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STAY TUNED! If you are anticipating additional search filters by attribute and level to align with the CAS Capability Model, it is coming later this Summer. As the CAS begins to code recorded sessions by specific attributes and levels (starting with the 2023 Annual Meeting), these will be tagged in the CAS database of presentations going forward and should be searchable.
But you may use the Capability Model now to help you identify topics. For example, if you want to move up one level under the content area “Functional Expertise,” you may search topics in the particular functional area to expand your knowledge.
Recorded content is searchable by Capability Model attribute and level in the CAS Online Library.
When Black Swans Aren't: On Better Holistic Assessment and Forecasting of Emerging Global and Country-Level Change
Improved holistic assessment of global change is particularly useful to the risk manager and the risk modeler, especially in this complexly changing world environment. As an example of complex adaptive systems, global change is an excellent laboratory for developing techniques to improve forecasting and understanding of these systems.
"Black Swan" thinking claims that stuff just comes out of nowhere and, thus, you cannot predict it. Worse, it claims that such Black Swan events shape the world. Professor Werther takes the position that this paradigm is barely useful analytically and seriously wrong philosophically. Dr. Werther will address the skills and information that is needed to understand emerging whole-system changes in the global system. He will also demonstrate how to improve forecasting for emerging risk by holistically assessing change dynamics for particular markets (countries/societies) from within their particular biases. Dr. Werther's presentation will include a discussion of the latest emerging trends in the international environment.
Source:
2012 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Alex Laurie
What to Do When Models Don't Work
Bad Risk Models have been blamed for causing or at least exacerbating the Global Financial Crisis. While statistical based models are a massive advance over single scenario best estimate models in understanding risk and volatility, they sometimes miss warning us about the problems that actually do occur because they are not inherently adaptive. The answer is not necessarily to fix the models, but to augment the models with alternate ways of thinking about risk so we know when the models need updating. This session will review several different modes of thinking and introduce a Systems Analysis approach that can provide new insights into the complex interacting forces that lead to the outside the models problems. Participants will learn ways to evaluate and challenge the embedded assumptions that are sometimes the cause of model failures, and how to better leverage the inherent knowledge in organizations about emerging risk patterns that models don't know about yet. In addition, other modes of thinking and decision making that often drive the conclusions that conflict with both the models and with Systems Analysis will be described to provide a full meta analysis of thinking styles.
Source:
2012 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Paul Ericksen
Panelists:
David Ingram, Neil Cantle
What Do Rating Agencies Want?
ERM experts from major rating agencies discuss their organization's unique perspective on ERM. The will inform us of lessons learned, discuss "red herrings" identified based upon ERM discussions, comment on how rated companies benefit by having strong ERM, indicate how they desire seeing ERM evolve, and provide thoughts on emerging regulatory change.
Source:
2012 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Paul Ericksen
Panelists:
Thomas Mount, Neil Strauss, Li Cheng
Solvency II Implementation Issues
Solvency II is a special case of an ERM approach and so, in a broad sense, it is a rational proposal for better risk-return management: a more comprehensive view of risk; decisions preferably based on quantitative information; and a transparency policy that allows for more well-chosen decisions by the various interested parties. However rational, implementation issues naturally arise as we begin to distinguish between what is desirable and what is possible. This session outlines some of the challenges that will be faced by insurance institutions in implementing Solvency II. Some of those challenges are exclusive of insurance institution, but some others could also apply to firms performing any ERM implementation process. We will discuss implementation issues relating to three distinct topics:
1) Solvency metrics
2) Effective risk management
3) Pro-cyclicality
Source:
2012 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Paul Ericksen
Panelists:
Jorge Araiza, Masashi Kikuchi, Luis Morales
Risks For Non-Financial Companies
ERM truly encompasses all kinds of organizations, not simply insurers. The arena of ERM for non-insurance commercial enterprises provides unique value creation opportunities by the highly successful disciplines of risk financing, human capital risk, operations research, industrial, and systems engineering. In this session we will present topics as diverse as supply chain management to sustainability, show how actuarial insights can be combined with the principles of ERM in non-financial sectors to help organizations quantify the key risks impacting strategic goals, improve decision making and measure the return on investment of ERM activities. We will also discuss the use of ERM techniques by non-insurers to optimize risk financing decisions and the potential role of insurance companies in managing such risks.
Source:
2012 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Paul Ericksen
Panelists:
Christopher Bohn, Thomas Wendling, Corey Gooch
Research Session: Pension Risk and Trifurcation
Enterprise Risk Management at the UK Pension Protection Fund
Trifurcation
Source:
2012 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium
Type:
research, concurrent
Moderators:
Paul Ericksen
Panelists:
Dave Ingram, Daniel Bar-Yaacov, Martin Clarke
Research Session: ERM Management Tools
Enterprise Risk Management-From Compliance and Risk Control to Creating Shareholder Value
ERM Stochastic Analysis Tools-Risk Drivers Revealed
Source:
2012 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium
Type:
research, concurrent
Moderators:
Paul Ericksen
Panelists:
Vladimir Antikarov, Steven Craighead
Research Session: Capital & Policyholder Behavior
Enterprise Risk Management and Capital Budgeting Under Dependent Risks: An Integrated Framework
Exploring Policyholder Behavior in the Extreme Tail
Minimization of the Total Required Capital by Reinsurance
Source:
2012 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium
Type:
research
Moderators:
Paul Ericksen
Panelists:
Yingjie Zhang, Tianyang Wang, Yuhong Xue
Public Private Partnership: Risky Proposition?
Some of the best hidden and most dangerous risks come at the intersection between two distinct organizations, particularly when their organizational structures and cultures are different from each other's. This session sheds light on one important type of such intersection: the interplay between government entities and private organizations involved in Private-Public Partnerships. We will examine, from the governments perspective, how risks are evaluated, shared and managed in Private-Public Partnerships, starting with a high-level perspective followed by a discussion of several case studies, some that succeeded and some that failed.
Source:
2012 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Paul Ericksen
Panelists:
Michel Rochette, Steve Cohen
Public Pension Risk Dynamics
While public define benefit pension plans have been in existence for over 150 years, their dynamics - their behavior over time - has remained largely unexplored. Analyzing the dynamic behavior of public pensions allows us to identify and quantify the sources of risk in these systems. Market risks resulting from variation in the return earned on system assets have been identified and studied. However, there are a number of other important sources of risk that have not been well studied and are usually overlooked. These include:
Investment policy risk, resulting from the allocation of system assets among asset classes;
Benefit level risk, arising from the fact that benefit increases add both cost and risk;
Funding level risk, which occurs because better funded plans are riskier than those with low asset levels;
Actuarial policy risk, arising from the choice of the actuarial funding method and the asset target inherent in that method;
Amortization policy risk, in which the term over which unfunded liabilities are funded affect cost variability; and
Actuarial assumption risk, which results from the fact that accurate assumptions may actually be riskier than inaccurate ones.
In this concurrent session, Mr. McCrory will present the results of extensive simulations of public pension systems, identifying and explaining these and other risks, and presenting estimates of their magnitude.
Source:
2012 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Paul Ericksen
Panelists:
Robert McCrory, Allan Milligan
Methods for Modeling Sovereign Credit Risk in a Portfolio Setting
This session will provide information on the follownig:
- Empirical correlation patterns of sovereign CDS correlations Methods and pitfalls associated with extracting correlations from the sovereign CDS market How to build a correlation model that accurately describes dynamics between sovereign debt and other asset classes and allow one to manage a credit portfolio with sovereign exposure
Source:
2012 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Kelly McKeethan
Panelists:
Nihil Patel
Managing Risk in a Dangerously Changing World
This concurrent session follows the general session "ERM Blindspots: Prophets of Emerging Risks" in which some emerging risks of great consequence will be presented. Due to limited time in the general session, the concurrent session will further elaborate on risks, to the extent necessary, and present additional risks.
The session does not provide enough time to thoroughly cover even a few risks so emphasis will be on providing critical information that is not well known and allow time for discussion. Dr. Roth will ask attendees which subjects are most important to them so more time can be spent on those.
Some attendees will have attended the session "Anticipating Black Swans" at the 2011 ERM Symposium, also by Dr. Roth; this session will contain considerable new information. Topics covered, including important risk manager considerations and education, will be:
Electromagnetic pulse (EMP) with its many facets: The threat of EMP is very real and some say imminent. A major EMP event can destroy our civilization but risk managers need to look at the probabilities of a moderate EMP event that can be very destructive, especially if there is no preparation. The time is now to engage in preparation and even now could be too late.
The record number of large catastrophic events in 2011, many due to extreme weather: Why is this happening and how can we prepare for such events?
Climate change: Although some call it a hoax, the scientific literature needs to be reviewed and understood. Major patterns can be helpful in this analysis but how confident can we be that our models are producing reliable information?
Food and water shortages, becoming more widespread and taking a greater toll: What has been causing these shortages and what can we expect in the future?
Pandemics, a continuing threat that could have dire consequences.
Cyber risk, a much greater concern than most risk managers currently understand: The "cloud" is being offered as a means to greater cyber security. Companies depend heavily on Internet access. Cyber security companies are offering services that they claim will protect our cyber activity and databases. Insurance companies are starting to insure against cyber losses.
Large earthquakes: None of them were predicted. Some areas that are earthquake prone are seeing greater preparation but what can we really expect in the not-too-distant future? What have seismologists learned from the recent earthquake activity?
Expect to hear some surprises.
Source:
2012 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Shantelle Thomas
Panelists:
Alan Roth
Linkage between Risk Appetite and Strategic Planning
The session will discuss the linkage between risk appetite and strategic planning based on a research sponsored by Joint Risk Management Section of the Society of Actuaries, Casualty Actuarial Society, and Canadian Institute of Actuaries.
Risk appetite framework is playing a more important role in corporate governance. It helps the management understand the company's risk profile, find an optimal balance between risk and return, and nurture a healthy risk culture in the organization. Rating agencies and regulators give credits to companies who has a proven consistency between risk appetite statement and risk limits and who has embedded risk appetite in the business decision process.
The presentation will focus on the importance of and key considerations in integrating risk appetite framework with strategic planning. Several case studies based on real world practices will be presented covering major areas of strategic planning as listed below. Both the philosophy and numerical examples will be discussed. It is hoped that it will formalize the thinking process of linking risk appetite with strategic planning and throw a sprat to catch a herring. Risk appetite and asset allocation
Risk appetite and liquidity management
Risk appetite and performance measurement
Risk appetite and new business budgeting
Source:
2012 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium
Type:
research
Moderators:
Irma Medina
Panelists:
Kailan Shang, Mary Neumann
ERM Implementation at Professional Risk Organizations
In this session, the Society of Actuaries (SOA), the Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS), and the Risk Management Society (RIMS) compare and contrast the paths they took to implement ERM for themselves and their members. Attendees will learn:
- How they designed their risk governance structures
- How they conducted their risk identification processes
- The approaches they chose for measuring their key risks
- How ERM is enhancing their strategic planning and other decision-making processes
Source:
2012 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Al Schulman
Panelists:
Aaron Halpert, Carol Fox, Stacy Lin
ERM for the Smaller Company
The industry is a-buzz with enterprise risk management (ERM)--but you may not have the resources to spare for all the ERM demands being made of you. What steps can be taken to better position your company for success in these volatile and uncertain times without busting your department's budget? This session will provide insight by presenting industry observations, as well as practical advice from companies on how they have extracted value from ERM programs. Topics will include how to set up an appropriate risk framework, with governance structures, policy setting and reporting. Because every company will have its own particular set of risks and challenges, there is no "one size fits all" solution, participants will come away with insight into some of the practical challenges and benefits that others have experienced.
Source:
2012 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Al Schulman
Panelists:
Mark Milton, Amit Ayer
ERM at the YMCA of the USA: A Case Study
Implementing ERM at a non-corporate entity such as a charitable organization is more challenging. Rather than have a primary goal of increasing company value for shareholders, they have multiple goals of serving numerous equally-important stakeholders. In this session, we will discuss these challenges and showcase how one of the largest charities in the U.S. is overcoming these challenges with an objectives-based ERM approach.
Source:
2012 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Greg Slone
Panelists:
Sim Segal, Karyn Boston, Nancy Owens
Emerging Risks - An Evolving Landscape
This session will discuss the? JRMS Emerging Risk survey and provide a case study of emerging uncertainty in the twentieth century and implications for the twenty-first century. The fifth annual survey is expected to be published prior to the ?????Symposium.? Analysis of the survey focuses on the impact of the Arab Spring and combinations of risks.
Source:
2012 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Greg Slone
Panelists:
Max Rudolph, Pete Thomas
Bringing Private-Sector Risk Management Discipline to Large-Scale Government Risks
Some of the world's largest workforces and budgets belong to government organizations. The risks they have to manage are proportionately large, yet their risk managers are often hamstrung with antiquated equipment, bureaucratic procedures, political interference and legacy systems. In this session, federal government risk experts discuss their lessons learned from disasters avoided and endured and explain how a disciplined approach to risk management can help them avoid repetition.
Source:
2012 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Greg Slone
Panelists:
Jay Ahuja, Thomas Stanton
Part VII - Product Monitoring/Risk Management
After the product has been designed and is being sold in the marketplace, our focus needs to turn to its performance. Come participate in a discussion of early indicators of a new product's success.
Source:
2012 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Jed Isaman
Part VI - Marketing
If a tree falls in the forest but no one hears it, does it make a sound? Likewise, if a product is designed but doesn't get to market, has a product been developed? Come participate in a discussion about marketing issues and ways to measure marketing effectiveness.
Source:
2012 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
workshop
Moderators:
Jed Isaman
Part V - Regulation
Depending on the product, the regulatory concerns can be substantial. During the session, key questions and how their answers affect filing strategy, will be discussed. For example, is the company making a new filing or revising a current one? What is the impact on existing customers? Will the change improve the potential for more customers to be written, thus reducing state pools? How were rates substantiated?
Source:
2012 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
workshop
Moderators:
Jed Isaman
Panelists:
Christopher Stoll, Patrick Causgrove
Part IV - Product Design
New products are important to an organization's continued growth and marketplace relevance. What processes and governance should companies consider in terms of approving new products? What role (if any) do senior management and the board have in shaping and bringing forth new products? Speed to market is not always a predictor of success in managing products. This session will provide a perspective on how to achieve speed to profit through effective project selection, prioritization, and execution. We will also discuss the factors that contribute to success in launching new products and leading practices based on research and practical experience.
Source:
2012 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
workshop
Moderators:
Jed Isaman
Panelists:
Donna Schlegel
Part III - Product Design
Attendees for this session will explore the different considerations for the product design. Panelists will cover elements of pricing, claims, legal, marketing, operations, and IT.
Source:
2012 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
workshop
Moderators:
Jed Isaman
Panelists:
Robin Harbage
Part I - Niche Identification
During this session participants will learn key elements of niche identification. Facilitators will explore how developing a new product is often about identifying an underserved niche of finding ways to attract risks more likely to be profitable.
Source:
2012 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
workshop
Moderators:
Jed Isaman
Panelists:
Robin Harbage
Introduction to Credibility
Considering credibility in the context of ratemaking concepts, this session will review variables affecting credibility and credibility formulas, as well as practical techniques for increasing credibility. Both classical and Buhlmann models will be described.
Source:
2012 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
workshop
Moderators:
Jed Isaman
Panelists:
Kenneth Doss
