Policy-Level Unreported Frequency Model for Pure IBNR Estimation

The paper develops a policy-level unreported claim frequency distribution for use in individual claim reserving models. Recently, there has been increased interest in using individual claim detail to estimate reserves and to understand variability around reserve estimates. The method we describe can aid in the estimation/simulation of pure incurred but not reported (IBNR) from individual claim and policy data. In addition to a point estimate, the method can provide a full distribution of claim emergence, which can be useful for diagnostic tests (i.e., actual versus expected analyses) and to understand reserve variability.