Some Notes on Credibility

The following notes arose out of current problems in rate making, principally automobile, and while arranged in some sort of logical order, are more or less separate. They cover a wide range of aspects of credibility and do not pretend to be either a complete study of the subject or even a complete survey of the specific points discussed. Indeed, as regards a good many principles of credibility (including some of the fundamental) actuarial opinion does not seem to be formed and one of the reasons for these notes is to provoke discussion of the whole subject, which is of increasing importance today on account of the great attention being paid by the carriers, the supervising authorities and the public to rates, especially automobile liability rates.