Elements of Time-Series Analysis in Liability and Property Insurance Ratemaking [Discussion]

Time series, particularly in their cyclic behavior, possess an almost occult fascination. Recognition of their importance can be traced back millennia to priesthoods founded upon ability to predict seasonal events such as the annual flooding of the Nile and the Euphrates. In our time economists and laymen alike seek to read the future movement of prices and indices from trends and cycles perceived in records of the past. McGuinness points out that our Proceedings contain very little on the subject, which is perhaps surprising for a profession dedicated to prediction, and his paper is very welcome.