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STAY TUNED! If you are anticipating additional search filters by attribute and level to align with the CAS Capability Model, it is coming later this Summer. As the CAS begins to code recorded sessions by specific attributes and levels (starting with the 2023 Annual Meeting), these will be tagged in the CAS database of presentations going forward and should be searchable.
But you may use the Capability Model now to help you identify topics. For example, if you want to move up one level under the content area “Functional Expertise,” you may search topics in the particular functional area to expand your knowledge.
Recorded content is searchable by Capability Model attribute and level in the CAS Online Library.
Current Issues and Trends in Medical Professional Liability
Researchers in medical malpractice are challenged by the low frequency / high severity nature of professional liability claims and the relative lack of standardized data in the industry. This session will describe the collection and analysis of claim and exposure databases and will provide discussion regarding current trends in claim frequency and severity and the impact such trends would have on reserve and funding studies being prepared by actuaries.
Source:
2011 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Christina Gwilliam
Panelists:
David Na, Joshua Zirin, Erik Johnson
Commercial Lines - A Potpourri of Reserving Issues
This interesting and informative session is designed to cover a variety of reserving topics for commercial lines of business that are not necessarily part of the actuary's every day "bag of tricks." First, we will focus in on approaches to reserving for "nontraditional exposures" such as construction defect. Next, we will show how to use the Cape Cod and the Backward Recursive methods. These two very useful projection techniques are ones that you may have heard of, but never knew how (or when) to use. Finally, we will discuss ways of reflecting the impact of the insurance cycle in reserving and techniques used to allocate IBNR to subgroups.
Source:
2011 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Christina Gwilliam
Panelists:
Kim Piersol, Thomas Ryan
The Very Very Basic Guide to Reserve Variability and Ranges
This session will explain basic concepts associated with reserve variability and reserve ranges. It will start by describing the guidance that the Actuarial Standards of Practice are providing to practicing actuaries regarding the measurement of reserve uncertainty. Current market and regulatory trends that focus on the measurement of reserve uncertainty will also be described. In the second part of the session, basic stochastic terminology will be explained in lay terms. The audience should leave the session with a better understanding of the various types of risks measured in stochastic analysis and a basic understanding of the underlying ideas behind the most popular stochastic models and methods. This session will close with a case study/role play.
Source:
2011 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Christina Gwilliam
Panelists:
Manolis Bardis
Reinsurance Reserving Benchmarks: A Toolkit for a Practicing Actuary
Excess loss reserving data is often difficult to interpret: in reviewing a single line of business, actuaries have to cope with changes in mix of business and attachment points, inconsistencies in contract inception dates, cedants' reporting and claims handling, and the list goes on… Wide availability of industry and company data in the public domain facilitates dealing with these issues.
The panel of experts will discuss the available industry studies, their basis and possible applications, offering answers to some of the many questions arising from analysis of loss development of excess loss portfolios:
What is the quality of the data underlying the industry studies?
How to choose an appropriate pattern?
How to deal with reporting lags?
How to deal with changing attachment point profile?
Plenty of time will be set aside for discussion, the audience' participation is encouraged.
Source:
2011 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Christina Gwilliam
Panelists:
Christopher Bozman, Jonathan Evans
Medical Professional Liability Insurance Reserving 101
Medical Professional Liability Insurance (MPLI) is a long-tailed, multi-faceted line of business with significant historical volatility. Some of the many issues that affect MPLI reserving include issues related to claims-made and extended reporting endorsement policy forms, handling of legal defense costs low frequency/high severity claims, influences of state-specific laws and regulations among others. This session will begin by exploring how a typical carrier would approach a MPLI reserve analysis and address some of the challenges that arise during the portfolio segmentation phase. The speakers will then compare several of the most common projection methods used to estimate MPLI reserves. Due to its relevance to MPLI, the speakers will also present an overview of the Death, Disability & Retirement benefit contained in many claims-made policy forms along with an illustrative example of how reserves for this coverage are estimated.
Source:
2011 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Christina Gwilliam
Panelists:
Kevin Dyke, Derek Freihaut, Peter Rauner
IRS Audit Activity - P&C Loss Reserve Challenges
The Internal Revenue Service has substantially increased its scrutiny of the loss reserve tax deductions of property/casualty insurers. The new and more aggressive IRS posture is confirmed in an important IRS Coordinated Issue Paper on loss reserves. Many P&C insurers nationwide are facing IRS challenges to their carried loss reserves. Actuary Susan Forray and attorney Dick Riley, from their respective professional perspectives, will discuss loss reserving issues and procedures most affected by these IRS audits. The panelists will also discuss the current status of IRS Examination and Appeals activity plus court cases, and how companies can best prepare for and respond to IRS enforcement activity in this area.
Source:
2011 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Christina Gwilliam
Panelists:
Susan Forray, Richard Riley
Estimating the Cost of Black Lung Claims
An examination of an approach that use commonly applied property casualty actuarial techniques to estimate the unpaid cost of losses and allocated claim expenses due to coal worker pneumoconiosis (black lung) for coal mining operations that either self-insure or retain a significant portion of the financial cost of these claims. Discussion will include use of United States Department of Labor data, how it was used, and the potential impact of the PPACA of 2010 on these costs and the analysis.
Source:
2011 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Christina Gwilliam
Panelists:
Scott Lefkowitz, Steven McKinnon
Bermuda Market Update and Outlook
The Bermuda reinsurance market has evolved into a major force in the US market during the last decade. Historically, Bermuda companies have been able to quickly adapt in challenging times.
However, how are Bermuda companies reacting to the current economic cycle and dealing with the issues of excess capital, potential high inflation, consolidation, new cat events and regulatory changes? In this presentation, we look at the historical development of the Bermuda market, its current characteristics and results as well as the future outlook.
Source:
2011 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Ellen Fitzsimmons
Panelists:
Navid Zarinejad, Pablo Nunez
Basic Track III - You Set the Reserve!
During this last session within the Basic Track, participants will receive three sets of data and will be asked to develop reserve estimates using the basic methods presented. A calculator will be helpful. Laptop computers are not necessary, but if participants have them, Excel spreadsheets will be available to let participants test multiple scenarios. The spreadsheet will also be available online following the seminar.
Source:
2011 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Panelists:
Christopher Lattin, Jason Kurtz
Avoiding Litigation and Disciplinary Risk
As a practicing actuary you may face the risk of professional litigation or disciplinary risk in pursuing your profession. Learn how to reduce these risks for yourself and your company, from a panel of experts including an attorney who specializes in defending actuaries in professional litigation, an attorney for a major consulting firm and a former member of the ABCD.
Source:
2011 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Mei Dong
Panelists:
R. Muth
A Link Between the One-Year and Ultimate Perspective on Reserve Risk
Pillar 1 of Solvency II requires an insurance company to calculate the Solvency Capital Requirement ("SCR"), the capital required to ensure that the company will be able to meet its obligations over a one-year time horizon with a probability of at least 99.5%. The framework for valuing reserve liabilities required by the SCR (99.5%-percentile of liabilities' value over 1-year) is very different from the current actuarial methods for valuing reserve liabilities (best estimate of ultimate value over lifetime of liability). This session will address the issue of building a practical link between these two perspectives. Methods discussed make use of time-scaling properties of reserve variability and the calculation of variability measures based on an empirical analysis of industry data.
Source:
2011 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Mei Dong
Panelists:
Mark McCluskey, Stuart White
Solvency II: Risk Margins and Technical Provisions
The study of reserve risk has become an academic discipline in its own right. There are talks on the subject at most of the major P&C conferences, including this one, and several PhDs have emerged on the subject. Despite the abundance of discussion, the subject is still a bit mysterious, and can appear complex. This is not helped by the fact that there are two different measures of reserve risk: the standard actuarial view that looks over the lifetime of the liabilities, and the "one-year" view of Solvency II (the European regulatory capital regime). This presentation will compare analytical and simulation based techniques, and the "lifetime" and "one-year" views, and attempt to clarify and harmonise the approaches. The presentation will also consider risk margins in simulation based capital models under Solvency II.
Source:
2011 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Panelists:
Peter England
Solvency II Update
Solvency II - Update and Current Events
The European Union will soon be adopting Solvency II, a new and robust set of regulatory requirements that will shape the management and reporting of the insurance industry in Europe and beyond. Extensive requirements are being developed that will require companies to determine their capital requirements via economic models, to develop more robust procedures and controls surrounding their operations and financial reporting, and to provide more extensive and transparent disclosures to both regulators and the public.
Over the last year significant developments have been made by companies affected by Solvency II as they prepare for this "new world". The recent quantitative impact studies have given greater clarity as to the calibration of the standard formula, while many are developing new internal capital models to better reflect their risks and take advantage of reduced capital requirements.
This session will start with an overview of Solvency II, including a description of the "three pillars" of regulatory requirements, the expected timelines and recent developments and the concept of "equivalence" of regulatory regimes in other countries - especially the impact on the US. It will then move on to the practical challenges companies are facing as they attempt to make sense of the complexities of Solvency II and translate it into real-world practices embedded throughout the organization, with particular focus on the extensive and onerous Internal Model Approval Process.
Source:
2011 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Panelists:
David Payne, Richard Doman
Reinsurance Reserving and The Underwriting Cycle
Many reserving techniques require assumptions regarding expected ultimate losses and LAE. Actuaries may track average prices, frequency and severity trends, legal, demographic, and other economic factors and trends. In the case of reinsurance, the reserving actuary is further removed from the underlying insurance policies and must make similar types of assumptions with less direct information and for business assumed from multiple primary insurers with varying markets. This session will explore assumptions and methods that can be used to estimate the effects of the underwriting cycle on reserving parameters.
Source:
2011 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Panelists:
John Aquino, Michael Rozema
Premium Deficiency Reserves: How Much and Why?
Although recently the subject of some attention by the NAIC, premium deficiency reserves (PDRs) do not always receive the attention they deserve. All companies are required under SAP and GAAP to determine whether they need a PDR, but the reserve is rarely carried and may not be fully understood-perhaps because it is part of the unearned premium reserve and not subject to an actuarial opinion. This session will first describe the relevant accounting and actuarial guidance and discuss the basic approach to determining whether a PDR is necessary and how much it should be. The second part of the session will discuss some of the common issues and challenges surrounding the PDR and will emphasize why this reserve may be more important than is commonly recognized, particularly in a soft market.
Source:
2011 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Mei Dong
Panelists:
Kenneth Quintilian, Justin Brenden
Introductory Group Healthcare Reserving
An overview of healthcare reserving will be presented which will include a discussion of the types of reserves held for common healthcare products and the methodologies used to value those reserves. Also included will be a deep dive into considerations and approaches for developing healthcare unpaid claim liabilities.
Source:
2011 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Mei Dong
Panelists:
Michael Cellini, Matthew Klaus
Directors & Officers Liability Policy Primer and Claim Modeling Potential
Directors & Officers Liability Insurance is one of the more sophisticated insurance products offered in the marketplace. The ability to properly model claim development requires a clear understanding of policy coverage provisions, exclusions, and the types of claims that potentially trigger coverage. The actuary is challenged to understand the intricacies of the claim counts and determine the applicability to the D&O policy. This proves increasingly difficult when analyzing an array of risk classes with differing D&O policy forms and coverage provisions, and corporate indemnification requirements.
The presenters will provide a primer on the basics of the D&O coverage form; including: Side A, B, and C; discuss the tie-in between corporate indemnification provision and the D&O policy; address the complication of defense costs; and settlement allocation. Claim examples will be used for illustrative purposes. The presentation will provide a broad overview of the methodology that is applied to claim modeling as well as listing of the key assumptions.
The attendees will increase their understanding on the mechanics of a D&O policy, coverage triggers and exclusions and be able to transfer this knowledge to assist in the claim model development.
Source:
2011 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Mei Dong
Panelists:
Benny Yuen, Mark Millard
Basic Track II: Comparison of Techniques
Building on Basic Track session I, this session will present basic questions surrounding a reserve estimate: "Is it reasonable?" and "How sensitive is the estimate to alternative assumptions?" Participants will then walk through basic expected loss ratio methods, comparing them with the loss development method. Advantages and disadvantages of methods will be presented. The session will conclude by describing the Annual Statement Schedule P, with terminology and data available from that schedule.
Source:
2011 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Panelists:
Marc Oberholtzer, Kurt Johnson
Assessing and Improving the Quality of Reserve Ranges
As actuaries move simply from providing point estimates to providing ranges, and as they become more familiar with techniques for developing these ranges it is natural to ask how well these techniques actually perform in describing the uncertainty surrounding our estimates. What are the underlying assumptions of these techniques (and underlying development models) and how can the practicing actuary become comfortable that these assumptions are met? What can be done if they are not?
Ben Zehnworth will discuss using the Bootstrap technique to assess the worth of any model, including the Mack method, in relation to the original data. The Bootstrap technique will be first explained in detail. Bootstrap samples derived from the Mack method will be compared with Bootstrap samples based on the optimal PTF model using several real datasets. The worth of the results derived from Bootstrap technique will be shown to be directly dependent on the validity of the model for the data.
Common current techniques for estimating reserve ranges (Mack, Bootstrapping, others) are often applied using simplifying assumptions. Chris Gross will discuss the impact of these assumptions, and will provide some practical estimation methods for when these assumptions do not hold. For example, correlation between periods. Testing of assumptions and hindsight testing of reserve ranges will be discussed, as will the important role of actuarial judgment in setting reserve ranges.
Source:
2011 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Alice Underwood
Panelists:
Ben Zehnwirth, Chris Gross
Impact of Healthcare Reform on the Economy and Reserving
Source:
2011 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
keynote
Panelists:
Diana Lynch
Trends in Enterprise Risk Management
This past year, both the NAIC and A.M. Best stepped up their ERM requirements for the insurance industry which will accelerate insurers' efforts to more fully develop their risk management programs and influence future ERM trends going forward.
The panelists will provide highlights and implications of the NAIC's emerging ORSA requirements and Best's new ERM questions posed in its annual ratings questionnaire, and will also discuss how companies can best prepare for these new requirements.
In a case study, the panelists will also provide their viewpoints related to a P&C insurer's efforts to jumpstart its ERM program in a more deliberate way after several years of sub-par performance and Best citing ERM as a key area of weakness for the company.
Source:
2011 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Panelists:
Thomas Mount, Eric Simpson
Reserving under a New Insurance Contracts Accounting Standard
The FASB and IASB have a joint project with the potential to revolutionize the way in which P&C insurance contracts are valued and reported. The IASB is expected to issue its new standard in late 2011. Claims liabilities are proposed to be valued on the basis of fulfillment value, using a Building Block approach.
The three components to the approach are 1) an expected nominal value of the future cash flows, 2) an adjustment for discount to reflect the time value of money, and 3) a risk margin provision to reflect the uncertainty inherent in the future cash flows.
The panellists will describe the Building Block framework being proposed and explore some of the conceptual and practical issues related to each component. They will also provide an update of NAIC activities regarding potential enhancements to solvency monitoring and statutory reporting, and how certain elements relate to the concepts proposed in the joint project.
Source:
2011 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Alice Underwood
Panelists:
Robert Miccolis, Gareth Kennedy, Kris DeFrain
Open Source Loss Simulation Model
The Dynamic Risk Modeling Committee and Committee on Reserves are jointly sponsoring the 2011 CLRS Call for Papers on "Testing Loss Reserving Methods, Models and Data Using the Loss Simulation Model." The Loss Simulation Model was developed by the Dynamic Risk Modeling Committee with CAS Support. It is an open source simulation model of the processes of loss emergence and settlement, commonly known as loss development, that underlie the loss "triangles" and other statistics used to estimate unpaid claims. Both the run time version and the source code are now available on the CAS web site, along with the Loss Simulation Model Working Party paper and complete model instructions and documentation. The panelists will present the model and highlights of the working party paper entitled "Modeling Loss Emergence and Settlement Processes." Kailan Shang will present his paper on "Loss Simulation Model Testing and Enhancement."
Source:
2011 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
paper
Moderators:
Alice Underwood
Panelists:
Joseph Marker, Hai You, Kailan Shang
Keywords:
Open Source Loss Simulation Model
Florida Property Line Reserving in the Post SB 408 Environment
As a result of Senate Bill 408, the reserving environment for portfolios that include significant exposure in the Florida personal property market will be significantly impacted. Historical loss development patterns will likely not be as reflective of the future as actuaries would prefer and often assume.
A summary of the important changes introduced by SB 408 will be provided. A description of future desired changes by the insurance industry in the operating environment that may also impact the unpaid liability estimates even further will also be provided.
The hidden impact of sinkhole losses within the traditional data will be provided to highlight the importance of these losses in projecting Florida personal property unpaid liabilities. This potential impact is critical for Florida-only property insurers as well as larger regional and national insurers with significant Florida property exposure.
Source:
2011 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Alice Underwood
Panelists:
John Wade, Nathan Godbold, James Graganella
Extreme Development Techniques
When claims and exposure data are nearly non-existent or when long-tailed liabilities are deep in the tail of development, traditional methods do not produce reliable answers, and "extreme development techniques" are required. While some of these methods are extensions of traditional development methods, others are novel approaches to viewing loss development and projecting future claims.
This session will discuss a number of examples of such extreme development methods and models that may be useful to actuaries who are modeling long-tailed lines of business, run-off portfolios, or reinsurance liabilities.
Source:
2011 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Alice Underwood
Panelists:
Christopher Diamantoukos, Justin Brenden, Shaun Cullinane
