2018 Reserve Variability Limited Attendance Seminar

PURPOSE

This seminar is designed to enhance the skills of the practicing actuary with regard to fitting and using and communicating results from loss reserve models. Emphasis in the seminar will be on the process of moving from deterministic methods for estimating a single point to stochastic models for estimating a distribution. The learning objectives include:

• Review of Statistical Concepts
• Understanding of Ranges vs. Distributions
• Knowledge of Statistical Modeling Techniques
• Hands on Use of Models, with Emphasis on Simulation Models
• Understanding of Diagnostic Testing
• Understanding of Model Strengths & Weaknesses
• A Better Understanding of Quantifying and Communicating Uncertainty

TARGET AUDIENCE

The target audience for this seminar is actuaries that are new to statistical / probabilistic reserving or that wants a ground up refresher course. While some review of the theoretical underpinnings will be included, the emphasis will be on practical aspects of using stochastic models.

PREPARATION

A review of basic statistical concepts and an exercise set will be sent out prior to the start of the seminar. Attendees are expected to understand these concepts and a pre-seminar teleconference may be scheduled to answer questions.

Attendees are encouraged to read sections 1 through 3.1(pages 1-24) of the Working Party on Quantifying Variability in Reserve Estimates final report prior to the seminar. However, no prior knowledge of the concepts and models in this report will be assumed. The seminar will be organized around the practical issues discussed in the Working Party report, including a hands-on look at several stochastic models.

Attendees are encouraged to bring the following:

• A laptop computer that has Microsoft Excel loaded (2003 or later version recommended - earlier versions should still work, but the instructors cannot guarantee this ahead of time). The instructors will be using and distributing Excel files and using add-in tools to do numerical calculations. Be sure that the Analysis ToolPak, Analysis ToolPak - VBA and Solver Add-Ins for Excel are installed on your machine. Files will be distributed via email before the seminar and on a flash drive at the seminar.
• Questions for the instructors.
• This will assist them in covering topics of interest to the audience.
• Questions submitted via the registration form or email prior to the seminar will be given priority.
• Their own data for analysis provided that:
• it can be shared with the other attendees,
• it is 10 x 10 annual by annual symmetrical data,
• it is submitted to the instructors at least two weeks prior to the seminar, and
• the instructors reserve the right not to review specific data sets in class due to time constraints.

Attendance is limited to a maximum of 40 participants. Attendees will be selected on a first registered, first accepted basis. Participants are expected to bring their own laptop to the seminar.

CANCELLATIONS

The registration fee will be refunded for a cancellation received before October 24, 2018 less a $100 processing fee. Only written cancellations will be honored. Cancellation requests can be faxed to (703) 276-3108 and e-mailed to refund@casact.org.

CONTINUING EDUCATION CREDIT

The CAS Continuing Education Policy applies to all ACAS and FCAS members who provide actuarial services. Actuarial services are defined in the CAS Code of Professional Conduct as “professional services provided to a Principal by an individual acting in the capacity of an actuary.

Such services include the rendering of advice, recommendations, findings, or opinions based upon actuarial considerations.” Members who are or could be subject to the continuing education requirements of a national actuarial organization can meet the requirements of the CAS Continuing Education Policy by satisfying the continuing education requirements established by a national actuarial organization recognized by the Policy.

CAS members earn 1 CE Credit per 50 minutes of educational session time, not to include breaks or lunch.

Note: The amount of CE credit that can be earned for participating in this activity must be assessed by the individual attendee. It also may be different for individuals who are subject to the requirements of organizations other than the American Academy of Actuaries.

CONTACT INFORMATION

• For more information on content, please contact Sarah Lummis at slummis@casact.or.
• For more information on attendee registration, please email the Actuaries' Resource Center at arc@casact.org.
• For more information on the Seminar other than registration or content issues, please email meetings@casact.org.
• For more information on other CAS opportunities or regarding administrative policies such as complaints and refunds, please contact the CAS Office at (703) 276-3100 or office@casact.org.