Unbiased Loss Development Factors by Daniel M. Murphy [Discussion]

Abstract
This paper challenges the conclusion of Murphy’s paper that the simple average development factor method and the weighted average development factor method are unbiased. The author states that these two methods are, in fact, biased upwards. He claims that Murphy’s results are incorrect because Murphy’s models have unrealistic properties. The author then presents statistical support for his assertion.
Volume
LXXXII
Page
72-77
Year
1995
Categories
Actuarial Applications and Methodologies
Reserving
Reserving Methods
Actuarial Applications and Methodologies
Ratemaking
Trend and Loss Development
Publications
Proceedings of the Casualty Actuarial Society
Authors
Daniel F Gogol