Note on an Application of Bayes' Rule in the Classification of Hazards inExperience Rating

In a recent review in the Journal of the Royal Statistical Society of my treatise on "The Mathematical Theory of Probabilities" under the discussion of the sixth chapter, dealing with Bayes' Theorem, the reviewer states" "Upon the whole we agree with Mr. Fisher's conclusions respecting the theorem, but we should need much space to define our exact measure of agreement. We may, however, remark that the real value of Bayes' principle seems to reside in its application to the study of consistency, that is to say to the problem of determining whether two or more samples can properly be regarded as having been derived from one and the same ' universe.' This aspect of the matter has not engaged Mr. Fisher's attention."