An Introduction to Credibility Theory [Discussion]

Mr. Carlson has given you a rather complete picture of statistical developments in casualty insurance. His picture was a general overall view of the business and its statistical problems. It would appear that it can be discussed only by describing, in somewhat more detail, one or more aspects of that picture. Active statisticians in other fields, teachers of insurance in general, or teachers of statistical techniques, whether of insurance or not, should be especially interested in those philosophies of casualty insurance which serve to make its statistical procedures different from those of other fields. For those of us who are active in the statistics of casualty insurance, it is good to pause occasionally and to meditate on the reasons why we do things differently in our business. For these reasons I have chosen to enlarge on Mr. Carlson's presentation by dwelling on differences, particularly the differences in the philosophies or beliefs of casualty insurance statisticians and those in other fields. I will mention specifically three beliefs held by casualty people which have produced procedures, either peculiar to that field, or found only occasionally in other fields.