Browse Research
Viewing 3801 to 3825 of 7690 results
1998
The use of age-to-age factors applied to cumulative losses has been shown to produce least-squares optimal reserve estimates when certain assumptions are met. Tests of these assumptions are introduced, most of which derive from regression diagnostic methods. Failures of various tests lead to specific alternative methods of loss development.
1998
The Cox regression model is a standard tool m survival analysis for studying the dependence of a hazard rate on covariates (parametrically) and time (nonparametrically). This paper is a case study intended to indicate possible applications to non-life insurance, particularly occurrence of claims and rating
1998
Diversification of exposure concentration means geographical balancing amongst capacity providers - insurers, reinsurers, or capital market participants. But how to diversify those exposures is still unsettled. Efforts to this point have focused on balancing the exposures which have already been written by insurers00via catastrophe reinsurance (regular or securitized), several proposed catastrophe indices, even direct exposure exchanges.
1998
When an elaborate operational and financial plan is prepared for the following year, including assumptions regarding prospective rate changes, goals are made with regard to premium levels and profitability.
1998
Almost every Actuarial Department uses least square regression to fit frequency, severity, or pure premium data to determine loss trends. Many actuaries use the R² statistic to measure the goodness-of-fit of the trend. Actually, the R² statistic measures how significantly the slope of the fitted line differs from zero, which is not the same as a good fit.
In the Fall, 1991 Casualty Actuarial Society Forum, D.
1998
This paper is about how liability provisions should be set when there is material uncertainty. Conventional accounting practice is deterministic. A stochastic approach is needed. Since a single figure is needed in general purpose financial statements, the provision should include the value of uncertainty. There is a conflict between the measurement of solvency and profitability.
1998
The traditional role of the pricing actuary is to estimate an insurer's expected future costs for an upcoming policy year. Those cost estimates are then used to recommend the product's price. However, traditional actuarial techniques for estimating future costs do not reflect changes in customer behavior based on changes in the product's price.
1998
This paper examines the impact of investment strategy on the market value and pricing decisions of a property/casualty insurance company. Section 2 utilizes classic financial theory to demonstrate the irrelevance of investment policy in perfect capital and product markets.
1998
The authors examine the risk financing approach of the Florida state-sponsored property insurance programs. The programs rely heavily on post-disaster assessments on insurers to meet expected obligations. The authors evaluate the impact of the assessments and discuss whether this approach represents a realistic solution to the "cat problem."
1998
Credibility theory is the crown jewel of casualty actuarial science. The statistician measures the significance of empirical findings, and the businessman uses judgment to select among diverse recommendations. Credibility theory meshes these two traditions, enabling us to combine varied indications based upon the relative predictive power of each of them.
1998
The financial performance of P&C insurance products are vulnerable to a variety of complex social, economic, legal, and operational forces. Unfortunately, traditional ratemaking methods do not fully capture these dynamic elements of the insurance system. Insurers who develop advanced pricing techniques can better anticipate these dynamic issues and thereby enjoy competitive advantage.
1998
This paper presents a new method of estimating D-Ratios by class based on estimated average claim costs by class, that is being used in Massachusetts Workers' Compensation.
1998
In the present paper the author gives net premium formulae for a generalized largest claims reinsurance cover. If the claim sizes are mutually independent and identically 3-parametric Pareto distributed and the number of claims has a Poisson, binomial or negative binomial distribution, formulae are given from which numerical values can easily be obtained.
1998
The Myers-Cohn Profit Model is presented via both a simple example and a practical application. The practical application is shown in considerable detail in order to illustrate some of the techniques required in applying theory in the real world. This should help actuaries understand the model as well as illustrate the importance of the inputs chosen and assumptions made.
1998
This paper combines a simple experience rating example with a set of graphs in order to illustrate key credibility concepts as they relate to experience rating. As part of this graphical approach, credibility will be related to linear aggression.
1998
In the wake of recent catastrophes, a new way of transferring insurance risk was born. In December 1992, the Chicago Board of Trade began trading contracts on an index sensitive to insurer catastrophe experience.
1998
A number of property/casualty insurance pricing models that attempt to integrate underwriting and investment performance considerations have been proposed, developed, and/or applied. Generally, empirical tests of these models have involved examining how well the models fit historical data at an industry level.
1998
As catastrophe modeling systems become more sophisticated, the property insurance portfolio manager can receive better account loss information than ever before. We describe a software system called SmartWriter which effectively processes this information for the portfolio manager. Specifically.
1998
Buhlmann-Straub credibility is used to find an estimate of the mortality loss ratio for a company, relative to a standard table, for use in the statutory valuation of life insurance business. A method for calculating the margin for adverse deviation to be added to the mortality rate (in accordance with the general principle of Canadian statutory valuation) is derived.
1998
This paper presents a framework for possible methodologies to evaluate the effect of tort reform legislation on expected liability insurance losses and loss adjustment expense. An analysis of the most common types of reforms and the difficulties that may be encountered when evaluating their effects is presented.
1998
LOB – Health
1998
Actuaries, like other business professionals, communicate quantitative ideas graphically. Because the process of reading, or decoding, graphs is more complex than reading text, graphs are vulnerable to abuse. To underscore this vulnerability, we give several examples of commonly encountered graphs that mislead and hide information.
1998
In some geographic areas the most significant cause of variation in total dollar losses are fortuitous, non-hurricane storms. Many of the models developed to address the issue of such excess wind losses use dollar loss data only. The traditional models may muddy the distinction between large loss procedures and excess wind models, particularly in territorial analysis.
1998
This discussion will present some of the mathematical aspects of the effect of dispersion of loss development on excess ratios. It will be shown how the formulas developed in "Retrospective Rating: 1997 Excess Loss Factors" fit into this more general mathematical framework.
