Adjusting Size of Loss Distributions for Trend [Review]

The stated aim of this lucid and straightforward paper is to forecast the shape (rather than the mean) of a size-of-loss distribution in some future time period, and this aim is accomplished in a clear presentation which I can still read even ten years away from any hard mathematics. I can see the practical uses more clearly if I think of the subject as stratification of Trend by layer of coverage, which immediately brings to mind applications to Excess-of-Loss reinsurance pricing, Increased Limits Tables, and Loss Elimination Ratios. That image is a bit unfair to authors, however, because trend by layer is but one specific and deductive result from their more general development. Applications to such arcane areas as Risk Theory, which might flow from projected future changes in the variance, skewness, et cetera, are beyond my review, but I suspect such applications exist. Loss Distributions, Increased Limits, Excess of Loss