Calculation of Probability Levels for Loss Reserves

It is well known that actual future losses for most lines of business will certainly not equal their estimated value. In order to provide a measure of the precision of loss reserve estimates a diversity of procedures for quantifying loss reserve variability are currently in use. Many of these procedures have significant limitations, while others are not well understood and therefore are rarely used. In 1992 the CAS Committee on the Theory of Risk sponsored a prize paper competition on Calculating Probability Levels for Loss Reserves. Eighteen papers were submitted to the committee. Two papers - A Method to Estimate Probability Levels for Loss Reserves and Unbiased Loss Development Factors - will be presented by their authors. The first paper explores an application of the collective risk mode. The second paper applies regression theory to the loss development triangle.