Casualty Actuarial Society

Professional Education

Predictive Modeling
Limited Attendance Seminar

August 17-18, 2011
The Deloitte Building, 29th Floor Conference Center
Chicago, Illinois 60606-4301

General Information | Seminar Instructors

The Course is now Full. Registration has been closed. To be placed on a wait list please contact Leanne Wieczorek.


The Predictive Modeling Limited Attendance Seminar focuses on the practical issues involved in creating predictive models. Attendees will benefit from training in the following areas:

  • Data scrubbing and manipulation
  • Variable selection and modeling methodology
  • Model validation considerations
  • Interpreting predictive model results

The seminar will impart a systematic methodology for developing modeling solutions for property and casualty insurance business problems.

The curriculum will focus on the critical issues, and highlight common pitfalls, of developing such solutions. The seminar will provide a review of relevant statistical concepts and Generalized Linear Model [GLM] theory. However, the focus of the seminar will be on practical applications, rather than theoretical issues.

The seminar is designed to be accessible to actuaries with little or no predictive modeling experience. However, actuaries with predictive modeling experience have taken the seminar in past years and reported satisfaction with it. Note also that the predictive modeling workshop held at the 2011 CAS RPM seminar covered a subset of the material to be covered during the Limited Attendance Seminar.

The seminar is designed to be interactive in nature, enabling participants to manipulate and explore data, and build models and analyze models in real time along with the instructors. To this end, the seminar will include a self-contained introduction to the R statistical computing environment. R is a sophisticated and powerful modeling tool that is rapidly gaining attention both within and outside the actuarial profession. For more on R, see Glenn Meyers’ Actuarial Review article.

The seminar will present three business applications of predictive modeling:

  1. Factor optimization for an existing personal lines auto class plan using Generalized Linear Models to model pure premium
  2. Development of a personal auto "scorecard" model and integration with the underlying rating plan
  3. Development of a commercial lines pricing/underwriting algorithm.

Attendance is limited to a maximum of 35 students. Attendees will be selected on a first registered, first accepted basis. Participants are expected to bring their own laptop, loaded with the R software, to the seminar.


Date Time
August 17, 2011 8:30 a.m. - 5:30 p.m.
August 18, 2011 8:30 a.m. - 4:30 p.m.

A complete detailed schedule, may be found at, Predictive Modeling LAS Agenda*.
* Note: This is subject to change.


The Course is now Full. Registration has been closed. To be placed on a wait list please contact Leanne Wieczorek.

Registration Fees (in U.S. Dollars) If received
before July 29
If received
on/after July 29
CAS Member, or Active Candidate* $1,000 $1,100
Non-Members $1,200 $1,300

* An Active Candidate is a non-CAS member who has attempted at least one actuarial exam in the last two years.


The Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS) designates this educational activity for a maximum of up to16.8 CE Credits (not including pre reading requirements). Participants should claim credit commensurate with the extent of their participation in the activity. CAS members earn 1 CE Credit per 50 minutes of educational session time not to include breaks and/or lunch.

The CAS Code of Professional Conduct states that, “an actuary shall perform professional services when the actuary is qualified to do so and meets applicable qualification standards.” The American Academy of Actuaries (AAA) establishes qualification standards for public statements of actuarial opinion in the United States of America. Those standards require that actuaries update and maintain knowledge of applicable principles of actuarial science and actuarial standards of practice and their satisfaction through continuing education. The AAA publication Qualification Standards for Prescribed Statements of Actuarial Opinion provides a complete list of guidelines concerning continuing education. Actuaries attending a CAS seminar to satisfy AAA requirements should review all guidelines in that publication.


The seminar will be held at:

The Deloitte Building, 29th Floor Conference Center
111 S. Wacker Drive
Chicago, Illinois 60606-4301

The CAS does not have a designated room block for this event. The following hotels are within walking distance of the Deloitte Building:


The registration fee will be refunded for a cancellation received before August 10, 2011 less a $100 processing fee. Only written cancellations will be honored. Cancellation requests can be faxed to (703) 276-3108 and e-mailed to


For questions regarding registration information/confirmation, please email All other meeting questions should be emailed to

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