Current Issues in California Workers Compensation
The California Workers Compensation market has been a market of extremes over the last 20 years. This session will provide a brief historical perspective and then delve into current issues related to recent legislation, rulings and economic factors driving frequency, severity and development. It will also discuss the recent statewide pure premium rate indications.
Source:
2011 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
John Lewandowski
Panelists:
Alex Swedlow, Guy Avagliano
Captive Basics and Trends for Casualty Actuaries
The objectives of this session will be to orient actuaries to what a captive is and why companies form them. Participants will learn about current captive trends and hot topics, captive structures, the risk management and economic and tax benefits captives can bring companies. This session will also address the captive feasibility process, the role of the Actuary, at the beginning and annually, captive cost considerations, capitalization, benchmarking and captive domiciles.
Source:
2011 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
John Lewandowski
Panelists:
Michael Serricchio, Maila Aganon, Linda Johnson, Nicola Neilon
Basic Track I - Considerations In Evaluating Reserves
Basic understanding begins with the "CAS Statement of Principles Regarding Loss and Loss Adjustment Expense Reserves," including the definitions and considerations that guide the actuary. Following the discussion for the "Statement of Principles," participants will walk through, step-by-step, the most basic of reserving techniques - the loss development method. The presentation will include examples of data organization, link ratios, key assumptions, and potential problems.
Source:
2011 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Panelists:
David Vogt, Marc Pearl
Challenges and Opportunities for the P/C Insurance Industry
Following 2008-09, two extremely tough years for the P-C industry, 2010 was better and 2011 might even surpass it. We are tempted to look to 2012 expecting an even stronger and more profitable year. Yet it seems that each positive development comes with a challenge.
Some examples:
Will persistently low inflation give way to a rebirth of higher inflation?
Will another year without major hurricanes lead to increased resistance to setting risk-appropriate property insurance rates?
Tort reforms enacted in the last decade slowed the tort onslaught of earlier times, but will the tort bar and its allies succeed in reversing these reforms?
Now that the Great Recession is officially over and a recovery-great or not-is underway, how long will it take to get back to "normal," and how will that affect the industry's operations?
The session will discuss these topics in historical context and-perhaps-lead some attendees to form an optimistic outlook.
Source:
2011 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
general
Moderators:
John Lewandowski
Panelists:
Steven Weisbart
Actuaries as CROs - Transitioning to a New Role
Presenters touched on a wide variey of issues which the audience found engaging and informative. Some of the topics included their own career development, skills they've found helpful as a CRO, how to discuss risk management issues to a non-technical audience and a few thought provoking stories from various situations throughout their careers.
Source:
2011 Regional Affiliate - CAE
Type:
affiliate
Panelists:
Charles Goldie, Don Gambardella, David Hughes
Keywords:
CRO
Microinsurance: Reducing Poverty One Policy at a Time?
Source:
2011 Regional Affiliate - CAE
Type:
affiliate
Panelists:
Dermot Grenham
Keywords:
Microinsurance
Hybrid Chain Ladder Reserving Method
Source:
2011 Regional Affiliate - CAE
Type:
affiliate
Panelists:
Philipp Arbenz
Keywords:
Hybrid Chain Ladder
On the Accuracy of Loss Reserving
Source:
2011 Regional Affiliate - CAE
Type:
affiliate
Panelists:
Rocco Cerchiara
Keywords:
loss reserving
Update on US Solvency Modernization Initiative
Source:
2011 Regional Affiliate - CAE
Type:
affiliate
Panelists:
Kris DeFrain
Keywords:
US Solvency Modernization
CAS Update
Source:
2011 Regional Affiliate - CAE
Type:
affiliate
Panelists:
Kathryn Morgan
Texas Legislative update
Source:
2011 Regional Affiliate - SWAF
Type:
affiliate
Keywords:
Legislative
Expanding Analytics through the Use of Machine Learning
Source:
2011 Regional Affiliate - SWAF
Type:
affiliate
Panelists:
Chris Cooksey
Keywords:
Expanding Analytics
Augmenting GLMs with Saddles
Source:
2011 Regional Affiliate - SWAF
Type:
affiliate
Panelists:
Serhat Guven
Keywords:
GLMs, Augmenting GLMs
ASOP 43 and ASOP 36
Source:
2011 Regional Affiliate - SWAF
Type:
affiliate
Panelists:
Lisa Slotznick
Keywords:
ASOP 43 and ASOP 36
Health Care Reform Overview
Source:
2011 Regional Affiliate - SCCAC
Type:
affiliate
Keywords:
Health Care
Territorial Ratemaking
Source:
2011 Regional Affiliate - SCCAC
Type:
affiliate
Keywords:
Ratemaking
If I Could Have Predicted My Modeling... or Questions From a Predictive Modeler in Small Business Insurance
Source:
2011 Regional Affiliate - SCCAC
Type:
affiliate
Keywords:
Predictive Modeler in Small Business Insurance
Medical Professional Liability Insurance Costs at a Crossroads
Many factors suggest that medical professional liability (MPL) insurance costs are likely to rise in the near future. In addition to general inflationary pressure, these factors include successful challenges to MPL tort reform at the state level, recent trends in MPL insurance costs, and increased utilization resulting from aging baby boomers and healthcare reform. Other aspects of the new healthcare reform law are also likely to impact MPL insurance costs. We plan to discuss the impact of these potential changes on healthcare providers, liability insurers and medical professionals.
Source:
2011 Regional Affiliate - CASE
Type:
affiliate
Panelists:
John Gibson, Dorothy Woodrum
Keywords:
Medical Professional Liabilities, Costs
Loss Reserve Ranges and Their Variailities
Practical applications will be presented for the development of ranges for central estimates and loss distributions. Various methods for determining central estimates will be presented for losses, defense and adjusting reserves. Bootstrapping and lognormal simulations will be discussed as well as correlation among lines of business. The methods are based on CAS papers and a bibliography will be provided for further study.
Source:
2011 Regional Affiliate - CASE
Type:
affiliate
Panelists:
Patrick Crowe
Keywords:
Loss Resrve, Variailies
A Taxonomy of the North Carolina Beach Plan
What started out as a small underwriting association created in the 1960's to help promote the development of the shoreline of the state, has achieved that goal, but has gone far beyond it to become the third leading provider of residential property insurance in the state. The Plan has undergone several metamorphoses in the last several years, each of which has had challenging actuarial implications. This talk will discuss the evolution of this beast.
Source:
2011 Regional Affiliate - CASE
Type:
affiliate
Panelists:
Kevin Conley
Keywords:
A Taxonomy
Auto Injury Claim Trends & Other Recent Findings from the Insurance Research Council
The Insurance Research Council (IRC) provides timely and reliable empirical research to all parties involved in public policy issues affecting risk and insurance. The IRC addresses subjects relating to all lines of property-casualty insurance, including coverages of automobiles, homes, businesses, municipalities, and professionals. This presentation will review recent research of the IRC, including studies of auto injury claim trends in Florida, New York and Washington and other recent findings.
Source:
2011 Regional Affiliate - CAMAR
Type:
affiliate
Panelists:
David Corum
Keywords:
Claim Trends, Auto
Generalized Linear Mixed Models for Ratemaking: A Means of Introducing Credibility into a Generalized Linear Model Setting
Generalized Linear Models (GLMs) that include explanatory classification variables with sparsely populated levels assign large standard errors to these levels but do not otherwise shrink estimates toward the mean in response to low credibility. Accordingly, actuaries have attempted to superimpose credibility on a GLM setting, frequently via somewhat ad hoc adjustments. The Generalized Linear Mixed Model (GLMM) is another way of introducing credibility-like shrinkage toward the mean in a GLM setting. Recently available statistical software renders these models more readily accessible to actuaries. This presentation will offer background on GLMMs and present a case study displaying shrinkage towards the mean very similar to Buhlmann-Straub credibility.
Source:
2011 Regional Affiliate - CAMAR
Type:
affiliate
Panelists:
Fred Klinker
Keywords:
GLM, Generalized Linear Mixed Models for Ratemaking
Text Mining on Unstructured Data
It is generally believed that about 80% of all data is unstructured data. Unstructured data is data that is not contained in specified formats with values that have a definite meaning to users and typically it is found in a computerized database. Unstructured data includes: free-form claim description fields in a claims database, underwriter notes in an underwriting file, the title and contents of e-mails, answers to open-ended survey questions, and words or phrases typed into a search engine. Unstructured data is often ignored when performing predictive modeling analyses. This session will give an overview of some kinds of unstructured data and how they can be used in predictive modeling. Specific examples of the application of text mining will be provided and some of the key literature on the topic will be reviewed.
Source:
2011 Regional Affiliate - CAMAR
Type:
affiliate
Panelists:
Janine Johnson
Keywords:
Text Mining, Unstructured Data
Medical Professional Liability in a Changing Health Care Environment
The delivery of health care is poised for change. National health care reform is bringing electronic medical records, doctor reimbursements based on quality of service, new efficient care facilities, and potentially 32 million previously uninsured. This session will examine the impact of reform on an already stressed health care environment plagued with physician shortages, economic constraints, tort challenges, an aging population, and the need for nurse practitioners to provide more care. Medical professional liability insurance companies will need to change how they view and manage risk, defend claims, manage new data systems, and price policies to avoid erosion of profits. Within this landscape of change, there is a developing path for profitable growth; the session concludes with strategies for outperformance.
Source:
2011 Regional Affiliate - CAMAR
Type:
affiliate
Panelists:
Jeffrey Thompson
Keywords:
Medical Professional Liabitily, Health CarEnvironment
Professionalism Session: Statements and Standards and Codes - Oh, My!
The CAS recently posted proposed Foundational Statements for comments, with the indication that if adopted these statements would replace the Statements of Principles. Substantial comments were elicited generally favoring retention of the Statements of Principles. This program will discuss some perceived incentives for retention, repeal and/or revision of the Statements of Principles, provide an update on the status of the Statements of Principles and review their importance to actuaries in the context of other professional pronouncements.
Source:
2011 Regional Affiliate - CAMAR
Type:
affiliate
Panelists:
Timothy Wisecarver
Keywords:
Professionalism