Browse Research
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1981
Econometric Modeling
1981
The essence of most actuarial ratemaking techniques is the adjustment o f past actual loss experience to anticipated prospective levels .
1981
Mr. Kaliksi's paper is a well-written, easy-to-read paper that points out the danger of following "standard" trend techniques. In
a period of changing inflation rates, the actuary who locks himself into a projection based on fitting a curve to the latest twelve
points of year ending quarterly data is doomed to miss the mark. As Mr. Kaliski points out, in times of increasing rates of change (for example Mr.
1981
In a series of celebrated papers, K. Borch characterized the set of the Paretooptimal risk exchange treaties in a reinsurance market. However, the Paretooptimality and the individual rationality conditions, considered by Borch, do not preclude the possibility that a coalition of companies might be better off by seceding from the whole group.
1981
General design of computer algorithms and evaluation of their running time, permutations and factorials, binomial coefficients, harmonic numbers, Fibonacci numbers, generating functions, O-notation, lists, stacks, queues, deques, trees, multilinked structures, dynamic storage allocation, uniform and nonuniform random numbers, statistical tests for random number generators, fast multiplication of large integers, polynomial arithmetic, sorting (esp
1981
Reinsurance Research - General/NOC
1981
The paper develops a model clearly differentiating between losses whose ultimate settlement value is determined primarily at settlement or at occurrence. Along with an assumption that rates of inflation and interest rates move in tandem, the author suggests that insurance operating results are not as sensitive to fluctuating price levels as one may assume.
1981
I have found the paper well written, technically sound, and very logical. On the other hand, the various conclusions appear to be at variance with what is commonly accepted as truth in the property and casualty insurance industry. The reader is left with a strong impression that inflation exerts a benign, if not actually beneficial effect on the industry.
1981
Workers Compensation, Experience Rating Plans, Claim Severity Distributions
1981
This paper describes Bayesian Credibility and gives several intuitive examples of the underlying concepts.
1981
Mr. Finger’s paper makes the excellent point that the frequently noted fact that excess losses tend to rise faster than overall loss costs has a converse, namely, that basic limits costs tend to rise more slowly than overall loss costs. He then proceeds to give a method for modeling these changes and gives examples using the lognormal distribution.
1981
In this paper Mr. Kittel has noted an apparent flaw in the traditional method of establishing unallocated loss adjustment expenses (ULAE) reserves. For a growing company in an inflationary economy, the traditional method of establishing ULAE reserves as a function of paid to paid ratios appears to overstate these reserves.
1981
Unallocated Loss Adjustment Expense seems to have received little attention in the actuarial literature. When the subject is discussed in "actuarial" circles, often, the prevailing attitude is that this item is too small compared with loss reserves or allocated loss adjustment expense reserves to be worth much effort.
1981
The best time to reach agreement on the rules of the game is before the first pitch. A rules debate during the seventh inning of a close game may product more heat than light.
The author acknowledges the current debate over risk classification and observes that some reformers have “fashioned new literature” to form the basis for their desired changes.
1981
All actuaries, I believe, would agree that a reserve formula of any kind which eliminates the need for actuarial judgment will never be devised. The author of this paper, I am quite sure, would be the first to agree. Nevertheless, this does not stop actuaries from developing formulae and procedures to help us with our work. This is because a formula helps us to organize our thoughts and exercise our judgment in an orderly manner.
1981
All actuaries, I believe, would agree that a reserve formula of any kind which eliminates the need for actuarial judgment will never be devised. The author of this paper, I am quite sure, would be the first to agree. Nevertheless, this does not stop actuaries from developing formulae and procedures to help us with our work. This is because a formula helps us to organize our thoughts and exercise our judgment in an orderly manner.
1981
The property/casualty combined ratio has become extremely volatile. In the last eight years, record underwriting profits and losses have occurred; the combined ratio has fluctuated up and down by about 10 points and is rising again.
As Casualty Actuaries we should be concerned about this phenomenon. Many of us are responsible for the financial stability of our companies.
1981
The aim of this paper is to discuss the methods that can be used to forecast the shape of a size of loss distribution in some future time period based on its shape in the recent past. In other words we will examine the ways one can adjust historical loss distributions for "trend". Section (1) of this paper provides a working definition and an example of the term "trend" as it is used in the ratemaking sense.
1981
The president of a major insurance brokerage firm recently observed that: "During the past 25 years, with one minor variation, three years of underwriting gains have been followed precisely by three years of underwriting losses. "I This view of cyclical patterns in the industry is confirmed by the trade literature which calls it the underwriting cycle.
1981
Analysis of economic data indicates that inflation has both increased and become more variable over the last fifteen years. Inflation has a considerable effect on insurance profitability by impacting both components of insurance operations, underwriting and investments.
1981
This paper appears to be a logical outgrowth of Mr. D'Arcy's earlier paper entitled An Illustration of the Impact of Inflation On Insurance Company Operations which was a part of the 1979 Call Paper Program.
