Latent Exposures
This panel will discuss both new and more established latent liabilities, including an update on recent developments with asbestos, and a discussion of new torts such as toxic mold, tobacco, MTBE, lead, and alcohol. A brief discussion will follow of how these liabilities can effect the balance sheet and value of insurance and reinsurance companies.
Source:
2001 Seminar on Reinsurance
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Olivia Giuntini
Panelists:
Jennifer Biggs, Michael Frantz
Keywords:
latent liabilities, new torts, insurance and reinsurance companies
Advanced Reinsurance Reserving Topics
Using stochastic methods to reserve for finite reinsurance contracts is the first of two topics to be discussed in this session. The session will also introduce the concept of "speed-of-settlement" contracts as a reinsurance product being offered to offshore reinsurers. The presentation will focus on how to quantify an accurate liability for these types of contracts from a statutory accounting perspective, with an emphasis on using stochastic methods to determine a release of reserves and, thus, an earning of profits on these contracts.
The second topic will be on analyzing and negotiating commutations of reinsurance contracts. The session will focus on the key issues that arise during negotiations and the challenges in performing actuarial analysis of these commutations.
Source:
2001 Seminar on Reinsurance
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Olivia Giuntini
Panelists:
Sandra Santomenno, Jeffrey Davis
Keywords:
stochastic methods to reserve for finite reinsurance, statutory accounting perspective, stochastic methods
Workers Compensation
The panelists will discuss current conditions and recent developments in workers compensation. Topics will include legislative and regulatory activity, trends in loss frequency and severity, and an analysis of medical costs. Issues affecting both prorata and excess of loss reinsurance will be discussed.
Source:
2001 Seminar on Reinsurance
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Frank Pierson
Panelists:
Kay Rahardjo, Barbara Stahley
Keywords:
current conditions and recent developments in workers compensation, legislative and regulatory activity, trends in loss frequency and severity, analysis of medical costs
Specialty Lines Pricing
This session will focus on the pricing and underwriting of non-standard classes of business, with a focus on surety and auto residual insurance. The first speaker will provide an overview of surety inside and outside the US; he will also focus on key underwriting considerations for reinsurers. The next speaker will present an actuarial approach to pricing surety excess of loss reinsurance contracts, and will also touch on relationship of historical profitability and the economic cycle. The final speaker will discuss his approach for analyzing auto residual value insurance.
Source:
2001 Seminar on Reinsurance
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Frank Pierson
Panelists:
Gerson Smith, Christopher Steinbach, Eduardo Paternoster
Keywords:
pricing and underwriting of non-standard classes of business, analyzing auto residual value insurance
Reinsurance Options and Derivatives
This session will explore derivative instruments available in the marketplace and methods used to price and evaluate these products. Accounting treatments and FASB 133, which governs accounting for derivative instruments, will also be discussed.
Source:
2001 Seminar on Reinsurance
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Steven White
Panelists:
Philip Kane, Philippe Joly
Keywords:
derivative instruments, Accounting treatments and FASB 133
Propery Catastrophe Models: Different Results From Three Models; Now What Do I Do?
Reinsurers and insurers have long struggled with sorting through the significant differences that exists when analyzing results generated by multiple catastrophe models. Representatives from three prominent catastrophe modeling firms will discuss potential reasons underlying these differences in opinions. Each modeling firm will select unique region and peril to discuss. They will also introduce the latest scientific opinion for that area. This general session should provide fascinating insight into catastrophe models. It will be followed by a concurrent session with the same panel, which will allow more material to be covered and facilitate further discussion with the audience.
Source:
2001 Seminar on Reinsurance
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Steven White
Panelists:
Rick Clinton, Robert Muir-Wood, Karen Clark
Keywords:
Reinsurers and insurers, catastrophe models
Update on Lloyd's
It has been five years since Parliament approved (Reconstruction and Renewal) R&R, and eight years since the introduction of corporate capital with limited liability into Lloyd's. Following the successful defense against fraud allegations brought in the Jaffray case, is Lloyd's now ready to reclaim past glory or will it continue to struggle with enormous industry losses, an antiquated accounting system, and too slowly recovering market conditions?
To shed light on this question, this session will feature: a company director without actuarial responsibilities, the actuary for a prominent Lloyd's managing agency, and the Lloyd's Chief Analyst who serves a regulatory function. For those less familiar with Lloyd's, the panel will offer an overview as well.
Source:
2001 Spring Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Steven Lehmann
Panelists:
Julian Ross, Douglas Morton
Keywords:
Reconstruction and Renewal, corporate capital with limited liability, actuarial responsibilities
Homeowners Classification Issues
Over the years, homeowners insurance has moved from being a package policy designed to combine the basic property and liability coverages in a single premium policy that was simple to rate, into a more complex package of coverages. That package has become, in a sense, a one-stop shopping venue for all the homeowners' insurance needs. However, until recently the basic rating scheme of the homeowners policy has followed the underlying fire rating logic-building amount of insurance, territory (including fire protection), and construction. The past few years have seen the implementation of different risk classification variables. These have included the insureds credit history, claims history and age of owner and number of occupants. This panel will discuss these and other emerging homeowners classification issues
Source:
2001 Spring Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Philip Heckman
Panelists:
Kay Cleary, Jeffrey Kucera, John Bargagallo
Keywords:
homeowners insurance, basic property and liability coverages, liability coverages in a single premium policy, risk classification variables
Statistical Distribution of Losses-Evolution Over Time
Three distinct papers, describing loss reserving research commissioned by the CAS Committee on the Theory of Risk, are the focus of this session.
The incurred losses of some period of time (accident year, policy year, and others) are estimated by some loss reserving techniques from time to time. The estimated incurred losses can accordingly be regarded as a function of development time (age measured from period of origin). Conventionally, the estimated incurred losses are point estimates. Alternatively, a full distribution of incurred losses may be estimated at each point of development time. It may be noted that:
At any point of time prior to the underwriting of the claims associated with the period of origin, this distribution will be based entirely on a prior in the Bayesian sense, due to total absence of loss data.
At any point after settlement of the final claim, the distribution will have collapsed to a single point, the realized amount of incurred losses.
At intermediate points, the distribution will need to compromise between the prior and the realized losses, as they materialize. Its dispersion should gradually shrink with increasing development over time.
The research described here is concerned with estimating the distribution of incurred losses, as it evolves with development time. Three distinct approaches are taken to this question, reflecting three different families of loss reserving models. The three approaches, in increasing order of complexity, are nonparametric models, parametric models, and dynamic models.
Source:
2001 Spring Meeting
Type:
Paper
Moderators:
Matthew Hayden
Panelists:
Greg Taylor
Keywords:
loss reserving research, Committee on the Theory of Risk, loss reserving techniques
The Changing Nature of Workers Compensation
Conditions in the early 90s led to an improving workers compensation market. Benefit reforms, more sophisticated use of managed care, adequate rate levels, and the availability of cheap reinsurance made selling workers compensation insurance a profitable venture. Events of the late 90s however, have diminished the gains made in the early part of the decade. Intense price competition, developments in the reinsurance market, increases in loss costs, rising medical inflation, and increased pressure to boost benefit levels have lead to a deterioration in results. Also on the horizon are proposed OSHA regulations that may lead to broader benefits as well as privacy concerns with medical data.
This panel will review the recent history in this line, comment on the current and future pressures, and will suggest solutions to resolve the dilemma that the market is currently experiencing.
Source:
2001 Spring Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Robert Conger
Panelists:
Richard Hofmann, Oakley VanSlyke, Susan Fisch
Keywords:
workers compensation market, managed care, adequate rate levels, and the availability of cheap reinsurance
Workers Compensation Insurers in Transition
In recent years, some significant players in the workers compensation business have changed their stripes: state funds privatized; assigned risk pools replaced or supplemented by new state funds; self-insurance pools converted to insurance companies; and some established pools and insurers failed, while others were acquired and absorbed by larger entities. Panelists will share their organizations' experience: How did these entities make the transition? How have they weathered the prolonged soft market? What lies ahead? And, what is the role of the actuary in contributing to these results?
Source:
2001 Spring Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Ralph Blanchard
Panelists:
Douglas Dirks, Roger Fries, Wayne Johnson, Fred Lowe
Keywords:
workers compensation
The Martin Frankel Case: Can It Happen Again?
Martin Frankel was a rogue financier who allegedly masterminded a scam in which in excess of $200 million was stolen from insurers, to be "invested" in Frankel-related entities. A recent report from the Government Accounting Office (GAO) blamed state regulators for allowing the alleged scam to grow. The GAO report noted that there was inadequate communication among various regulators of financial services and that odd patterns of investment should have raised the suspicions of the state regulators whose job it was to monitor insurer solvency. GAO found these state regulators to be too trusting and urged that they employ a measure of "healthy skepticism" in performing their jobs.
GAO raises questions regarding state insurance regulators' ability to guard against a recurrence of such fraudulent activities. It urges all insurance departments to increase their level of expertise in analysis of securities and detection of unusual patterns. It urges more communication between insurance and securities regulators. The NAIC Ad Hoc Task Force on Solvency and Anti-Fraud has issued its report, recommending, among other things, that the financial examination include an evaluation of risk-assessment practices of insurers.
Source:
2001 Spring Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Christopher Daykin
Panelists:
Michael Moriarty, Brady Kelley, James Black
Keywords:
Government Accounting Office (GAO), regulators of financial services, investmen
The Global Village: Casualty Actuaries Meeting the Challenges of International Markets
The international insurance landscape is changing rapidly as insurers adjust to rate deregulation, new threats to solvency, new financial products, and other opportunities. Property/casualty actuaries are increasingly working outside of North America in a variety of roles. In the U.S., those with specialized property/casualty education and training are recognized as the "experts" in such areas. As the international marketplace evolves, will actuaries be successful in demonstrating expertise to their customers and, more important, the need for that expertise? What new skills and knowledge should the actuary develop in order to play a key role? What types of regulatory tools will be developed to monitor this changing industry?
Our moderator, England's government actuary, has observed the international scene for many years. Our panelists also have broad experience with markets in Europe, Asia and Latin America.
Source:
2001 Spring Meeting
Type:
general
Moderators:
William Miller
Panelists:
Robert Anker, Jay Morrow, Luis Huerta
Keywords:
international insurance landscape, rate deregulation, new threats to solvency, new financial products
Proceedings Papers- Is the Efficient Frontier Efficient?
CAS Proceedings Papers that have been recently approved by the Committee on Review of Papers, and discussions of previously published Proceedings Papers will be presented at this meeting.
Source:
2001 Annual Meeting
Type:
Paper
Panelists:
Gerald Kirschner, William Blatcher, William Scheel, John Denman
Keywords:
CAS Proceedings Papers
Workers Compensation
Benefit reforms, more sophisticated use of managed care, adequate rate levels, and the availability of cheap reinsurance made the selling of workers compensation insurance a profitable venture for much of the last decade. Today, we see a return to combined ratios in the 120's, which is a return to the levels of the late 1980's when the line was frequently described as being in a state of crisis. In particular, California has been highlighted for its intense price competition which came about from competitive rating introduced in 1995.
Focusing on the California marketplace, this panel will also review the recent countrywide history in this line as well as comment on the current and future pressures that the market is currently experiencing.
Source:
2001 Annual Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Eric Simpson
Panelists:
Stacy Mina, Jeffrey Estabrook, Robert Meyer
Keywords:
Benefit reforms, workers compensation, more sophisticated use of managed care, adequate rate levels
The Rating Agency's View
The aftermath of the WTC tragedy will have profound implications for the (re) insurance industry, least of which will be heightened ratings downgrade activity and analytical vigilance on the part of the rating agencies. Two senior officers from leading rating firms will address:
Industry capacity to absorb more terrorist losses and ongoing cat, reserve, and investment risks.
Ultimate WTC losses and likely market implications
Analytical assumptions for identifying and downgrading weakened (re)insurers.
Market outlooks for product lines and sectors most affected by the WTC disaster
The key drivers of a company's rating, including any significant change in ratings criteria or philosophy
Impact on rating agency capital adequacy models (e.g. capital factors; covariance), including greater capital requirements for the industry?
Additional risk management considerations that will be asked for and measured
Implications to VAR and DFA modeling
Source:
2001 Annual Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Jeffrey Kucera
Panelists:
Karen Davies, Matthew Mosher
Keywords:
rating agency view on WTC
Mold: The Next Looming Exposure Crisis for the Insurance Industry?
With the recent multimillion dollar award against an insurance company on one of the first mold claims of the industry, the looming "mold exposure" has peaked the interest of consumers, attorneys, and the industry at large. Each has their own concerns-personal and public health, individual insurance protection and financial welfare, adequate premiums for exposure, and the financial welfare of insurance industry to provide coverage.
This panel will discuss the facts behind this exposure and the positions and roles of the key players in ensuring appropriate writing and pricing of this exposure for the future.
Source:
2001 Annual Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Spencer Gluck
Panelists:
Philip Presley, Mark Malia, David Golden
Keywords:
mold exposure, personal and public health, individual insurance protection and financial welfare
Loss Portfolio Transfers
In recent years, ceding companies have been making extensive use of loss reserve reinsurance and loss portfolio transfers. The product has been a very effective financial tool for those companies in runoff or liquidation, those involved in a merger or acquisition, or for those in need of statutory surplus relief. Loss portfolio transfers are also used as a means of tax management. In this session, the panelists will discuss the pricing of these products as well as the ceding company's motivations, different deal structures, profit sharing, the use of risk-limiting provisions such as internal sublimits, claims handling issues, and other pertinent topics.
Source:
2001 Annual Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Richard Derrig
Panelists:
Thomas Passante, Bryan Ware
Keywords:
ceding companies, loss reserve reinsurance and loss portfolio transfers, effective financial tool for those companies in runoff or liquidation, different deal structures, profit sharing, the use of risk-limiting provisions
Understanding Insurance Fraud: Theory and Practice
The cost containment issue of insurance fraud gained new tools during the 1990's with the advent of expanded company Special Investigative Units (SIU's) and the establishment of state-specific insurance fraud bureaus. This session will cover important parallel developments in understanding the mechanics of fraud by means of theoretical models and the detection of fraud through algorithmic screens.
Source:
2001 Annual Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Louise Francis
Panelists:
Martin Ellingsworth, Sharon Tennyson
Keywords:
insurance fraud, state-specific insurance fraud bureaus, understanding the mechanics of fraud by means of theoretical models, detection of fraud through algorithmic screens
Data Mining
Data mining is a new and evolving discipline that uses advanced technologies to find patterns in data. This session will provide an introduction to data mining, including a discussion of what data mining is and an overview of some of the popular methods. Some potential actuarial data mining applications will be presented along with a sample project walk through. Time permitting, the panelists will also discuss the inner working of two of the more well-known data mining methods: decision trees and neural networks.
Source:
2001 Annual Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Francois Morin
Panelists:
Steven Finkelstein
Keywords:
Data mining, actuarial data mining applications
Capital Management
With the improvement in dynamic financial analysis, companies are better equipped to determine where their risks lie. After determining these risks, several strategic decisions arise. Companies need to decide what kind or reinsurance to buy and how much to buy for each line of business. Companies must also consider which lines should be growing or shrinking, what securities should be in the asset portfolio, and what regulatory hurdles are involved in the determining the optimal structure. The panelists will address these issues and how they would determine the appropriate solutions.
Source:
2001 Annual Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Jennifer Biggs
Panelists:
Thomas Weidman
Keywords:
dynamic financial analysis, risks, reinsurance
Asbestos Claims Liabilities
The resurgence of asbestos claims liabilities in the past several months has been somewhat of a surprise to primary insurers and reinsurers alike. Recent studies estimate the liabilities for U.S. companies alone to be in the range of $55 - $70 billion. These claims have an impact not just on the insurance community, but on he going concern value of corporate asbestos defendants, be they insured or not.
This panel will focus on trends in recent asbestos litigation, issues facing insurers and reinsurers and problems with loss reserving processes for such liabilities.
Source:
2001 Annual Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Jennifer Biggs
Panelists:
Stephen Carroll, Andrew Pinkowski
Keywords:
asbestos claims liabilities, issues facing insurers and reinsurers and problems with loss reserving processes
Property Catastrophe Securitization Case Study
Source:
2000 CARe Reinsurance and Capital Market Pricing Methods
Type:
concurrent
Panelists:
John Kiernan
Keywords:
property catastrophe, securization
Comparison of Reinsurance and Capital Market Pricing for Risks That Cannot be Hedged
Source:
2000 CARe Reinsurance and Capital Market Pricing Methods
Type:
concurrent
Panelists:
Donald Mango, Sergei Esipov
Keywords:
reinsurance, capital market pricing, risks
Relating Excess of Loss Reinsurance to Various Forms of Options, Including a Comparison of Pricing Methods
Source:
2000 CARe Reinsurance and Capital Market Pricing Methods
Type:
concurrent
Panelists:
John Aquino
Keywords:
reinsurance, pricing methods