2017 Introduction to Applied Statistics Limited Attendance Seminar

Applied statistical knowledge is important to Casualty Actuaries in their core areas of practice: reserving and ratemaking. Predictive modeling is also a tool that is increasingly being embraced by insurance companies, and knowledge of applied statistics is a foundation for understanding predictive models.

In recognition of the need to educate actuaries on predictive modeling, the CAS and Canadian Institute of Actuaries sponsored a book on predictive modeling that focuses on insurance applications and examples. Because we view the book as a tool for analytics for actuaries, we recommend it as a resource for students attending the course. We recommend that participants read chapter 2 “Overview of Linear Models” of Volume 1 of the book "Predictive Modeling Applications in Actuarial Science".

In addition, we will incorporate concepts from a Facilitators Guide to “Testing Assumptions Underlying Estimates of Loss Reserves” that was developed as a project of the Committee on the Theory of Risk. The tests in the guide and in the paper that provided the motivation for the project are primarily regression based and can be applied using Microsoft Excel. We will supply several data sets relevant to common actuarial applications to use for the in-class exercises.

This course will cover topics needed to use, understand and apply basic analytics modeling methods with an emphasis on linear models and regression as well as an introduction to generalized linear models (GLMs). This course will stress a hands-on approach. The software required to do the homework and exercises will be Microsoft Excel and R. We recommend that students download and install R. As an editor for R, we recommend RStudio but Notepad and Word will work. Advanced knowledge and experience in R will not be required. The first hour in the morning of the first day will provide a brief overview of all the topics to be covered along with a more detailed review of some introductory topics.

OBJECTIVE

The seminar will introduce applied statistics to actuaries so that attendees will understand the statistical underpinnings of commonly used actuarial methods, such as the chain ladder reserving method and common approaches used in ratemaking. Also participants will have the ability to use applied statistical models in Excel and R. The course focus includes applications to reserving, ratemaking and claims databases. This course will be appropriate for both actuarial students and more experienced actuaries. However, it will assume that participants are familiar with basic reserving and ratemaking methods.

At the course’s conclusion, the students should have gained a general understanding of statistics used in common actuarial applications, along with the theory underlying the use of specific statistics. The participants should be able to interpret the statistical work of other actuaries and statisticians and be able to apply the methods introduced in the course, particularly regression and logistic regression, in their own work.

CONTINUING EDUCATION CREDIT

The CAS Continuing Education Policy applies to all ACAS and FCAS members who provide actuarial services. Actuarial services are defined in the CAS Code of Professional Conduct as “professional services provided to a Principal by an individual acting in the capacity of an actuary. Such services include the rendering of advice, recommendations, findings, or opinions based upon actuarial considerations.”

Members who are or could be subject to the continuing education requirements of a national actuarial organization can meet the requirements of the CAS Continuing Education Policy by satisfying the continuing education requirements established by a national actuarial organization recognized by the Policy.

Participants should claim credit commensurate with the extent of their participation in the activity. CAS members earn 1 CE Credit per 50 minutes of educational session time not to include breaks or meals.

Note: The amount of CE credit that can be earned for participating in this activity must be assessed by the individual attendee. It also may be different for individuals who are subject to the requirements of organizations other than the American Academy of Actuaries.

CONTACT INFORMATION

• For more information on content, please contact Nora Potter, Education Coordinator, at npotter@casact.org.
• For more information on attendee registration, please email the Actuaries' Resource Center at arc@casact.org.
• For more information on the Seminar other than registration or content issues, please email meetings@casact.org.
• For more information on other CAS opportunities or regarding administrative policies such as complaints and refunds, please contact the CAS Office at (703) 276-3100 or office@casact.org.