Some Further Notes on Estimating Ultimate Incurred Losses in Auto Liability Insurance

In a previous paper I described how auto liability incurred losses emerged in New York State on the average. One of the puzzling notes about that paper may be Equation (4) (see Volume XLV, 1958 Proceedings of the Casualty Actuarial Society) : (formula) which has the extraordinary virtue of being able to describe how much of the total losses incurred has been paid as of a given time but does not describe the forces which contribute to the total amounts paid.