After some reactions to my earlier posting from helpful members, and a
little research myself, I have obtained the following interesting
1. The biggest risks lie between 3 and 7 years.
2. The risks become very large when the economy is running into a
3. When calculating claim reserves it is important to look at the
current interest rate vs the interest rate on which the mortgage is
My follow-up, a little more specific is this:
1. Could anybody tell me how large the possibility for default is (set)
in other countries?
2. Should we keep reserves for recession-years, and if so, should that
be a specified part of the premium?
3. Are there any other statistics available that I could use freely (my
company is not very rich, unfortunately)
Since there are no statistics available for China, I try to get an idea
of the situation abroad. Your input is highly appreciated.
Rob van Horssen, general insurance actuary
Tian An insurance company, China
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