A Comparison of Actuarial Financial Scenario Generators

Significant work on the modeling of asset returns and other economic and financial processes is occurring within the actuarial profession, in support of risk-based capital analysis, dynamic financial analysis, pricing embedded options, solvency testing, and other financial applications. Although the results of most modeling efforts remain proprietary, two models are in the public domain. One is the CAS-SOA research project, Modeling of Economic Series Coordinated with Interest Rate Scenarios. The other was developed as the result of American Academy of Actuaries study in support of the C-3 Phase 2 RBC for Variable Annuities. Both data sets provide practitioners with a large number of iterations for key financial values, including short- and longterm interest rates and equity returns. This paper examines the role of stochastic modeling in actuarial work, focusing on a comparison of the underlying models and their outputs, to determine the impact of the use of different assumptions and parameter selection on the modeling process.