Modeling Financial Scenarios: A Framework for the Actuarial Profession

This paper summarizes the research project on Modeling of Economic Series Coordinated with Interest Rate Scenarios initiated by the joint request for proposals by the Casualty Actuarial Society and the Society of Actuaries. The project involved the construction of a financial scenario model that simulates a variety of economic variables over a 50-year period. The variables projected by this model include interest rates, inflation, equity returns, dividend yields, real estate returns, and unemployment rates. This paper contains a description of the key issues involved in modeling these series, a review of the primary literature in this area, an explanation of parameter selection issues, and an illustration of the model’s output. The paper is intended to serve as a practical guide to understanding the financial scenario model in order to facilitate the use of this model for such actuarial applications as dynamic financial analysis, development of solvency margins, cash flow testing, operational planning, and other financial analyses of insurer operations.