model {
  logloss[1]~dnorm(mu[1],1/sig2[1])
  for(i in 2:10){
     logloss[i]~dnorm(mu[i]+z*(logloss[i-1]-mu[i-1]),1/sig2[i])
  }
  logloss[11]~dnorm(mu[11],1/sig2[11])
  for(i in 12:19){
     logloss[i]~dnorm(mu[i]+z*(logloss[i-1]-mu[i-1]),1/sig2[i])
  }
  logloss[20]~dnorm(mu[20],1/sig2[20])
  for(i in 21:27){
     logloss[i]~dnorm(mu[i]+z*(logloss[i-1]-mu[i-1]),1/sig2[i])
  }
  logloss[28]~dnorm(mu[28],1/sig2[28])
  for(i in 29:34){
     logloss[i]~dnorm(mu[i]+z*(logloss[i-1]-mu[i-1]),1/sig2[i])
  }  
  logloss[35]~dnorm(mu[35],1/sig2[35])
  for(i in 36:40){
     logloss[i]~dnorm(mu[i]+z*(logloss[i-1]-mu[i-1]),1/sig2[i])
  }  
  logloss[41]~dnorm(mu[41],1/sig2[41])
  for(i in 42:45){
     logloss[i]~dnorm(mu[i]+z*(logloss[i-1]-mu[i-1]),1/sig2[i])
  }  
  logloss[46]~dnorm(mu[46],1/sig2[46])
  for(i in 47:49){
     logloss[i]~dnorm(mu[i]+z*(logloss[i-1]-mu[i-1]),1/sig2[i])
  }
  logloss[50]~dnorm(mu[50],1/sig2[50])
  for(i in 51:52){
     logloss[i]~dnorm(mu[i]+z*(logloss[i-1]-mu[i-1]),1/sig2[i])
  }
  logloss[53]~dnorm(mu[53],1/sig2[53])
  logloss[54]~dnorm(mu[54]+z*(logloss[53]-mu[53]),1/sig2[54])
  logloss[55]~dnorm(mu[55],1/sig2[55])
#
# set up sig2
#
  for (i in 1:length(w)){
    sig2[i]<-sigd2[d[i]]
  }
  for (j in 1:10){
    sigd2[j]<-sum(a[j:10])
  }
  for (k in 1:10){
    a[k]~dunif(0.000001,1)
  }
#
# set up log-means     
#
  for (i in 1:length(w)){
    mu[i]<-level[w[i]] + dev[d[i]]
  }
#
# specify priors
#
  for (i in 1:numlev){
    level[i]~dunif(0,maxlev)
    }
  dev[1]<-0 
  for (i in 2:10){
    dev[i]~dunif(-5,5)
    }
  z~dunif(-1,1)
}