Abstract
We study solvency of insurers in a practical model where in addition to basic insurance claims and premiums, economic factors like inflation, real growth and returns on the investments affect the capital developments of the companies. The objective is to give qualitative descriptions of risks by means of crude estimates for finite time ruin probabilities. In our setup, the economic factors have a dominant role in the estimates. In addition to this theoretical view, we will focus on applied interpretations of the results by means of discussions and examples.
The first version of the paper was presented in ASTIN Colloquium in Helsinki 2009. The colloquium was dedicated to Teivo Pentikäinen.
Keywords: Ruin probability, inflation, real growth, investment, cycle, large deviation.
Volume
Vol. 40, No. 2
Page
1-27
Year
2010
Categories
Financial and Statistical Methods
Asset and Econometric Modeling
Inflation
Financial and Statistical Methods
Risk Pricing and Risk Evaluation Models
Probability of Ruin
Actuarial Applications and Methodologies
Investments
Publications
ASTIN Bulletin
