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STAY TUNED! If you are anticipating additional search filters by attribute and level to align with the CAS Capability Model, it is coming later this Summer. As the CAS begins to code recorded sessions by specific attributes and levels (starting with the 2023 Annual Meeting), these will be tagged in the CAS database of presentations going forward and should be searchable.
But you may use the Capability Model now to help you identify topics. For example, if you want to move up one level under the content area “Functional Expertise,” you may search topics in the particular functional area to expand your knowledge.
Recorded content is searchable by Capability Model attribute and level in the CAS Online Library.
Emerging Risks
Emerging Risk analysis requires a combination of temperament and knowledge to anticipate risks and events that could materially change future results for an entity. These could be positive or negative, and require a long time horizon and the ability to overcome a natural tendency to anchor impressions based on recent events.
The research deals with 7th Survey of Emerging Risks, sponsored by the Joint Risk Management Section (CIA, CAS, SOA). Questions about top 5 risks, key risk indicators and recent trends are asked and the responses evaluated. The experts filling out the survey General Sessionly have illuminating comments that help all risk managers identify and deal with ever-evolving risks.
Source:
2014 International Congress of Actuaries
Type:
Concurrent Session
E-marketing And E-business For Financial Services And Products
With the increasingly importance of the Internet today, financial professionals – including consulting actuaries – need to develop approaches to marketing with creative use of new digital communications.
E-business, which involves the automation of all the steps of the business process, creates the ability to run a business online. E-marketing aims to bring the product or service to customer using digital media channel such as online advertising. An effective consultant nowadays must have an online presence through one of the five main components which are: transactional e-commerce site, service-oriented website, brand-building site, portal site and social network.
Our paper aims to provide participants with effective tools to: • Creating a powerful marketing plan using the SOSTAC © planning system (SOSTAC stands for Situation Analysis, Objectives, Strategy, Tactics, Actions and Controls)
• Get better result from their website
• Measure their e-marketing through web analytics.
Source:
2014 International Congress of Actuaries
Type:
Concurrent Session
Earning Patterns of Vehicle Extended Warranties with Limited Odometer Cover: A Pure Risk Premium Approach
The timing of when to earn premium reserves of a vehicle extended warranty over its term (earning pattern) is supposed to closely resemble its risk profile. Vehicle extended warranty cover period is often set in terms of time and odometer limits. In this case, although earning patterns are specified on only a time dimension, there is still need to allow for odometer limits when determining earning patterns. To address this problem, this paper utilises a survival model of the time to cover the odometer limit distance to simulate the probability that a vehicle is within the odometer limit over the extended warranty term. These probabilities are then integrated in a pure risk premium framework to produce odometer-limit adjusted earning patterns. Data from a vehicle extended warranty provider is used to demonstrate the proposed method. The results demonstrate that considering odometer limits can significantly affect earning patterns, depending on the level of odometer limits applied.
Source:
2014 International Congress of Actuaries
Type:
Concurrent Session
IFRS
The International Accounting Standards Board and the Financial Accounting Standards Board are expected to produce new accounting standards for insurance contracts by the end of 2014 with an effective date after 2017. It will be a significant challenge for all insurers to implements these changes. The speakers will discuss the theoretical and practical issues that must be addressed by life and non-life companies. The speakers will deal with the issues from both the preparer and user perspectives.
Source:
2014 International Congress of Actuaries
Type:
Concurrent Session
China's Risk Oriented Solvency System
In March 2012, China Insurance Regulatory Commission (“CIRC”) launched a three-year project to research and develop a more robust China risk oriented solvency system (“C-ROSS”) in March. CIRC organized 13 task forces to research the solvency framework, capital modeling, and various risk types for both life and P&C insurance exposure. The speakers for today’s panel include officers from the CIRC, and leaders of various C-ROSS task forces, including the “P&C Underwriting Risk Project” and the “Other Risks and Risk Correlation Project”.
Presentation 1: Introduction of C-ROSS
1. The main characteristics and shortcomings of the current solvency system in China
2. The objective of C-ROSS
3. The structure of C-ROSS and its main characteristics
4. The difficulties in building C-ROSS and the timetable for finishing C-ROSS
5. C-ROSS and the international common standard in solvency system
Presentation 2:
Solvency II inherits its framework from Basel II of EU Banking Industry. One big difference between banking and insurance, from the actuarial point of view, is that the risk distribution of the banking industry is relatively asymmetric, while the distribution of the insurance industry is General Sessionly right-skewed, especially for the catastrophe risks. For cat risks, this kind of feature defies good solutions under a correlation matrix framework. The correlation matrix approach creates inconsistencies between theoretical results and cat model results. To solve the issue, a new approach, which is to minimize the weighted-MSE instead of relying on a presumed distributions, is discussed. This new correlation framework is planned for use in the China Risk Oriented Solvency System (C-ROSS) for calibrating cat risks. We hope colleagues from the actuarial field worldwide can provide feedbacks to this new approach before China Risk Oriented Solvency System (C-ROSS) is formally rolling out in 2015.
Presentation 3:
As an emerging market country, China's insurance industry reflects the classic characteristics of rapid development and big change. The current measurements of underwriting risk of a property and casualty insurance company in China Risk Oriented Solvency System (C-ROSS) are designed to meet Chinese realistic conditions. The measurements are divided into four main parts, including calculation structure, stochastic method, risk factor model and aggregation method. A new hierarchical reduction model is used as a core measurement, with effective solution to scale impact and systemic risk.
Source:
2014 International Congress of Actuaries
Type:
Concurrent Session
Chief Risk Officer Panel
The position of Chief Risk Officer is gaining in prominence and visibility. Most major insurers now have a CRO, who is a member of the senior management team The panelists will discuss the following topics:
· Their roles and responsibilities within their organization
· Key external risk management issues, such as ORSA, ComFrame, and Solvency II
· Key internal risk management issues, such as emerging risks, risk modeling, and leading practices
· The role of actuaries in risk management
Typical questions to be covered by the panel include
-what are the main risks you see to (life/PC) insurers in 2014? Longer term?
-how have companies responded?
-how do companies perceive the value of ERM? Value of the CRO?
-what actuarial models have proved most valuable?
-can you relate a successful risk mitigation anecdote?
Time will be reserved for Q&A.
Source:
2014 International Congress of Actuaries
Type:
Concurrent Session
CEO Panel
A conversation with leading insurance industry CEOs
Presented in a "talk show" format, this plenary session will feature a host interviewing leading insurance industry CEO's about their careers, industry vision and actuarially focused advice. Our talk show host will be Patricia Guinn, a Managing Director with Towers Watson, and her guests will be Michel M. Liès, Group CEO, Swiss RE; Greig Woodring, CEO, RGA Reinsurance Company; and CEO's of two other leading insurance companies.
The talk show guests will share their insights and perspectives on a wide range of topics, such as: • Potential opportunities and threats arising out of demographic and generational shifts, advancing technology, new regulatory approaches, and other changes to the environments in which we operate. What are the implications for insurance companies and for actuaries?
• In mature markets, how will insurance companies, large and small, cope with sustained low economic growth rates, and with new competition? In the developing areas of the world, what will be the nature and role of the insurance industry?
• What types of actuarial talent and personal skill sets will be needed to support our evolving industry?
Source:
2014 International Congress of Actuaries
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Lela Patrik
Panelists:
Gary Sullivan
International Actuarial Education and the AEN
a) 4 years of the AEN: goals and results
b) New approaches in actuarial education
c) AEN and Syllabus implementation
d) Lifelong professional learning: Impact on graduate and CPD programs
e) Presentations of selected papers in track Prof& Education related mainly to Education
Source:
2014 International Congress of Actuaries
Type:
Concurrent Session
Life Insurance Policyholder Behavior
The presentation will provide insights into the evolving practices for measuring experience data and setting actuarial assumptions for life insurance products. Topics will include measuring market driven policyholder behavior within the context of a changing economy and the availability of alternatives in the market. The increase in unemployment and economic uncertainty affects behavior. We will provide insights into which policyholders are influenced.
For term products a special focus will be on the reaction of policyholders to large changes in premiums after the original level premium term period. Actuarial models tend to account for changes in premiums; however this presentation will cover other influencing factors. As shock lapses rates increase so does the impact of the grace period on the mortality.
Topics will also include consistency across actuarial applications. Understanding the effects of the lapse skewness and grace period around the post level term period and the modeling implications are key when performing experience studies and setting assumptions.
Source:
2014 International Congress of Actuaries
Type:
Concurrent Session
Life insurance cash flows with policyholder behaviour
The problem of valuation of life insurance payments with policyholder behaviour is studied. First a simple survival model is considered, and it is shown how to modify cash ows without policyholder behaviour to include surrender and free policy behaviour, by calculation of simple integrals. In the second part, a more General Session disability model with recovery is studied, and it is shown that valuating cash ows in this model is a problem of calculating a modi ed Kolmogorov differential equation. This method has been suggested recently in Buchardt et al. We conclude the paper with numerical illustrations showing the importance of modelling policyholder behaviour.
Source:
2014 International Congress of Actuaries
Type:
Concurrent Session
Life After the End of Gender-Specific Pricing in Europe
On 1 March 2011 the European Court of Justice ruled that the previous exemption in the context of Equality Legislation which allowed insurers to use gender as a factor in calculating premiums, was invalid and that this exemption would not be extended beyond 21 December 2012.
The purpose of this paper is to document and explore the effects of this change on the pricing, product design and distribution of Life Insurance in the European Union.
Insurers are currently preparing to change their product pricing to gender-neutral terms. These preparations include:
- analysis of current and projection of future business mixes as an input to pricing
- development of strategies to phase in gender-neutral terms to minimise adverse selection
- development of tactics to secure a favourable business mix in the gender-neutral environment
- plans and communications regarding the management of cases submitted in the lead-up to the change over and which may not complete underwriting by 21 December
Our paper will report on the outcomes of these activities. We will include our own analysis of business mixes and identify factors that explain gender mix. As a case study we will monitor and report on individual UK insurers’ pricing strategies in the lead-up to 21 December and in the following months. Finally we will provide an estimate the cost of this regulatory change to the insurance industry and policyholders.
We believe that the results of our research will help European insurers to price and design products in an ongoing gender-neutral environment. The lessons we learn from this change will have useful application in other contexts where regulatory changes impact the pricing of insurance.
Source:
2014 International Congress of Actuaries
Type:
Concurrent Session
Lies, Damn Lies and Impairments (Issues and practicalities of retail credit impairment modelling)
Credit impairment modelling is a critical element of financial risk management. Poor performance in this area has led to poor expectation management and in some cases disasterous financial results for both retail banks and their funders both direct (shareholders) and indirect (via securitisation). The presentation will provide an overview of actuarial techniques applied to retail credit impairment modelling and will also focus on practical issues that actuaries are well placed to help address.
Source:
2014 International Congress of Actuaries
Type:
Concurrent Session
Leveraging New Insights from the Global Burden of Disease and Risks to Achieve Great Health Gains at Lower Costs
This session discusses the Global Burden of Disease and Risk, and its implications for adult health priorities. Integrating the Global Burden of Disease and related financial data on healthcare costs in order to project cost trends and estimate prevention gains will be demonstrated. There will also be a case study from the Congressional Budget Office on modelling the long term impact of an increase in the Federal Tobacco Excise Tax.
Source:
2014 International Congress of Actuaries
Type:
Concurrent Session
Lee-Carter Mortality Forecasting for Uzbekistan (Poster Session)
The classical Lee-Carter method is applied to forecast age-specific mortality rates in Uzbekistan for the period 2011-2030 on the basis statistical data between 1980 and 2010 both for men and women. Stochastic forecasts of life expectancies in birth are constructed for period 2011-2030. Mortality projections are applied for constructing dynamic complete life tables, which can be used by life insurance companies in their pricing policy.
Source:
2014 International Congress of Actuaries
Type:
Concurrent Session
Learn, Interact, Grow Competent : A Conceptual Framework for Continuing Professional Development
LEARN, INTERACT, GROW COMPETENT: A CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK FOR CONTINUING PROFESSIONAL DEVELOPMENT
Mickey Lowther & Prof. Wendy McMillan
This paper offers insight into Continuing Professional Development principles that can assist actuaries to develop and maintain the capability to deliver a quality professional service. Three principles were deduced from the literature:
- Professional development is a complex work-based journey from novice to expert;
- Effective professional development must develop the capability to practice; and
- CPD requirements of a delivery-focussed profession should promote professional development.
The relevance of these principles was tested by means of a survey of the opinions of members of the Actuarial Society of South Africa. These principles go beyond an emphasis on ‘outcomes-based CPD’. Collectively, the principles provide a concept of CPD which the authors term ‘principles-based CPD’. The paper then reports on how principles-based CPD is being implemented in South Africa to assist members to follow their principles-based Code of Professional Conduct with its emphasis on service delivery that is competent, ethical and subject to professional oversight.
Source:
2014 International Congress of Actuaries
Type:
Concurrent Session
It Takes Two: Why Mortality Trend Modeling is More than Modeling One Mortality Trend
Increasing life expectancy and thus decreasing mortality rates constitute a global trend that can be observed in almost all countries worldwide. Estimating the current rate at which mortality rates decrease and modeling the future rate of decrease is important for e.g. demographers and actuaries. This task is commonly referred to as mortality trend modeling.
Recent work, e.g. by Sweeting (2011) or Li, Chan and Cheung (2011) has established that in many countries the mortality trend appears to be a piecewise linear function. This can be used in stochastic mortality models by implementing trend components that generate a (stochastic) piecewise linear trend and some kind of random fluctuation around this trend.
We show that previously discussed versions of this approach have several shortcomings. In particular we show that one needs to distinguish between two different mortality trends: The actual mortality trend (AMT) prevailing at a certain point in time and the estimated mortality trend (EMT) that an observer would estimate given the data up to that point in time. The difference between these two results from the fact that an observer would not always be able to distinguish between a recent chance in the actual trend and a “normal” random fluctuation around the previous long term trend. Depending on the question at hand, the AMT or the EMT might be the relevant figure to use in analyses.
The paper provides a clear definition of and distinction between the actual mortality trend and the estimated mortality trend, discusses their connection, and explains which of the two is relevant for which kind of question. Moreover, a combined model for both trends is specified, calibrated to mortality data, and applied to several examples.
Source:
2014 International Congress of Actuaries
Type:
Concurrent Session
Investigation of Hedging Strategies between Assurances And Annuities for the Purpose of Mitigating Longevity Risk
Longevity risk is an increasing risk factor in the increasing world of pensions and annuity business. If declining the business is not an option, a method is required to minimise the risk of longevity. This research considers the natural hedge between annuities and assurances. The stability of the hedge is investigated, how often rebalancing is required, and the effect that a change in interest rates will have on it. The hedge is illustrated for various ages, both for annuities and assurances. Finally, this is expanded and a simple method is suggested to apply the hedge to a portfolio of annuities or assurances.
Source:
2014 International Congress of Actuaries
Type:
Concurrent Session
International Standards of Actuarial Practice - A Primer
A strategic objective of the International Actuarial Association is to promote the issuance of actuarial standards in the jurisdictions of all IAA Member Associations, and the global convergence of actuarial standards. To assist in the achievement of this objective, it has created the Actuarial Standards Committee for the purpose of producing standards, International Standards of Actuarial Practice (ISAPs), to serve primarily as models. This session will cover:
• IAA Strategy for ISAPs
• The role of ISAPs (International Standards of Actuarial Practice) as models for national standard-setters and as standards themselves where designated in particular assignments
• ISAPs in contrast with International Actuarial Notes (IANs)
• The consultation process (“due process”)
• An update on activity (final standards, exposure drafts, statements of intent, and status of each)
• Actuarial standard-setters and IAA member associations around the world: actions taken with respect to ISAPs, development of standards General Sessionly to date, and issues arising
Source:
2014 International Congress of Actuaries
Type:
Concurrent Session
International Pension Plans, Their Role in Multinational Benefit Planning
There is an increasing interest in international pension plans (IPPs) for expatriates as a consequence of the trend towards globalisation of businesses and the increasing challenges of retaining globally mobile employees in domestic pension plans. They are typically established in international finance centres such as the Channel Islands, the Isle of Man or Bermuda in order to benefit from a benign fiscal and regulatory regime and may either be serviced by locally based actuaries or by the international teams of domestic actuarial consultants. IPPs pose unusual challenges to employee benefit actuaries and consultants in balancing the conflicting demands of parity with domestic employees on the one hand having regard to the differing fiscal and social insurance arrangements at home and overseas, with a need on the other hand for flexibility and proportionality where relatively small numbers of globally mobile employees are involved.
This paper traces the development of IPPs over the past three decades, how they typically operate at present and how they might continue to develop in the future. It comments upon the trend from defined benefit to defined contribution pension provision, the General Session interaction with other aspects of the employee benefit package, the relative merits of funded and unfunded arrangements and the relative attractions of "bundled" and "unbundled" investment and benefit administration approaches.
There have been very few papers on this subject presented to previous ICA conferences and this paper seeks to fill a gap in this specialist field. The speakers present the paper from both a British and an American perspective, drawing upon their personal experiences both in advising upon IPP issues and in managing IPPs in practice.
Source:
2014 International Congress of Actuaries
Type:
Concurrent Session
Internal Model for Estimating Risks of Non-Life Insurance Companies for Developing Countries
The International Association of Insurance Supervisors (IAIS) has developed guidance and standards for internal models. The main challenge for constructing internal model for developing countries is shortage of data. Therefore, data needs to be simulated and expert assumptions about underlying model parameters should be considered. This paper discusses models to evaluate underwriting risk, reinsurance credit risk, market risk and operational risk for developing countries.
The aggregate claim S(t) in underwriting risk section itself is a random variable, as the aggregate risk is a composite of two random parameters, namely the number of claims and their severity. The distribution of S is obtained from the distribution of N and the distribution of X. In practise, the frequency and severity of claims are modelled separately, as this method is advantageous in many cases due to several following factors: • The expected number of claims depends on the number of written insurance policies
• Changes in economic variables, as inflation and additional claims inflation, are reflected in the losses Xi, as the bigger inflation the bigger are the average losses.
• The shape of the distribution of S is in compliance with the shape of distributions of N and X. It is very useful in determining the details of policies and etc
• General Sessionly, a precise and flexible model can be designed by investigating severity and frequency distributions separately.
The main aim in this section is to find distributions of claim numbers and severities for different type of insurance contracts.
One particular case of credit risk reinsurer’s default risk. Unlike bank deposits or loans, the obligations of reinsurers are extremely volatile and depends on aggregate claims of insurer. Therefore, .in order to model Reinsurance Credit Risk it is necessary to model the amount of recoverable, loss given default and exposure from reinsurer which depends on the type of reinsurance contract. Recoverable, loss given default and exposure are random since they also depend on the number and severity of underlying claims.There is no much data on operational losses, therefore operational risks simulation methods will be presented.
Market risk estimation model based on information about main types of insurer's invertments will be presented. The ways to find optimal asset allocation strategy will be discussed.
Source:
2014 International Congress of Actuaries
Type:
Concurrent Session
Internal Capital Models: Design, Implementation & Governance
Economic Capital Models (ECM) play an increasingly important role in the insurance industry. Several companies have been using such models for business steering for quite a while and the use is now being extended to determine Solvency capital requirements under several regulatory regimes (e.g. the Swiss Solvency Test and Solvency II in Europe).
In this presentation we will discuss design criteria for a good internal model. Especially, we will advocate the separation of risk factors (modeling the external world) and exposures (the impact of the risk factors on the economic balance sheet) so that dependencies are modeled at the risk factor level and portfolio correlations are an output rather than an input to the model. We will show in several real life examples how this can work in practice.
We will also touch on certain properties of the risk measures used to derive the capital requirements. Especially, we will elaborate on the fact that - in contrast to VaR - TailVaR not currency invariant which might lead to undesired phenomena in a multi currency model.
Finally, we will discuss the challenges related to the increasing requirements on model governance and discuss features of a good validation and model change policy.
Source:
2014 International Congress of Actuaries
Type:
Concurrent Session
Interest Dependent Transition Rates in Life Insurance
This paper considers valuation of life insurance contracts within a Markov model in the case where the interest rate and the transitions rates are dependent. We are working in an ane setup such that we are able to obtain results without needing to solve partial differential equations but only systems of ordinary differential equations as long as we consider models without cycles. Ane processes have for some time been used to model the interest rate and transitions rates in life insurance, see e.g. Dahl and M ller (2006) and Bis (2005). The results in this paper can be seen as a continuation of the work in Due et al. (2000). Moreover, we explore in which models one can obtain results without the needs of integration of mappings of the solutions of ordinary differential equations and in which models integration is indispensable.
The surrender option is embedded in many life insurance contracts and the attention to the modelling of surrender rates and valuation of life insurance contracts where one takes into account the surrender option, has increased highly the last years. This is, in particular, motivated by the forthcoming Solvency II legislation, where the lapse risk plays an important role. One way to model the surrender rate is to make it dependent of the interest rate, which is a fairly natural approach as shown in Kuo et al. (2003). Interest rate dependent surrender rates form our main example of our General Session results on dependent interest and transition rates.
Source:
2014 International Congress of Actuaries
Type:
Concurrent Session
Integrating the Reserve Distribution Process into Enterprise Risk Management
Never has it been more important for actuaries to improve their understanding of reserve variability. Updated International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS Phase II) will likely require all insurance companies to record an independently measured and updated risk margin. In Europe, Solvency II directives already require the recognition of a risk margin and validation standards require the Actuarial Function to comment on material deviations from prior expectations.
Back-testing enables the reserving actuary to assess the “new” information inherent in the loss triangles, relative to “known” information and future expectations inherent in the analysis. Without an analysis of reserve variability, an assessment of the significance of deviations from expectations is not possible. Even with an analysis of reserve variability, distinguishing between mean estimation error, variance estimation error, and random error is difficult. A systematic back-testing process as part of a comprehensive ERM system, which uses the output of prior reserve variability analyses, significantly increases the ability of the actuary to assess deviations from expectations and provides management with an early indicator of performance relative to the actuary’s expectations.
Within the comprehensive ERM solution, assumption consistency becomes an important challenge. When selecting a point estimate for an unpaid loss reserve, the practicing actuary commonly weights the results from multiple methods. By assigning weight to a method, the actuary is partially accepting or rejecting the assumptions inherent in each method that contributes to the selection. Therefore the future expectations for each data element (e.g. incremental paid losses) are a weighted average of expected data element in each of the methods which received weight. Likewise, the inherent uncertainty in the selected estimate is more appropriately modeled as a weighted average of the expected uncertainty in the methodology which underlies each model used to estimate uncertainty. An approach which uses a single model (e.g. Mack) to estimate the uncertainty around a point estimate, based on multiple models, uses an assumption set which was at least partially rejected during the selection of the point estimate.
This session will examine a framework for reserve distribution testing and validation and demonstrate its use with real datasets within an Enterprise Risk Management framework. We will also discuss the impact that various scenarios of one-year development may have on next year's estimate of reserve variability.
Source:
2014 International Congress of Actuaries
Type:
Concurrent Session
Innovations in Operational Risk
The paper will provide an assessment of the current techniques used to assess operational risk in the financial services industry globally. Addressing the limitations of current approaches, a new innovative framework for the assessment and analysis of operational risk is outlined, based upon the use of complex systems sciences. The techniques of cognitive mapping and Bayesian networks will be used to develop structural / causal models for the assessment of operational risk. These frameworks enable the complex inter-relationships between operational risk and capital outcomes to be directly linked to the states of business drivers and risk factors, such that the full range of non-linear behaviour can be captured.
Case study examples will be used to demonstrate the framework. In particular, a case study developed for operational losses arising from rogue derivative traders, which effectively define the extreme tail of an operational loss distribution, will be discussed in some detail. Case studies will also be used to demonstrate how the various dimensions of risk management can be addressed in one consistent framework, spaning risk assessment, capital assessment, stress testing, scenario testing, reverse stress testing, risk appetite and risk limit setting. A case study on the use of phylogenetic techniques will also be discussed to understand the relatedness of the characteristics defining various large derivative losses and rogue trader events, which provides insight into the assessment of emerging operational risks.
Compared to the paper, the presentation will focus proportionately more on innovations in operational risk, as opposed to the current state of play across global financial services industries.
Source:
2014 International Congress of Actuaries
Type:
Concurrent Session
Improved Forecasting through a Different Focus
We are somewhat barking up the wrong tree with our heavy emphasis on getting ever more information and hoping that better technical methods will solve existing futures, especially crisis emergence, assessment shortfalls.
The core issue in fostering improved human understanding about both emerging normal and crisis change is learning to better use the assessment tools at hand rather than constantly thinking that some next new method or data improvement will solve insight and foresight problems. There are things to be achieved in terms of cognition, method usage, and using concepts like entanglement and embeddedness to enhance performance.
Three interconnected sub-themes will be addressed from prize-winning work in each area to attack the 'big issue' of how we get better now: 1) Using existing information and assessment approaches more effectively to understand emerging futures. In short, understanding what excellence at judging 'normal' change looks like
2) Using insights about the dynamics of assessment failure that enfold mainstream analysts and organizations pre-crisis so as to better foresee and time an emerging crisis (Using their failure to comparative advantage), an 3) Looking at how post crisis one can better foresee how/why different societies recover - bounce back - in their particular way.
Let's explore how the scientific community needs to improve human practice regarding change assessment and futures forecasting?
Source:
2014 International Congress of Actuaries
Type:
General Session
