Introduction to Reprints of Risk and Uncertainty: A Fallacy of Large Numbers and 'Portfolio of Risky Projects'

The Paper “Risk and Uncertainty: A Fallacy of Large Numbers” by Paul A. Samuelson, was published in Scientia in April-May, 1963. It was later reprinted in the Collected Scientific Papers of Paul A. Samuelson, Volume 1, pp- 153-8, MIT Press, 1966 _ It had a very distinguished influence on the ideas of risk and portfolio for investment applications. The paper first got the attention of Pratt, Zeckhauser, and other mathematical economists and thereby spawned several related papers. Unfortunately it apparently did not reach the one group most concerned with property and casualty insurance. We hope that the current republication will rectify this.