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STAY TUNED! If you are anticipating additional search filters by attribute and level to align with the CAS Capability Model, it is coming later this Summer. As the CAS begins to code recorded sessions by specific attributes and levels (starting with the 2023 Annual Meeting), these will be tagged in the CAS database of presentations going forward and should be searchable.
But you may use the Capability Model now to help you identify topics. For example, if you want to move up one level under the content area “Functional Expertise,” you may search topics in the particular functional area to expand your knowledge.
Recorded content is searchable by Capability Model attribute and level in the CAS Online Library.
Global Risks and Their Relevance to P&C Insurers
The World Economic Forum recently published its ninth edition of "Global Risks," in which it identified, explored, and prioritized 31 major risks that could have global social, economic, and political consequences if they are not remediated. Towers Watson has also recently published an update to its analysis "Extreme Risks," in which it prioritized 30 extreme risks. While the approaches taken by the two research groups differ, both argue that the world is undergoing change at an increasing pace, that the world is becoming increasingly interconnected, and that a longer-term view is necessary to successfully grapple with major risks. The panel will explore the nature of these risks in a broader societal context, but also discuss how they should be incorporated into the management of risk within the context of a P&C insurer.
Source:
2014 In Focus Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Michael Green
Panelists:
Stephen Lowe, Richard Lino
Getting to Know Your ERM Actuarial Standards of Practice
In this session, we will discuss the two enterprise risk management Actuarial Standards of Practice (ASOPs) that became effective on May 1, 2013 "ASOP No. 46 - Risk Evaluation in Enterprise Risk Management" and "ASOP No. 47 - Risk Treatment in Enterprise Risk Management." We will also provide an update on efforts to adopt similar standards in other jurisdictions, and recent ASB activity related to ERM, potentially leading to further ASOPs.
Source:
2014 In Focus Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Kevin Madigan
Focusing ERM: Correlations & Dependencies
Understanding and quantifying risk dependencies is found in assessment of clash risk, capital models, the untangling and demystifying of the events of 2008, increasing appreciation for the interconnectedness of the global economy, and each company’s own material interdependencies. While risk interdependency is not a new concept, and there were multiple reasons for the 2008 meltdown, what stood out during this "black swan" event was the magnitude of the risk interdependency within companies, within industries, and between industries, and the subsequent impact on both earnings and solvency.
As ERM continues to develop and mature within P&C insurance, and in conjunction with potentially enhanced stress and solvency assessments required by the Own Risk & Solvency Assessment (ORSA), boards and regulators will be looking to ERM functions for insights into a company’s material interdependencies, both internal and external. Identifying them requires a thorough understanding of a company and its industry, as well as significant collaboration within each company. This session will address how we optimally elicit the type of information needed around these potential events and stresses, as well as approaches to quantifying them.
Source:
2014 In Focus Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Michael Green
Panelists:
Stuart Hayes, Wayne Blackburn
Flood Panel
Flood Insurance is in the news again after Sandy. That devastating event calls for renewed understanding of the risks floods present. Come to this panel and benefit from two speakers, each with decades of experience to share about understanding, measuring and communicating flood risks and hazards.
Thomas Hayes will provide an overview of the National Flood Insurance Program and describe how recent legislation has changed the political landscape of flood risk assessment. He will also give a primer on the variability of flood risk, explaining how the low-frequency, high-severity nature of floods is both similar to and different from earthquake risk.
Dr. Howard Botts will examine all sources of flood risk including coastal storm surge, river and lake flood risk inside and outside the FEMA special flood hazard zones, flash flooding as well as basement flooding and sewer backup.
Source:
2014 In Focus Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Michael Green
Panelists:
Thomas Hayes, Howard Botts
CRO Panel: A Day in the Life
What exactly does a CRO do? How do they spend their time? What keeps them awake at night? Who do they report to and who reports to them? These and other questions will be asked and answered in this interactive session with a panel of CROs.
Source:
2014 In Focus Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Michael Green
Panelists:
Alessa Quane, Michael Mahaffey, Robert Rupp
Changes to the NAIC and A.M. Best Capital Models
U.S. insurance regulators are considering changes to the NAIC Property/Casualty RBC. Proposed changes include modification to the calculation of the existing capital charges and the introduction of new capital charges in the RBC formula. Catastrophe risk charges for earthquakes and hurricanes are already being tested by the NAIC. There is a proposal to introduce an explicit operational risk charge in RBC. Changes are contemplated or have been proposed to the way reinsurance and underwriting risks are reflected in the minimum capital requirements.
A.M. Best is contemplating changes in its approach to calculating certain risk factors in its capital model as well as changes to risk metrics and risk thresholds. A.M. Best intends to accomplish this through the use of stochastic simulation software. The session will compare the current model to the proposed model, the expected time frame for implementation, and the potential impact on ratings.
Changes to the minimum regulatory capital requirements and rating agency capital models should be considered in the context of the introduction of Own Risk and Solvency Assessment (ORSA), developments in practical enterprise risk management (ERM), and the growing adoption of improved risk governance.
The session will include an open panel discussion of the main changes and their potential impact on individual insurance companies and the industry.
Source:
2014 In Focus Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Michael Green
Panelists:
Ralph Blanchard, Thomas Mount, Alex Krutov
Catastrophe Risk Behaviors: Empirical Evidence and Policy Implications
This session will discuss the implications of observed catastrophe risk behaviors.
The first set of behaviors is based on field studies that measured the evolution of coastal residents’ risk perceptions and preparation plans as hurricanes were approaching the United States. The data from that field study suggest that residents had a poor understanding of the threat posed by the storms. These misperceptions translated into preparation actions that were not commensurate with the nature and scale of the threat they faced. Possible causes of the biases and policy implications for improving hurricane warning communication will be discussed.
The second set of behaviors relates to consumer and political attitudes as we try to transition from mitigation awareness to mitigation action. Using video footage from the IBHS Research Center and social science analyses, this will include changing hearts and minds, understanding and activating incentives, and addressing political realities, all in the face of increasing wind, water, and land-movement risks.
Source:
2014 In Focus Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Michael Green
Panelists:
Robert Meyer, Debra Ballen
Casualty Catastrophe Risk: Qualitative and Quantitative Evaluation
Understanding and modeling casualty catastrophes. This session will discuss emerging issues that warrant monitoring as potential future casualty catastrophes. An overview of sources of information including the evolution of policy wordings, especially as it affects insured loss, will be discussed. The second panelist will present a framework for quantifying casualty risk. Both speakers will discuss the challenges and approaches for casualty modeling. Discussion will include actuarial methodology and the catastrophe modeling framework as applied to casualty catastrophe risk.
Source:
2014 In Focus Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Michael Green
Panelists:
Tim McCarthy, Joseph Wu
Allocating Economic Capital to Drive Business Decisions
A methodology for allocating capital based to business segments will be presented and discussed, with broad application across P&C insurance products. In addition, specific examples of applications of the methodology will be presented, with discussion around business decision making impact and executive level acceptance.
Source:
2014 In Focus Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Michael Green
Panelists:
Donald Mango, Tim Borst
Health Care Reform
The Patient Protection and Affordable Care (PPACA), and the Affordable care Act (ACA), was signed into law in 2010. After an overview of the key provisions of the ACA, the presenters will discussion possible implications of the ACA on PropertyCasualty Liability insurance coverages such as Medical Professional Liability, Workers Compensation, and other coverages.
Source:
2014 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Michael Green
Panelists:
Ann Conway, Anne Petrides
Current Events
In this roundtable, participants will discuss the news of the day as it relates to reserves. Examples of topics include: the impact of the Affordable Care Act, increasing regulation, changing trends in autos and the weather, and the state of the equity market.
Source:
2014 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Michael Green
Part II — Basic Loss Reserving Methods
In this session, participants will learn 4 basic loss reserving methods –development methods, expected loss ratio, Bornhuetter-Ferguson, Cape-Cod - and apply them to multiple data sets to estimate the ultimate losses. The strengths and weaknesses of each method in a variety of situations will be discussed. Additionally, methods of estimating reserves for defense and cost containment expenses, adjusting and all other expenses, and salvage and subrogation will also be presented. Participants will continue to work through the hands on examples with guidance from experienced actuaries to gain a working knowledge of these methods.
Source:
2014 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Michael Green
Panelists:
Kurt Johnson, Alexander Alimi, Sally Levy, Scott Lamb, Ellen Edmonds
Part III — Comparison of Methods
In this session, the methods from Part II will be compared, including discussion of the strengths, weaknesses, advantages and disadvantages of each method. Techniques to discover reasonableness will be covered and useful diagnostics tools will be explored. Participants will continue to work through the hands on examples with guidance from experienced actuaries to gain a working knowledge of these methods.
Source:
2014 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Michael Green
Panelists:
Kurt Johnson, Alexander Alimi, Sally Levy, Scott Lamb, Ellen Edmonds
Cyber Liability: Beyond the Breach
The data breach at Target has heightened the awareness of and concern about cyber liability exposure. Insurers are creating new products to meet the increase in demand for coverage. The panelists will discuss what cyber liability is, what product offerings are currently in the marketplace, the characteristics of cyber liability claims and the costs associated with handling these claims.
Source:
2014 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Michael Green
Panelists:
Robert Parisi, Catherine Mulligan
Current Issues in Construction Defect
Construction defect claims continue to surface for many insurers. The panel of three construction defect experts will talk about current issues and trends affecting contractors, subcontractors and their insurers. The range of topics includes occurrence definitions, additional insured endorsements, prior acts coverage, sunset provisions, wrap effectiveness, impacts of notice & opportunity to repair laws, and emerging product defect claims. The panel will also discuss what can be done to eliminate construction defect claims or at least to mitigate their severity.
Source:
2014 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Michael Green
Panelists:
Edward McKinnon, Jeffrey Masters, Anita Thibadeau
Crop Insurance — The Reserving Actuary's Growing Role
The role of the crop insurance reserving professional has seen a rapid evolution in recent years. In the past, crop insurance loss reserves received relatively low levels of attention due to the exposure's short-tailed nature. However, market forces, weather events, and developments in products in recent years have all resulted in late surprises and adverse reserve development. As a result, a larger emphasis is being placed on year-end reserving and forecasting of crop results.
This session will begin with a description of the federally supported multi-peril crop insurance program, including the reinsurance protection and subsidies offered by the government. We will discuss common crop coverages and examine how they differ from standard property and casualty coverages. The actuary’s role in the proposal and review of new RMA programs will also be covered.
The conversation will then turn to techniques commonly used in loss forecasting and reserving for crop exposures, including a discussion of third party data sources that can be utilized and challenges commonly faced. Panelists will address specific issues faced by both primary carriers and reinsurers. The session will also examine the future outlook of the US Crop Insurance program.
Source:
2014 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Michael Green
Panelists:
Charles Cook, Carl Ashenbrenner, Andrea Shi
Correlations Between Long-Tail LOBs & Common Drivers: A Single Composite Model for Multiple LOBs and the Economic Balance Sheet
We discuss three types of relationships between long tail LOBs; process or volatility correlation, parameter correlation and similar trend structure, equivalently common drivers. Two LOBs or segments have common calendar (accident) year drivers if calendar (accident) year trends change in the same way in the same years. Common drivers are the strongest type of relationships.
Process correlation between two LOBs is spurious unless for each LOB the identified (optimal) model measures the trends in the three directions.Common drivers by accident (underwriting) year have major implications for pricing future accident (underwriting) years.
The single identified (optimal) composite model projects log-normal distributions for each cell in each LOB including correlations between LOBs and within LOBs yielding a wealth of metrics. It facilitates the computation of the Economic Balance Sheet, SII one-year risk horizon metrics including SCR, Technical Provisions and Risk Margins, and variation in mean ultimates on year hence.
Source:
2014 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Thomas Mount
Panelists:
Ben Zehnwirth
Complexities in Reinsurance Reserving
Although in theory the reserving for reinsurance business may be similar to that of the underlying insurance business, in practice the reinsurance reserving actuary needs to allow for complexities in coverage and difficulties in obtaining underlying information, both in terms of data quality and timeliness. Alternatively, insurance reserving actuaries may need to allow for changing and complex reinsurance structures in developing accurate net estimates. This session will explore considerations required in allowing for reinsurance features for both assumed and ceded reinsurance, and discuss implications for reserve accuracy and variability.
Source:
2014 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Sam Friedman
Panelists:
Barbara Murray, Michael Rozema, Anders Ericson, Chris Bozman, John Campbell
Commutations — Partnering for Success
A commutation is an agreement to discontinue the run-off of a reinsurance contract. A close partnership between the ceding company and reinsurer is essential to ensure a successful commutation. This session will address what motivates companies to commute, common pitfalls encountered in the commutation process, and factors key to a successful commutation. We will discuss commutation contract clauses, pricing considerations, accounting treatment, booking and reserving impacts of commutations, with specific examples provided of unique and interesting circumstances.
Source:
2014 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Jared Smollik
Panelists:
James Kahn, Lynne Bloom, Letitia Saylor
ComFrame Implementation: Lessons from Solvency II
The IAIS has recently made strides to implement a Common Framework (ComFrame) for the regulation of internationally active insurance groups. In particular, this framework will include the introduction of a new global capital standard and will have implications for governance, risk management and reporting requirements. This presentation will explore the current state of play (including a reflection on the recent Field Testing exercise), what is likely to be around the corner and what is expected over the next few years. This presentation will also discuss the lessons learned from the implementation of other regulatory regimes around the world (e.g. Solvency II, Swiss Solvency Test, and Bermuda).
Source:
2014 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Jared Smollik
Panelists:
David Payne, Sean O'Dubhain, David Paul
Catastrophe Reporting and Reserving: State Data Calls, Risk Based Capital Update, and Beyond
During this session we will discuss what happens after a catastrophe. Many state regulators ask companies for claims and reserving information. What information is required and how the regulators use it will be discussed with several examples.
In the second part of this session, we will discuss the 2013 catastrophe data call mandated by the NAIC in order to prepare for updates to the Risk Based Capital calculation to include catastrophe risk.
Source:
2014 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Cathy Hwang
Panelists:
Ralph Blanchard, Lise Hasegawa
California Workers Compensation Reform:  What Should We Expect Next?
California workers compensation is well known for its strong cyclical nature: reform followed by reform erosion followed by new reform. This session will address the impact of the latest reform, SB863, effective January 1, 2013, based on the actual emerged loss experience over the past 21 months.
Source:
2014 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Cathy Hwang
Panelists:
Dave Bellusci, Michele Lyons
Building Communication Skills: Talking to Non-Actuaries
Confidence intervals? Moments? Linear regressions? While these mathematical concepts may be very useful in actuarial work, their use may be limited if your non-actuarial clients, managers, and colleagues cannot understand you. The goal of this session is to teach actuaries how to enhance their value to their internal and external clients by using both verbal and written communication to explain technical concepts to non-actuaries.
Source:
2014 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Cathy Hwang
Panelists:
Joseph Herbers, Doug Hayden
Blowing Through the Range
If you’ve worked as an actuary long enough, you’ve probably seen cases where a reserve estimate turns out to be inadequate in a short period of time. Similarly, you may have seen cases where expected development implied by a reserve never seems to happen.
In these situations, was there anything that could have been done to better forecast these developments? Looking back at these cases, were there indications that would have alerted the actuary to these developments? Are there cases when extreme reserve developments are truly unexpected with no warning signs? Should historical examples of extreme development affect how we think of a reasonable range or are they just outliers caused by process risk? The panelists will explore these questions about extreme loss development with examples such as international catastrophe losses, long tailed liability development, and mortgage backed securities.
Source:
2014 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Cathy Hwang
Panelists:
Ron Fowler, John Ferrara, Christopher Andersen
Beyond the Point Estimate: An Introduction on How to Understand and Communicate Reserve Ranges and Variability
Actuaries have become accustomed to using reserve ranges to express the uncertainty in the value of loss reserves. A range can be more intuitively accessible than other more technical statistical measurements of uncertainty. A range can also be a useful way to communicate uncertainty to the various stakeholders who have an interest in an insurer’s loss reserve and the risk associated with it. The price paid for this ease, however, is a lack of precision and a danger of misunderstanding and miscommunication; the phrase “range of reserves” can have many different interpretations. This session will consider some of the most common interpretations and discuss appropriate methods for estimating ranges for different audiences and in different contexts. We will look at the strengths, weaknesses, and underlying assumptions of commonly used approaches, both deterministic and stochastic.
Source:
2014 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Gregory Cote
Panelists:
Matthew Killough, Aleksandra Orlova
