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1968
Both Mr. Meenaghan and Mr. Harwayne refer to the Little* report, so some explanation should be given for my failure to mention it by name in my paper. The fact is that the paper was started long before the Little report appeared, as an outgrowth of a consideration of Mr. Bailey’s paper (PCAS LIV, p. 1).
1968
Although investments normally contribute the major portion of the total earnings of a fire and casualty insurance company, in our Proceedings there have been only two papers on investments submitted by members, the first by B. D. Flynn l in 1927 and the second by R. A. Bailey 2 forty years later.
1968
Messrs. Hartman and Lange accomplished a formidable task when they brought up to date the analysis of rate regulatory laws which was contained in the paper which Mr. Carlson presented to this society in 1951.
1968
In the aftermath of the SEUA Case (322 U.S. 533), Public Law 15, effective March 9, 1945, gave the states until January 1, 1948 (later ex- tended to June 30, 1948) to enact regulatory legislation so as to prevent complete application of the federal anti-trust acts to the insurance industry.
1968
After the manuscript had been distributed to the participants of the Arnhem Colloquium , Mr. Bailey and Mr. Simon have kindly drawn my attention to some recent works on the problem. Thus Mr. Bailey presented a the May 1963 Meeting of the Casualty Actuarial Society a paper "Insurance Rates with Minimum Bias", where he recommended an estimation procedure identical with the "Heuristic Method" discussed below. In the discussion following on Mr.
1968
Mr. Valerius’ notes on Whittaker-Henderson Formula A have provided casualty actuaries with an opportunity to improve one of the most powerful tools at their disposal. The problem of examining a series of data, detecting a trend, and projecting that trend is one with which we are all vitally concerned. To fully appreciate the value of his contribution, a brief synopsis of the basic concepts of graduation might be helpfu1.
1968
Mr. Valerius has now contributed two papers to the Proceedings dealing with the Whittaker-Henderson (or difference equation) method of graduation. I recall reading his earlier paper on “Risk Distributions Underlying Insurance Charges in the Retrospective Rating Plan” (PCAS Vol. XXIX, p. 96) while studying for Part 7 of the exams.
1968
Mostly I have only to thank Messrs. Nelson and Snader for their kind reviews.
1968
Within the social sciences the influence of Paul Samuelson, the MIT economist, is almost omnipresent. The majority of fledgling students of economics learn the rudiments of the subject from a textbook he has written. Technical papers he has penned have appeared in most of the major journals devoted to economics, political science, or statistics.
1968
I hope that you will allow me first of all to congratulate Dr. 13ilhlmann on the excellent lecture he has given us and I am sure that you can all agree with me that after his general survey on experience rating and credibility, there is no need at all for me to go into the general aspects of the subject.
1968
A chain of changes since the Southeastern Underwriters Association decision has made adequate methods of statistical time-series analysis increasingly important in non-life insurance.
1968
The crunch of inflation on fire and casualty insurance companies has become more painful in recent years; the creep has become a walk. Executives are increasingly concerned with the long succession of years of underwriting loss. Ratemakers are seeking new ways of projecting loss costs further into the future, so as to achieve premium levels which will be adequate to pay the losses whose cost will continue to escalate.
1968
The standard ratemaking techniques for most lines of insurance incorporate some recognition of the increasing cost of settling claims. It is generally recognized that the current cost level has changed and that the future cost level will be different from that at the time of occurrence of the claims included in the detailed statistical data underlying the calculation of the rates.
1968
Economic costs have become an increasing factor in the growing cost of liability and property insurance claims. In this paper, I shall analyze claims costs as they are affected by economic factors. An underlying purpose is to supplement our standard practice of analyzing past experience with a look at current and near future economic trends.
1968
The author is gratified and encouraged by the comments on his paper. The critical analyses re-emphasize the importance of the subject even though it is apparent that I have made a limited contribution. As a generalization, the four reviewers point out the need for, and urge, further work beyond the scope of my work to make it more useful and meaningful, particularly in ratemaking, forecasting of losses, and for loss reserve purposes.
1968
While agreeing with the thrust of Mr. Masterson's paper, I have several pertinent questions concerning his comments on the claims market place, the apparent motivation for creating this type of index, and calculation of the index.
1968
Mr. Masterson in presenting this paper has recognized that the casualty-property insurance industry has a knowledge gap in regard to our ability to correctly assess the cost of a significant portion of our product. The presentation is an effort to shed some light on the problem and to initiate steps which may ultimately fill the void.
1968
In this paper we shall consider some of the decisions which have to be made in the normal course of business in an insurance company. We shall see that the "right" decisions can be found only when the problems are analyzed in their proper dynamic context.
1968
Let us consider tile following problem. A motorist has decided to effect an accident insurance under the following conditions. The insurance runs for one year. The premium for the first year amounts Eo. If no damages have been claimed during i successive years, i = z, 2 or 3 the premium is reduced to E~. After four years of damage free driving no further premium reduction is granted, so the premium remains Ea.
1968
It is rather a pity that we received only three papers especially devoted to subject 2, "applications of methods of operations research and modern economic theory". Maybe the time for real applications of operations research techniques in the insurance field has still to come.
1967
The relationships between actuarial and pure mathematics are curious. Actuaries have contributed to the development of mathematical theory: it is sufficient to mention, as examples, Fredholm of an earlier, and Cram6r of a more recent generation.
1967
Once again the Casualty Actuarial Society is indebted to Mr. Longley-Cook for a paper dealing with the property insurance business. Since this business has traditionally been "non-actuarial," few members of the Society have devoted time to an examination of the procedures used by property insurance rate makers and, therefore, contributions in this area are valuable knowledge for the actuary.
1967
When experience is insufficient to permit a direct empirical determination of the premium rates of a Stop Loss Cover, we have to fall back upon mathematical models from the theory of probability---especially the collective theory of risk--and upon such assumptions as m a y be considered reasonable. The paper deals with some problems connected with such calculations of Stop Loss premiums for a portfolio consisting of non-life insurances.
