Loss Reserving in the Sixties [Author's Review of Discussion]

The author is grateful for the detailed discussion by Mr. Berquist. It shows that even after optimistic assumptions made by the reviewer the reserves still look inadequate. The questions arises as to how optimistic the reviewer was? Here I have a problem since his most optimistic results are derived by a "trend line" which was drawn, presumable freehand, by "inspection of past values." I do not know how to examine the validity of assumptions underlying such a procedure.