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["v7","made after call w Alan 10/5\npurpose is to test a nonparametric model and implement some kind of overfitting testing "]
["v8","dropped extra name of Quadratic model, this one is just the quadratic model\nidentified circular references and cleaned it up"]

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[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Other papers and sources"]
[]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Beyond the Correlation Matrix: Guy Carpenter"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"https://www.casact.org/education/reinsure/2011/handouts/C2-Mango.pdf"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Ppt slides on pros/cons of correlation matrix usage in capital models."]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Don Mango - no longer with GC, not sure who else there would have experience in this space."]
[]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Moving Beyond History: A loss driver approach..."]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"https://www.casact.org/education/reinsure/2014/handouts/Paper_3349_handout_2145_0.pdf"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Eric Huang, Swiss Re"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Focuses on casualty risks, casuatly loss drivers. Like Praedicat."]
[]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Common Poisson Shock Models"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"https://www.casact.org/library/astin/vol33no2/209.pdf"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Filip Lindskog"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Very mathy."]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Honestly its just too complicated for me to read through. I get the feeling that"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"it doesn't really work on the same problem I have"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"it would be difficult to parameterize"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"a bit too academic"]
[]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Common Shock Model for Correlated Insurance Losses"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"https://www.casact.org/pubs/forum/06wforum/06w235.pdf"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Glenn Meyers"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Idea is to shock the parameters of the loss generating modules in the model."]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"!! Page 235 (5) of this document appears to have the derivation of a value we were looking for here for a very long time. Basically relationship of SD of beta multiplier and correlation of the two variables... but this one focuses more on the two correlated variables."]
[]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Advancements in Common Shock Modeling"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"http://www.casact.org/education/spring/2016/presentations/P-2-Ferrara.pdf"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Ming Li and Paul Ferrara"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Main problems with application"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"- Increases volatility of existing line models\n- Unpredictably induces correlation"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Those were my old issues. p16 and p21 seem to get right to the heart of what I needed in the old methodology where we were trying to get at the underlying idiosyncratic risk. They have derived formulas for it here. I'm still not sure how they have preserved the original distribution though. Seems they are still requiring certain forms which may or may not preserve the original."]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Needs to be researched and determine whether their approach solves the problem adequately. Still doesn't address parameterization of a risk driver which is the issue that our work with the PAECM group is supposed to be getting at."]

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[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Historical Data",null,null,"Table 1",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"S&P 500 Prediction"]
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["Year","S&P Composite","Dividend","Earnings","CPI","Long Interest Rate","Real Price","Real Dividend","Real Earnings","Cyclically Adjusted PE Ratio",null,null,null,"Date","1 MO","3 MO","6 MO","1 YR","2 YR","3 YR","5 YR","7 YR","10 YR","20 YR","30 YR",null,"Year","x1","x2","x3","x4","y","1yr prior","y-pred","simple growth"]
["2017-12-31",2659.99,48.17,104.02,246.54599999999999,2.37,2659.99,48.116720430760999,104.69561723582,32.441555635926001,{"$f":"B3*(1+R2/100)*1.02","v":2331.89410176},null,null,"2017-12-31",1.19,1.39,1.54,1.76,1.91,2,2.23,2.36,2.4300000000000002,2.6,2.75,null,2017,{"$f":"B3","v":2246.63},{"$f":"C3","v":45.7},{"$f":"R3","v":0.85},{"$f":"E3/E4-1","v":2.074622132966919E-2},{"$f":"B2","v":2659.99},{"$f":"B3","v":2246.63},{"$f":"$AK$4+SUMPRODUCT(AB2:AE2,$AL$4:$AO$4)","v":2415.220591023085},{"$f":"(B3+C3)*(1+R3/100)","v":2311.814805}]
["2016-12-31",2246.63,45.7,94.55,241.43199999999999,2.4900000000000002,2294.2179991881999,46.668015010437998,96.552753156167995,27.865098223924001,{"$f":"B4*(1+R3/100)*1.02","v":2112.9704735999999},null,null,"2016-12-31",0.44,0.51,0.62,0.85,1.2,1.47,1.93,2.25,2.4500000000000002,2.79,3.06,null,2016,{"$f":"B4","v":2054.08},{"$f":"C4","v":43.39},0.65,{"$f":"E4/E5-1","v":7.2951978604158807E-3},{"$f":"B3","v":2246.63},{"$f":"B4","v":2054.08},2318.5762467124205,{"$f":"(B4+C4)*(1+R4/100)","v":2111.1035549999997},null,5,4,3,2,1]
["2015-12-31",2054.08,43.39,86.53,236.52500000000001,2.2400000000000002,2141.1064694217998,45.228330789556999,90.196069675510003,25.965424037123999,2108.9752100999999,null,null,"2015-12-31",0.14000000000000001,0.16,0.49,0.65,1.06,1.31,1.76,2.09,2.27,2.67,3.01,null,2015,2054.27,39.44,0.25,7.564932696557447E-3,2054.08,2054.27,2247.5036245726997,2098.9442749999998,null,{"$f":"INDEX(LINEST(AF2:AF29,AB2:AE29,TRUE,FALSE),,AK3:AO3)","v":158.37786164698832},0.72045268292805198,16.553186422760398,10.42997987552574,-6126.1268770492698]
["2014-12-31",2054.27,39.44,102.31,234.81200000000001,2.21,2156.9257594159999,41.410891436553001,107.42262431221999,26.794085482572999,1848.545439,null,null,"2014-12-31",0.03,0.04,0.12,0.25,0.67,1.1000000000000001,1.65,1.97,2.17,2.4700000000000002,2.75,null,2014,1807.78,34.99,0.13,1.501735619618394E-2,2054.27,1807.78,1949.351473691202,1845.1656010000002]
["2013-12-31",1807.78,34.99,100.2,233.04900000000001,2.9,1912.4773239962001,37.016440920150004,106.00306888250999,24.861869296462,1452.6217565400002,null,null,"2013-12-31",0.01,7.0000000000000007E-2,0.1,0.13,0.38,0.78,1.75,2.4500000000000002,3.04,3.72,3.96,null,2013,1422.29,31.25,0.16,1.7410223687475579E-2,1807.78,1422.29,1595.3691412727901,1455.8656639999999]
["2012-12-31",1422.29,31.25,86.51,229.601,1.72,1527.2577660376,33.556310730353999,92.894606121053997,21.238261139845999,1270.2154982400002,null,null,"2012-12-31",0.02,0.05,0.11,0.16,0.25,0.36,0.72,1.18,1.78,2.54,2.95,null,2012,1243.32,26.43,0.12,2.9624188448710953E-2,1422.29,1243.32,1311.4018690572937,1271.2737000000002]
["2011-12-31",1243.32,26.43,86.95,225.672,1.98,1358.3234637881999,28.874697702860999,94.992620706157993,20.523575499431999,1267.8802327200001,null,null,"2011-12-31",0.01,0.02,0.06,0.12,0.25,0.36,0.83,1.35,1.89,2.57,2.89,null,2011,1241.53,22.73,0.28999999999999998,1.4957235273143077E-2,1243.32,1241.53,1340.4901816227477,1267.9263539999999]
["2010-12-31",1241.53,22.73,77.349999999999994,219.179,3.29,1396.5491921215,25.568099954830998,87.008030422622994,22.396379773044,1135.8721040400001,null,null,"2010-12-31",7.0000000000000007E-2,0.12,0.19,0.28999999999999998,0.61,1.02,2.0099999999999998,2.71,3.3,4.13,4.34,null,2010,1110.3800000000001,22.41,0.47,2.7213311262058282E-2,1241.53,1110.3800000000001,1167.5009124561934,1138.1141130000001]
["2009-12-31",1110.3800000000001,22.41,50.97,215.94900000000001,3.59,1267.7055577010999,25.585188447271999,58.191747218092999,20.322376500217,899.31822263999993,null,null,"2009-12-31",0.04,0.06,0.2,0.47,1.1399999999999999,1.7,2.69,3.39,3.85,4.58,4.63,null,2009,877.56,28.39,0.37,9.1412900645604367E-4,1110.3800000000001,877.56,1258.8223028979012,909.30201499999998]
["2008-12-31",877.56,28.39,14.88,210.22800000000001,2.42,1029.1631360237,33.294522803813003,17.450598778469001,15.376080747424,1514.3869762800002,null,null,"2008-12-31",0.11,0.11,0.27,0.37,0.76,1,1.55,1.87,2.25,3.05,2.69,null,2008,1479.22,27.73,3.34,4.0812685827551931E-2,877.56,1479.22,1467.9181800024896,1557.2821300000003]
["2007-12-31",1479.22,27.73,66.180000000000007,210.036,4.0999999999999996,1736.3488836199999,32.550232245901,77.683893618236993,25.955510105239998,1493.0029965600002,null,null,"2007-12-31",2.76,3.36,3.49,3.34,3.05,3.07,3.45,3.7,4.04,4.5,4.45,null,2007,1416.42,24.88,5,2.5406504065040636E-2,1479.22,1416.42,1487.1911609711401,1513.3650000000002]
["2006-12-31",1416.42,24.88,81.510000000000005,201.8,4.5599999999999996,1730.4890253717001,30.396751635282001,99.583570168484002,27.282689787572,1351.67697,null,null,"2006-12-31",4.75,5.0199999999999996,5.09,5,4.82,4.74,4.7,4.7,4.71,4.91,4.8099999999999996,null,2006,1262.07,22.22,4.38,3.4156594850236477E-2,1416.42,1262.07,1271.887059618017,1340.5419019999999]
["2005-12-31",1262.07,22.22,69.83,196.8,4.47,1581.0889746951,27.836646951220001,87.481235670732005,26.443803114291999,1276.7701059600001,null,null,"2005-12-31",4.01,4.08,4.37,4.38,4.41,4.37,4.3499999999999996,4.3600000000000003,4.3899999999999997,4.6100000000000003,null,null,2005,1199.21,19.440000000000001,2.75,3.255561584373301E-2,1262.07,1199.21,1173.3884790381119,1252.1628750000002]
["2004-12-31",1199.21,19.440000000000001,58.55,190.3,4.2300000000000004,1553.6543807672001,25.185781607987,75.855324750394004,27.144808694740998,1132.5647520000002,null,null,"2004-12-31",1.89,2.2200000000000002,2.59,2.75,3.08,3.25,3.63,3.94,4.24,4.8499999999999996,null,null,2004,1080.6400000000001,17.39,1.26,1.8794914317302513E-2,1199.21,1080.6400000000001,1122.7895057102592,1111.8651780000002]
["2003-12-31",1080.6400000000001,17.39,48.74,184.3,4.2699999999999996,1445.6183908844,23.263347476940002,65.201584590341994,26.635170511081999,928.71986135999998,null,null,"2003-12-31",0.9,0.95,1.02,1.26,1.84,2.37,3.25,3.77,4.2699999999999996,5.0999999999999996,null,null,2003,899.18,16.07,1.32,2.3769100169779289E-2,1080.6400000000001,899.18,940.35926093832632,927.33130000000006]
["2002-12-31",899.18,16.07,27.59,180.9,4.03,1225.4794487562001,21.901571144279,37.602012935323003,23.101442537686001,1183.2439375200001,null,null,"2002-12-31",1.2,1.22,1.23,1.32,1.61,1.99,2.78,3.36,3.83,4.83,5.37,null,2002,1144.93,15.74,2.17,1.551724137931032E-2,899.18,1144.93,1171.3653730644885,1185.8565390000001]
["2001-12-31",1144.93,15.74,24.69,176.7,5.09,1597.4980859083,21.961709337860999,34.449466553480001,30.499953255019999,1387.00740462,null,null,"2001-12-31",1.68,1.74,1.83,2.17,3.07,3.59,4.38,4.84,5.07,5.74,5.48,null,2001,1330.93,16.27,5.32,3.3868092691621943E-2,1144.93,1330.93,1234.577554059988,1418.87104]
["2000-12-31",1330.93,16.27,50,174,5.24,1885.8360217241,23.053467931034,70.846551724137996,37.274238004497001,1534.77949152,null,null,"2000-12-31",null,5.89,5.7,5.32,5.1100000000000003,5.0599999999999996,4.99,5.16,5.12,5.59,5.46,null,2000,1428.68,16.690000000000001,5.98,2.6845637583892579E-2,1330.93,1428.68,1361.8583798099444,1531.8031260000002]
["1999-12-31",1428.68,16.690000000000001,48.17,168.3,6.28,2092.9016000000001,24.449511229946999,70.565186096256994,44.197939761040999,1286.4392897999999,null,null,"1999-12-31",null,5.33,5.74,5.98,6.24,6.29,6.36,6.55,6.45,6.83,6.48,null,1999,1190.05,16.2,4.53,1.6119032858028515E-2,1428.68,1190.05,1232.4147654267579,1260.8931249999998]
["1998-12-31",1190.05,16.2,37.71,163.9,4.6500000000000004,1790.1285375228999,24.368793166564998,56.725135204392998,38.820274780098003,1026.0846682199999,null,null,"1998-12-31",null,4.4800000000000004,4.55,4.53,4.54,4.55,4.5599999999999996,4.7300000000000004,4.6500000000000004,5.39,5.09,null,1998,962.37,15.5,5.51,1.7023959646910614E-2,1190.05,962.37,1061.4725520366494,1031.7506369999999]
["1997-12-31",962.37,15.5,39.72,161.30000000000001,5.81,1470.9762803471999,23.691649101054001,60.711761438313999,33.030789042904999,799.88713649999988,null,null,"1997-12-31",null,5.36,5.45,5.51,5.66,5.68,5.71,5.77,5.75,6.02,5.93,null,1997,743.25,14.9,5.51,3.3224755700325792E-2,962.37,743.25,794.42691616737795,799.92406499999993]
["1996-12-31",743.25,14.9,38.729999999999997,158.6,6.3,1155.3929035309,23.162266078184,60.206346658260003,27.723946163893999,661.40146314000003,null,null,"1996-12-31",null,5.21,5.33,5.51,5.88,6.04,6.21,6.34,6.43,6.73,6.65,null,1996,614.57000000000005,13.79,5.18,2.5384101536406245E-2,743.25,614.57000000000005,727.93597684724455,660.9090480000001]
["1995-12-31",614.57000000000005,13.79,33.96,153.5,5.71,987.09951283388,22.148985928338998,54.545290944625002,25.027380664938999,488.34421884,null,null,"1995-12-31",null,5.0999999999999996,5.17,5.18,5.18,5.25,5.38,5.49,5.58,6.01,5.96,null,1995,455.19,13.17,7.2,2.6748971193415461E-2,614.57000000000005,455.19,615.55444731914884,502.08192000000003]
["1994-12-31",455.19,13.17,30.6,149.69999999999999,7.81,749.66782725451003,21.690119038075999,50.396176352704998,19.911484108090001,509.48836800000004,null,null,"1994-12-31",null,5.68,6.51,7.2,7.69,7.8,7.83,7.84,7.84,8.02,7.89,null,1994,465.95,12.58,3.63,2.748414376321362E-2,455.19,465.95,571.80134960328928,495.90063899999996]
["1993-12-31",465.95,12.58,21.89,145.80000000000001,5.77,787.91569753086003,21.272624691358001,37.015719753086003,21.164732079815,460.48280664000004,null,null,"1993-12-31",null,3.07,3.3,3.63,4.25,4.58,5.21,5.53,5.83,6.48,6.35,null,1993,435.64,12.39,3.61,2.9006526468455363E-2,465.95,435.64,537.2844141581686,464.20388299999996]
["1992-12-31",435.64,12.39,19.09,141.9,6.77,756.90838224101003,21.527166596194999,33.168168710358998,20.448606721242999,410.58591522,null,null,"1992-12-31",null,3.15,3.38,3.61,4.5599999999999996,5.12,6.04,6.43,6.7,null,7.4,null,1992,388.51,12.2,4.12,3.0642750373692129E-2,435.64,388.51,495.47994828522167,417.21925199999993]
["1991-12-31",388.51,12.2,15.97,137.9,7.09,694.60178723713,21.811901377809999,28.552136475707002,18.441652313513,349.14038999999997,null,null,"1991-12-31",null,3.96,4,4.12,4.7699999999999996,5.1100000000000003,5.93,6.38,6.71,null,7.41,null,1991,328.75,12.09,6.82,6.1062648691514898E-2,388.51,328.75,292.4096344289373,364.08528799999999]
["1990-12-31",328.75,12.09,21.34,133.80000000000001,8.08,605.76978699552001,22.277586995516,39.322060089685998,15.846314974728999,379.82201040000001,null,null,"1990-12-31",null,6.63,6.73,6.82,7.15,7.4,7.68,8,8.08,null,8.26,null,1990,348.6,11.06,{"$f":"AD28","v":6.82},4.647302904564321E-2,328.75,348.6,379.03869920811655,359.66]
["1989-12-31",348.6,11.06,22.87,126.1,7.84,681.56967168914002,21.624098017445998,44.714567961935003,17.650212904947001,282.03000000000003]
["1988-12-31",276.5,9.75,23.75,120.5,9.11,565.72588381743003,19.948742738589001,48.593091286307001,14.702086748572,245.82,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,{"$f":"SUM((AG2:AG29-$AF$2:$AF$29)^2)","v":1271962.9786999999},{"$f":"SUM((AH2:AH29-$AF$2:$AF$29)^2)","v":811342.77494227421},{"$f":"SUM((AI2:AI29-$AF$2:$AF$29)^2)","v":1184051.7749340853}]
["1987-12-31",241,8.81,17.5,115.4,8.99,514.88376083188996,18.822099306759,37.387824956671999,13.389028514427,253.572]
["1986-12-31",248.6,8.2799999999999994,14.48,110.5,7.11,554.67272036198995,18.474216108596998,32.307566334842001,14.085139814743,211.44600000000003]
["1985-12-31",207.3,7.9,14.61,109.3,9.26,467.60279780421001,17.819884720952,32.955508325708998,11.690521474467999,167.79]
["1984-12-31",164.5,7.53,16.64,105.3,11.5,385.15495726495999,17.630497435896999,38.960355555555999,9.5950548011335002,0]