Currently celebrating its 100th year, the Casualty Actuarial Society fulfills its mission to advance actuarial science through a singular focus on research and education for property/casualty actuarial practice. Among its 6,200 members are experts in property-casualty insurance, reinsurance, finance, risk management, and enterprise risk management. The Casualty Actuarial Society has created a Task Force on Automated Vehicles (CAS AVTF) to research the technology’s risks and their implications for insurance and risk management. To this end, the Task Force has re-evaluated the NMVCCS in the context of an automated vehicle world. It found that automated vehicles can be expected to address up to 51% of accidents, not the 93% that is commonly referenced. The safety of automated vehicles should not be determined by today’s standards; things that cause accidents today may or may not cause accidents in an automated vehicle era. Rather, things like the vehicle’s failure rate (after accounting for any fail-safes, infrastructure investments, and driver interactions) and unavoidable accidents (e.g., falling rocks) should be the gauge by which they should be measured. Safety metrics should also consider additional criteria that would not be part of today’s standards and safety concerns, as automation introduces additional risks to consider.
This report details the CAS AVTF’s re-evaluation of the NMVCCS and notes areas for future research.
Keywords: automated vehicles, risk management
