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IRS Audit Activity - The IRS is Knocking - Are You Ready?

The Internal Revenue Service has substantially increased its scrutiny of the loss reserve tax deductions of property/casualty insurers. The new and more aggressive IRS posture is confirmed in an important IRS Coordinated Issue Paper on loss reserves. Many property and casualty insurers nationwide are facing IRS challenges to their carried loss reserves. Loss reserving issues and procedures most affected by these IRS audits will be discussed. The current status of IRS examination and appeals activity and court cases will be discussed. How companies can best prepare for and respond to the IRS enforcement activity will be covered.
Source: 2012 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type: concurrent
Moderators: David Harris
Panelists: Travis Grulkowski, Daniel Buttke

Investigating and Detecting Change

This session will explore a variety of techniques to detect and address changes in mix of business, claim closing patterns, and case reserve adequacy. When changes in history are verified through discussion with claim, underwriting, reinsurance, and field staff, the actuary can pick the right tool for the job. Adjustments of loss reserve methodologies to account for each situation will also be discussed.
Source: 2012 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type: concurrent
Panelists: Lawrence White, D. Lamb

Introduction to Reinsurance Reserving

While reinsurance reserving principles are generally similar to primary reserving, applying them is often more difficult and involves special considerations. This session will provide a basic understanding of reinsurance loss reserving principles, considerations, and techniques. The panelists will cover reinsurance contract types, data grouping for loss development, specific reserving techniques, and complications in their application. This session is not intended for experienced reinsurance actuaries but assumes a working knowledge of primary reserving techniques. No advance preparation is required.
Source: 2012 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type: concurrent
Moderators: Richard Plunkett
Panelists: Bryan Ware, Joseph Milicia

How do Companies Develop a Range of Reserves, from Theory to Practice

Actuaries and companies think about and develop reserve ranges in different ways. This session will outline different approaches used by companies, from the most basic methods to the cutting edge techniques. The panelists will also present the results of a survey regarding the prevalency of the methods of developing ranges.
Source: 2012 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type: concurrent
Moderators: Richard Plunkett
Panelists: Justin Brenden, Kishen Patel

Glory Days - How Loss Reserving has Evolved

Audience members will be a part of a lively discussion about how loss reserving has evolved. Two past presidents of the CAS and one former chief actuary for a large reinsurer will chat and field questions about how loss reserving has evolved over their combined century of work experience. Their discussion will include: turning points they missed and lessons learned, the loss development tail and how views of it have changed, the impact of changes in technology including how predictive modeling might affect the cycle, and the introduction of the role of the appointed actuary and the importance of that communication with the client.
Source: 2012 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type: general
Moderators: Richard Plunkett
Panelists: Patricia Teufel, Richard Lino, Robert Conger

Evaluating Legislative and Administrative Reforms in Workers' Compensation

This session will address the evaluation of workers' compensation reforms using both actuarially objective methods and subjective methods requiring knowledge and experience beyond that of actuaries. Actuaries usually only evaluate the "objectively quantifiable" portions of legislation. In this session, we will also address how to evaluate the "subjectively quantifiable" legislation, which often has the greater impact. This knowledge gives their companies an edge. The impact on both current liabilities and prospective costs will be addressed, with examples from both the federal workers’ compensation programs (e.g., Black Lung) and recent state workers' compensation reforms.
Source: 2012 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type: concurrent
Moderators: Richard Plunkett
Panelists: Arthur Cohen, Ian Sterling, Natasha Moore

Estimating the Workers Compensation Tail

Estimating the tail associated with workers compensations continues to be problematic because of the long time horizon. This session will present several techniques and case studies for estimating development beyond the data available in triangles.
Source: 2012 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type: concurrent
Panelists: David Mohrman, Brian Jones

Dynamic Risk Modeling - Pricing and Reserving

DRM is ever-increasingly becoming indispensible to the actuarial toolkit in quantifying in a holistic manner the diverse factors that have an effect on the solvency and profitability of an insurance company. While there are several commercial package programs available for such modeling purposes, it is paramount for actuarial practitioners to have sound understanding of the underlying principles of constructing these models. This session will focus on concepts, principles, and methods from the Dynamic Risk Modeling (“DRM”) Handbook chapters on Pricing and Reserving essential to actuaries developing their own models or adapting external models. While asset and credit risk issues have been extensively treated in various contexts including ERM, pricing and reserving risks are areas where actuaries can enhance organizational value by quantifying the likelihood that various metrics will trigger regulatory or rating agency actions, both favorable and unfavorable. The presentation will emphasize the recently concluded work by the DRM Committee addressing these underwriting risk topics, as it is quintessentially related to actuarial areas of expertise. Attendees will be updated on the continuing activities of the CAS DRM Committee and resources available to the practicing actuary in this area.
Source: 2012 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type: concurrent
Moderators: Luyang Fu
Panelists: Christopher Diamantoukos, Alp Can

Documenting Your Reserve Analysis

The first part of this session will touch on some basic ASOP principles and annual statement instructions as they relate to documentation of your work product. A sample outline for writing a report along with some best practices will also be provided. The second part of this session will entail the review of a sample actuarial report and discussion as to how that report holds up relative to the ASOPs, instructions, and best practices. The session will involve participants breaking out into smaller groups, reading through the report, and discussing the report's shortcomings and overall application of actuarial judgment. Once the smaller group discussions are complete, the entire session will come back together to discuss each smaller group’s findings along with commentary from the panelists. Time permitting, we will also review and discuss a sample actuarial opinion. The sample report (and opinion) will be posted to the CAS website. Members planning to attend this session are highly encouraged to review the items prior to the session and to have them available for reference during the session via personal laptop, tablet PC, or paper copy. There will be a limited number of paper copies available for members to review during the session.
Source: 2012 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type: concurrent
Moderators: Luyang Fu
Panelists: Patricia Teufel, Nicole Elliott

Discussing Actuarial Standards of Practice for ERM

The ERM Task Force of the Actuarial Standards Board has been working since early 2010 on the development of new Actuarial Standards of Practice to provide guidance to actuaries when providing professional services related to certain aspects of Enterprise Risk Management. The first such ASOP Exposure Draft, regarding Risk Evaluation was released in the Spring of 2012, and a second Exposure Draft, on the topic of Risk Treatment was released in June of 2012. Members of the task force will discuss the motivation behind the development of these ASOPs, their content, and an update on their development.
Source: 2012 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type: concurrent
Moderators: Luyang Fu
Panelists: Kevin Madigan, Dave Sandberg

Determining Tail Factors

Come and share methods to determine tail factors.
Source: 2012 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type: concurrent
Panelists: John Narvell

Current Trends and Issues in Medical Professional Liability

Practitioners in medical professional liability are challenged by the low frequency / high severity nature of professional liability claims and the relative lack of standardized data in the industry. This session will describe the collection and analysis of claim and exposure databases. There will also be a discussion regarding current trends in claim frequency and severity, and the impact such trends would have on reserve and funding studies being prepared by actuaries. In addition, discussion will be held on the interplay between a company's medical professional liability reserves and industry reserves.
Source: 2012 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type: concurrent
Moderators: Luyang Fu
Panelists: Gregory Larcher, Charles Mitchell

Current Issues with Asbestos

U.S. property casualty insurers continue to recognize additional asbestos losses, with increases averaging $2 billion per year for the last six years, net of reinsurance. During this session, we will provide an overview of insurers’ Annual Statement Note 33 disclosures and discuss some of the reasons for the seemingly never-ending increases in recognized liabilities. We will also briefly contrast insurers’ disclosures with those made by corporate defendants in their SEC Form 10-K filings. Additionally, we will present information regarding recent asbestos claim trends, including statistics on annual filed claims with details relating to mesothelioma and lung cancer, trends by state and plaintiff firm, and claims for second hand exposure and females. Finally, we will discuss issues that are likely to affect the future of asbestos litigation and liability estimation.
Source: 2012 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type: concurrent
Moderators: Luyang Fu
Panelists: Steven Lin, Brad Drew

Considerations in Evaluating Changing Conditions

In an ideal situation, loss reserving would begin with a long, stable history of consistent claim experience with no significant environmental or operational changes affecting the mix of business, claim handling, or terms of coverage. However, that situation is often far from the reality. Changing conditions contribute to volatility and uncertainty in estimates that are mechanically produced. The intermediate track begins with a series of considerations that can help bring understanding of the volatility of initial estimates. These considerations lead us to diagnostic tools for clues. More complete understanding requires communication with other operating units.
Source: 2012 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type: concurrent
Panelists: Jane Taylor, Theodore Shalack

Commercial Lines - A Potpourri of Reserving Issues

This interesting and informative session is designed to cover a variety of reserving topics for commercial lines of business that are not necessarily part of the actuary’s everyday “bag of tricks.” First, we will focus in on approaches to reserving for construction defects, a “nontraditional exposure”. We will introduce and discuss the important aspects of construction risks that must be understood before beginning an analysis, provide warnings of potential pitfalls that can be encountered, and offer specific approaches that actuaries may find useful for these risks. Next, we will show how to use the Cape Cod and the Backward Recursive methods. These two very useful projection techniques are ones that you may have heard of, but never knew how (or when) to use. Finally, we will discuss ways of reflecting the impact of the insurance cycle in reserving and techniques used to allocate IBNR to subgroups.
Source: 2012 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type: concurrent
Moderators: Luyang Fu
Panelists: Gail Ross, Kim Piersol, Scott Anderson

Catastrophe Reserving: Catching the Tiger By The Tail

Catastrophe losses were a significant contributor to industry financial results for 2011. In addition, many different types of catastrophe losses have been affecting financial results, and these tend to cover more of the year than the traditional hurricane season. This session will cover best practices around catastrophe reserving, including different bases for establishing these reserves and managing the estimates as time passes and the events become more mature. This session will also focus on recent case studies in catastrophe reserving, how they were reserved by industry participants, and how the recent catastrophe activity has caused changes in how companies view their catastrophe aggregation processes as well as present them to external interested parties.
Source: 2012 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type: concurrent
Moderators: Luyang Fu
Panelists: Chandrakant Patel, Jeffrey Casaday

Case Study

Developed as a workshop, this session covers the concepts discussed in the preceding intermediate sessions. Audience members are encouraged to analyze and discuss the cases, and propose techniques to apply for estimating the loss reserves. Various techniques will be discussed and a calculator will be helpful. Laptop computers are not necessary, but if participants have them. Excel spreadsheets will be available to let participants test multiple scenarios. The spreadsheet will be available on the CAS Web Site following the seminar.
Source: 2012 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type: concurrent, workshop
Panelists: Nancy Arico, Christopher Andersen

Captive Insurance Regulations and Reserve Certification

This 'Ask the Regulator' session will feature the expertise of captive regulators representing three U.S. domiciles each of whom will bring a wealth of knowledge in terms of financial examination and regulation of captive insurance companies. The format of the session will be a moderated panel discussion where audience participation will be expected. So, come prepared to learn about the nuances of captive insurance regulation, the examination process and loss reserve certification.
Source: 2012 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type: concurrent
Moderators: Luyang Fu
Panelists: Stephanie Lefkowski, Ross Elliott, Steve Kinion

Captive Basics and Trends for Casualty Actuaries

The objectives of this session will be to orient attendees to what a captive is and why companies form them as well as explore the role of captive industry professionals highlighted by actuarial involvement. Participants will learn about current captive trends, captive structures, and their benefits: risk management, economic, and tax. This session will also address the captive feasibility process, captive cost considerations, capitalization, benchmarking, and captive domiciles. The panelists work with captives in various capacities and will share insight about their perspectives and interactions with actuaries.
Source: 2012 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type: concurrent
Moderators: Luyang Fu
Panelists: Kevin Kelley, Ellen Charnley, Paul Boatman

Basic Track III - You Set the Reserve!

During this last session within the Basic Track, participants will receive three sets of data and will be asked to develop reserve estimates using the basic methods presented. A calculator will be helpful. Laptop computers are not necessary, but if participants have them, Excel spreadsheets will be available to let participants test multiple scenarios. The spreadsheet will also be available online following the seminar.
Source: 2012 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type: concurrent
Panelists: Christopher Lattin, Jason Kurtz

Basic Track II: Comparison of Techniques

Building on Basic Track session I, this session will present basic questions surrounding a reserve estimate: “Is it reasonable?” and “How sensitive is the estimate to alternative assumptions?” Participants will then walk through basic expected loss ratio methods, comparing them with the loss development method. Advantages and disadvantages of methods will be presented. The session will conclude by describing the Annual Statement Schedule P, with terminology and data available from that schedule.
Source: 2012 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type: concurrent
Panelists: Marc Oberholtzer, Kurt Johnson

Basic Track I - Considerations In Evaluating Reserves

Basic understanding begins with the “CAS Statement of Principles Regarding Loss and Loss Adjustment Expense Reserves,” including the definitions and considerations that guide the actuary. Following the discussion for the “Statement of Principles,” participants will walk through, step-by-step, the most basic of reserving techniques – the loss development method. The presentation will include examples of data organization, link ratios, key assumptions, and potential problems.
Source: 2012 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type: concurrent
Panelists: Marc Pearl, N. Godbold

ASOPs that Affect Reserving

When considering actuarial standards of practice that affect reserving or loss reserve opinions, many actuaries immediately think of ASOP No. 43 (P/C Unpaid Claim Estimates) and ASOP No. 36 (SAO Regarding P/C Loss and Loss Adjustment Expense Reserves). However, there are at least 6 other ASOPs that could impact reserving. If you are an appointed actuary or otherwise participate in the reserving or opinion process, this session will provide a lively discussion of all the relevant ASOPs and will give real world examples of how these ASOPs apply.
Source: 2012 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type: concurrent
Panelists: Paul Struzzieri, Alejandra Nolibos, N. Godbold

An Update on the Economy from the Federal Reserve

The fiscal cliff is in front of us. The economy is under constant pressure and interest rates are at historic lows. In this presentation, an economist from the Federal Reserve will review current macroeconomic statistics with commentary regarding the derivation of these statistics and projections going forward.
Source: 2012 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type: general
Moderators: Luyang Fu
Panelists: Alison Felix

An Update on IFRS for Insurance

The IASB and the FASB have divergent views on how IFRS for Insurance might work. The CAS Accounting Changes Task Force was formed to monitor how IFRS develops, provide research for the American Academy of Actuaries Public Policy Statements on this topic, as well as educate CAS membership. The Task force under the direction of the Chair Steve Visner has been monitoring the re-deliberations of the two boards that have occurred since the release of the IASB Exposure Draft and the FASB Discussion Paper. Many developments are expected over the coming months, culminating in possible final regulations from both accounting bodies in the second half of 2012. Of particular interest to actuaries will be issues related to risk margins, discounting, and financial statement presentation, each of which will require potential major changes in the manner actuaries perform their day to day work. This panel will discuss the latest developments in this area, important areas of divergence between the IASB and the FASB, and practical implications for P/C actuaries in the U.S..
Source: 2012 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type: concurrent
Moderators: Luyang Fu
Panelists: Orin Linden, Marc Oberholtzer, Parr Schoolman, Gareth Kennedy