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STAY TUNED! If you are anticipating additional search filters by attribute and level to align with the CAS Capability Model, it is coming later this Summer. As the CAS begins to code recorded sessions by specific attributes and levels (starting with the 2023 Annual Meeting), these will be tagged in the CAS database of presentations going forward and should be searchable.
But you may use the Capability Model now to help you identify topics. For example, if you want to move up one level under the content area “Functional Expertise,” you may search topics in the particular functional area to expand your knowledge.
Recorded content is searchable by Capability Model attribute and level in the CAS Online Library.
Introduction to R Workshop - Part II: (PM Session)
Still with us? The afternoon will focus on problems that are specific to actuaries. In addition, we’ll touch on some of the advanced tools that aren’t available in a typical spreadsheet program. • Reserving in R with ChainLadder and MRMR
• General Sessionized Linear Modeling
• Fitting size of loss distributions
• Intermediate data visualization
• Basic data mining
• Reporting and literate programming
Source:
2014 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Workshop
Moderators:
Steve Langlois
Panelists:
Brian Fannin
Introduction to R Workshop - Part I: (AM Session)
It’s ridiculous to think that anyone can learn R in a day. What we hope to accomplish is to learn what R is and why actuaries should think about adding it to their toolkit. To do this, we’ll walk through some basic practical exercises and emphasize the power and flexibility of R.
The morning session will cover the following topics: • A brief history of R
• Installing R, RStudio and packages
• Variables and data types
• Loading and saving data
• Ordinary least squares regression
• Introduction to data visualization
If participants want to get anything out of the workshop, they should bring their own laptop, with R and RStudio already installed. Installation instructions will be sent via e-mail and available on the internet prior to the workshop.
Source:
2014 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Workshop
Moderators:
Steve Langlois
Panelists:
Brian Fannin
Introduction to Nonparametric Models with Mileage and Time of Day Case Studies
Advances in computing power are opening up more accurate modeling techniques including nonparametric models now commonly used in the statistical community. Nonparametric models eliminate the need to define and impose a rigid model structure required in a traditional GLM resulting in more accurate predictions. This session will provide an introduction to nonparametric modeling and review applications in usage based insurance analytics for both mileage and time of day based rating.
Source:
2014 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Ryan Morrison, Daniel Hernandez-Stumpfhauser
Integrating Telematics Into Your Business and Rating Plans
The possibilities of usage-based insurance (UBI) are well-documented, but the business case is more elusive. Organizations entering the telematics arena are faced with a long and costly road to market, and a clear vision is required to make good on the possibilities. This session will focus on integrating UBI into existing business models, with a focus on the interactions between UBI and traditional rating plans. We will also consider different types of outcomes, both positive and negative, achievable at various levels of integration. Finally, we will discuss short-term uses of telematics in pricing, and common “speed bumps” along the path to longer-term use scenarios.
Source:
2014 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Steve Langlois
Panelists:
Jim Weiss, Allen Greenberg, Jerel Cestkowski
Insurance in the Age of Connected and Self-Driving Cars: What Changes and What Stays the Same?
This interactive session will include a very brief review of technological and regulatory developments pertaining to vehicle-to-infrastructure and vehicle-to-vehicle communications and self-driving cars, and then open up a discussion on what the implications of these developments might/should be on auto insurance. While the discussion will, no doubt, pose more questions than can be answered at this early juncture, participants are expected to leave the session with a better sense of the opportunities and challenges that these developments could present to the auto insurance industry than when they arrived.
Source:
2014 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Steve Langlois
How Predictive Analytics Can Change Your Market Footprint
There are an array of statistical techniques that are available to identify patterns in your existing data. Your existing data reflects the book of business that you have historically written – it represents a cross section of customers that identify with your brand and price. But what if you wanted to expand your brand and grow your book in market niches that don’t currently resemble your existing distribution? The purpose of this session is to discuss analytical approaches to extrapolating beyond your existing distribution thereby altering your market footprint. We will discuss a range of analytical approaches in working on this problem highlighting the benefits and risks of each approach. Finally we will conclude with a General Session discussion of how changing your market footprint is more than just an analytical problem.
Source:
2014 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Melissa Greiner
Panelists:
Brian Stoll, Serhat Guven
How Insurers Can Drive Profitable Growth with Usage-Based Insurance Programs
The paradox for insurers: spending money to set up a UBI program, paying for the devices, data transfer, and analytics only to write policies at lower rates! This session will be used to brainstorm and discuss various UBI strategies to drive profits and growth. Time will be dedicated to discuss all the key aspects of a UBI program including devices, data transfer, analytics, privacy issues, IP issues, regulation, marketing, customer service, and incidental driver and insurer benefits. If you are thinking about setting up a UBI program or improving your existing one you won't want to miss this roundtable!
Source:
2014 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Melissa Greiner
How Economic Analysis Enhances NCCI’s Ratemaking—Highlights from Recent Research
NCCI relies on economic research to provide insights to support its actuarial ratemaking. This session will provide highlights from a recent research project that uses economic theory to explore the relationship between the voluntary and residual markets. On the one hand (this is economics after all) it identifies the challenges in maintaining market stability in an administered pricing environment; on the other hand it provides a mechanism for examining the link between ratemaking for the residual market and market stability in a competitive voluntary market environment. Related empirical analysis also provides a better understanding of the dynamics of the relationship in recent years between voluntary and residual markets.
Source:
2014 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
David Kaye
Panelists:
Harry Shuford, Chris Laws, Kirt Dooley
Homeowners Ratemaking by Peril
In homeowners insurance, consumers are charged a single price for the policy; however, the policy provides coverage for multiple perils. This session will discuss the data issues encountered while preparing the data for by-peril modeling, development of the models and rating plan, and implementation issues.
Source:
2014 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
David Kaye
Panelists:
David Cummings, Michael Nielsen, Thomas Botsko, Anton Zalesky
Health Care Reform
The Patient Protection and Affordable Care (PPACA), and the Affordable care Act (ACA), was signed into law in 2010. After an overview of the key provisions of the ACA, the presenters will discussion possible implications of the ACA on PropertyCasualty Liability insurance coverages such as Medical Professional Liability, Workers Compensation, and other coverages.
Source:
2014 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Ann Conway, Jeremy Pecora, Anne Petrides
GLM III - The Matrix Reloaded
This session will consider new techniques and refinements to the basic GLM which can add material value to the modeling process. It will specifically consider amendments which address some of the purported failings of GLMs in comparison to emerging methods such as machine learning techniques.
The session will include a discussion of: • An innovative approach to detecting subtle and higher dimensional interactions in an efficient way, potentially eliminating the need to consider alternative, harder-to-implement model forms such as nonlinear models.
• The role of such automated methods in comparison with more manual construction of composite explanatory variables.
• Ways to mitigate the risk of over-parameterization through the use of modifications which incorporate elements of credibility within the GLM framework.
• Simple practical modeling steps that can be used to remove distortions created by combining models across claim types.
• Innovative ways of modeling bodily injury claims and other miscellaneous refinements.
Source:
2014 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Claudine Modlin, Serhat Guven
GLM II
GLM I provided the case for using GLMs and some basic GLM theory. GLM II will be a practical session outlining basic modeling strategy. The discussion will cover topics such as overall modeling strategy, selecting an appropriate error structure and link function, simplifying the GLM (i.e., excluding variables, grouping levels, and fitting curves), complicating the GLM (i.e., adding interactions), and validating the final model. The session will also include a discussion on diagnostics that help test the selections made.
Source:
2014 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Ernesto Schirmacher, Len Llaguno, Brent Petzoldt
GLM I
Do terms such as “link function,” “exponential family,” and “deviance” leave you puzzled? If so, this session will clarify those terms and demystify General Sessionized linear models (GLMs). The session will provide a basic introduction to linear models and GLMs. Targeted at those who have modest experience with statistics or modeling, the session will start with a brief review of traditional linear models, particularly regression, which has been taught and widely applied for decades. Session leaders will explain how GLMs naturally arise as some of the restrictive assumptions of linear regression are relaxed. GLMs can model a wide range of phenomena, including frequencies and severities as well as the probability that a claim is fraudulent or abusive, to name just a few. The session will emphasize intuition and insight in addition to mathematical calculations. Illustrations will be presented using actual insurance data.
Source:
2014 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Ernesto Schirmacher
Getting the Most Out of Claims Analytics
When insurers think of claim analytics they tend to focus on fraud first. There are many other applications of claim analytics that can produce favorable returns on loss costs and expenses across many lines of business. This session will explore operational metrics, leading indicators and benchmarking to improve claim performance, and then move to predictive modeling and analytics for claim triage and severity assessment. We will look at case studies in both areas where we have worked closely with insurers to improve their claim outcomes in both personal and commercial lines of business.
Source:
2014 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Gerry Kirschner
Panelists:
Brian Stoll
Getting Started With Price Optimization – Concepts, Models, and Hurdles
Demand modeling and insurance price optimization are quickly gaining attention in North America as a growing number of companies acknowledge the need for more sophisticated pricing. This session will provide guidance on what companies should consider when they start adopting these techniques, for example the techniques available in the market, the results of academic research, and diagnostics available to evaluate the models. Presenters will also explore the key challenges companies should expect to face theoretically, technically and operationally and the solutions which can be considered to deal with them.
Source:
2014 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Gerry Kirschner
Panelists:
Simon Lee, Yves Colomb
Four Ways Predictive Analytics Leverages Social Media
Prediction delivers the ultimate payoff by driving millions of more effective decisions. But prediction is the ultimate challenge; predictive analytics can use all the help -- and all the data -- it can get. No data predicts a consumer's behavior like social data: who the customer knows, what sentiment he or she expresses, and which things the customer Likes. In this session, Predictive Analytics World founder and Predictive Analytics author Eric Siegel describes four ways in which predictive analytics drives better business decisions with the use of social data.
Source:
2014 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Eric Siegel
Evaluating Workers Compensation Reform
Numerous changes to the workers compensation systems were proposed by state legislatures in recent years. Panelists will share examples of such legislative activity in various states, highlighting some of the more significant proposed and enacted changes. This session will include a discussion on evaluating the cost impacts of different types of legislative changes, as well as the data challenges associated with these analyses.
Source:
2014 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Gerry Kirschner
Panelists:
Ziv Kimmel, Natasha Moore
Demystifying External Data: Where to Get It and How to Map It
In today’s world there is a lot of data available, but being able to visualize the data and present it in an organized fashion is a powerful skill. In this session Garrett Bradford, a cartographer who helps insurance companies visualize data, will show you how to obtain census data, attach it to a data set, and use a mapping software to visualize the data. This will be a how to class taught using the ArcGIS mapping software and real data. The how to class will be followed by a demonstration of the power of data visualization presented by Howad Botts, PhD VP Chief Scientist CoreLogic Spatial Solutions.
Source:
2014 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Gerry Kirschner
Panelists:
Howard Botts, Garrett Bradford
Demand Modeling for Commercial Lines:  Enhanced Pricing, Business Projections, and Customer Experience
Predictive modeling of claim costs is widespread throughout commercial and specialty lines. While these models provide estimates of each policyholder's costs, they create as many questions as they answer. How quickly should we move prices towards indications? How will policyholders react? How will agents and brokers respond? Will decreasing rates for certain segments actually grow the premium?
This session will discuss how price elasticity of demand information can be used to address these questions and more, including: • What is price elasticity?
• Why is it useful?
• How can it be measured?
• What are its applications?
• How does it complement my organization's customer experience strategy?
• What are its benefits?
Source:
2014 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Gerry Kirschner
Panelists:
Alex Laurie
Data Privacy vs. Insurance Discount:  Which Will Policyholders Choose?
Usage-Based insurance is quickly gaining traction in the auto marketplace and is positioned as an “everybody wins” scenario for insurers and insureds. Policyholders enrolling in programs must be willing to share detailed driving data with their insurance company in order to qualify for a discount. Terabytes of potentially sensitive telematics data amass quickly. This session will discuss a full range of topics related to data privacy of telematics data, including the insured’s perspective, how programs in the marketplace address data privacy concerns, best practices for securing data, case studies, and sample response scenarios if a security breach were to occur.
Source:
2014 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Gerry Kirschner
Panelists:
Jim Weiss, Kelleen Arquette
Customer Lifetime Value - Opportunities and Challenges
Customer lifetime value (CLV) is a useful tool in marketing and customer relationship management (CRM). CLV has been gaining ground in the insurance industry over the last several years. Despite the theoretical simplicity of CLV, it is fraught with difficulty when applied in practice. In this talk, we will discuss critical issues to consider when modeling and implementing CLV applications within the insurance industry.
Source:
2014 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Gerry Kirschner
Panelists:
Mohamad Hindawi
Current Regulatory and Advanced Analytics Development in China’s Insurance Market
China’s insurance market has experienced explosive growth over the last decade. As the market continues to grow and mature, China insurance carriers begin to leverage data analytics and predictive modeling in competing in the market place. A wide variety of modeling applications have been developed recently for rating, underwriting, marketing, and fraud detection. In this session, the panelists will discuss their recent auto predictive modeling projects in China. The panelists will show, with real case studies, how various predictive modeling techniques have been applied to address business needs for the China auto business. Another topic that the presentation will focus on is the current development for the regulatory environment and solvency requirement.
Source:
2014 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Gerry Kirschner
Panelists:
Cheng-Sheng Wu, Jun Yan, Xiaoying Liang, Zhigang Xie
Critical Issues in Predictive Modeling - Real World Challenges and Decisions
Predictive Models are now being used to drive various types of decisions within workflows of insurance carriers. For example, many underwriters now use predictive models to aid them in the fundamental activities of risk selection and schedule rating.
When constructing a predictive model, modelers make important decisions in the face of practical challenges that arise when working with real world data, such as lack of data quality and selection bias within the historical modeling samples. Additionally, the modeler can only construct a useful model when possessing a solid understanding of how the model will be specifically used within the workflows of underwriting actions and systems. Meanwhile, underwriters can struggle interpreting the model and understanding how to blend model indications with their intuition and information they possess that is not contained within the model. Additionally, actuaries desire to ensure that underwriting models are not in conflict with manual rate plan indications and filings.
This presentation will show examples of specific challenges and pitfalls building predictive underwriting models and discuss how actuaries, underwriters, and modelers can engage each other in cooperative ways through predictive analytic endeavors to ensure solid underwriting model construction and usage that results in better holistic differentiation, selection, and pricing of risks.
Source:
2014 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Gerry Kirschner
Panelists:
Matt Frazier, Dan Bankson, Dominic Weber
Cost of Capital and Capital Attribution- A Primer for the Property Casualty Actuary
This session will provide a historical primer on the subject and address past and current research of the practical ways in reflecting the cost of capital in ratemaking. This primer will discuss aspects as developed by Merton-Perold, Myers-Read, Mango's asset share model, and the RMK procedures. Also considered will be current research as it relates to how actual capital should perhaps be considered in percentile layers, based on the risk metrics considered. We have come a long way since using premium to surplus ratios of 30 years ago. Let's continue the evolution.
Source:
2014 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Gerry Kirschner
Panelists:
Glenn Meyers, David Ruhm, Neil Bodoff
Competing on Information: The Evolving Actuarial Role
With both business and data expertise, actuaries often find themselves helping to turn data from IT systems into fact-based answers for business users. As insurance data explodes these demands do too. This session will explore several ways this evolves, and provide competitive models and financial research to help insurers chart their best direction. The session will review a business-driven process and case studies from Swiss Re and others to rapidly envision their game plan to turn data into an aligned business impact.
Source:
2014 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Gerry Kirschner
Panelists:
Jeremy Benson, James Barber
