Browse Research
Viewing 5251 to 5275 of 7690 results
1989
The usual methodology for setting increased limits factors is to extrapolate relationships observed in past data to expected relationships for the future. This is barely adequate for predicting expected values and provides little guidance for measuring the error in that prediction. This paper brings two new elements to the analysis.
1989
This study develops an alternative way to measure default risk and suggests an appropriate method to assess the performance of fixed-income investors over the entire spectrum of credit-quality classes. The approach seeks to measure the expected mortality of bonds and the consequent loss rates in a manner similar to the way actuaries assess mortality of human beings.
1989
Many of you may be wondering why the topic of Involuntary Markets is on the schedule for the Ratemaking Seminar this year. One only need look at the trade press to see an article on the Massachusetts involuntary auto market and its problems, the Maine workers compensation pool or the New Jersey personal auto JUA.
1989
Several researchers contend that profits of the property-liability insurance industry are cyclical, and attribute this to a variety of causes, such as regulatory lags, interest rates, changes in capital flows into the industry, adaptation under imperfect information, and procedural lags in the process of estimating marginal costs. This prior research is expanded in the following ways: 1.
1989
Data Administration Including Warehousing & Design (general or introductory)
1989
In valuing insurance companies, significant attention is paid to the adequacy of loss and loss adjustment expense reserves and loss and expense ratio assumptions. In most valuations, not only are the expected values of these variables reviewed, but also the impact on the value of variation from the stated expectations. A considerable volume of actuarial literature addresses the derivation of estimates of variability around expected losses.
1989
Data Administration Including Warehousing & Design (narrow topic or advanced)
1989
The loss ratio method of ratemaking requires the Actuary to adjust earned premiums to reflect all rate changes that have been implemented. Many Actuaries use the parallelogram method of finding the portion of the exposures earned from a given rate change. The assumption is made that exposures ace being written at is constant level.
1989
The objective of this paper is to provide an extension of well-known models of tarification in automobile insurance. The analysis begins by introducing a regression component in the Poisson model in order to use all available information in the estimation of the distribution. In a second step, a random variable is included in the regression component of the Poisson model and a
negative binomial model with a regression component is derived.
1989
This paper presents a general summary of the conceptual framework that underlies Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) in the United States, and discusses the application of GAAP to insurance. Particular emphasis is placed on whether loss reserves should be discounted in GAAP financial statements, and if they are discounted whether a "margin for the risk of adverse deviation" should be included in the reserves.
1989
Ex/Ind. Risk Rating Plans/LOB-Medical Malpractice
1989
The purpose of the paper is to develop a method of calculating the aggregate loss distribution for a policy covering excess claims over occurrence limit plus claims arising from the primary losses over an underlying annual aggregate. Usually, when working with losses from more than one source you would determine the aggregate distributions of each component and convolute the result to get the overall distribution.
1989
Probabilities for aggregate claims can be calculated from frequency and severity probabilities using the characteristic function algorithm of Heckman-Meyers (1983), but the formulas are somewhat difficult to follow and program. Two easier algorithms are presented below.
1989
There are many fine papers on the theory behind credibility. However, today we are concentrating on the uses of credibility theory, but only if they are important for credibility practice. My talk will be from the point of view of a Bureau actuary or an actuary with a primary insurer.
1989
Reinsurance excess pricing generally consists of both an exposure rating and an experience rating. We investigate the problem of computing a final rate by means of credibility theory. This paper extends the excess credibility model of Erwin Straub (1971) by considering uncertainty in the excess probability along with the uncertainty in the ground-up claim count expectation.
1989
This is a rather complete general reading on the subject of credibility. If you see something you don't understand, like "diffuse priors, "skip it and press on. It has a lot of good material.
1989
Reinsurance Research - Outward Program Design
1989
Faced with the task of producing an estimate of incurred by not reported (IBNR) loss reserves, as of a particular evaluation
date, given only 1. Case reserves as of the evaluation date; 2. Industry wide reported and paid loss development factors
(LDFs) to ultimate: and 3. Sufficient evidence to believe that the industry wide LDFs are applicable how should one proceed?
1989
Expected returns on common stocks and long-term bonds contain a term or maturity premium that has a clear business-cycle pattern (low near peaks, high near troughs). Expected returns also contain a risk premium that is related to longer-term aspects of business conditions. The variation through time in this premium is stronger for low-grade bonds than for high-grade bonds and stronger for stocks than for bonds.
1989
The proposed CAS "Statement of Valuation Principles" indicates that the valuation of a property and casualty insurer should be based on the present value of a projected cash flow to be generated by that insurer.
The detail of the specific cash flow to be valued is not defined in the Principles - this paper proposes that for merger and acquisition purposes, the appropriate cash flow is the maximum distributable earnings of the insurer.
