A Comparative Analysis Of Methods Of Health Risk Assessment; SOA Monograph M-HB96-1

This monograph reports the results of a study of the relative performance of different risk assessment methods and risk adjustment systems. It had three main objectives: (1) to compare the predictive accuracy of different risk assessment methods, (2) to compare the different risk assessment methods based on other criteria, including administrative practicality, ability to resist manipulation and "gaming" by insurers, and incentives for efficiency, and (3) to explore the potential for risk adjustment using a list of high-cost conditions.