Search Presentations
STAY TUNED! If you are anticipating additional search filters by attribute and level to align with the CAS Capability Model, it is coming later this Summer. As the CAS begins to code recorded sessions by specific attributes and levels (starting with the 2023 Annual Meeting), these will be tagged in the CAS database of presentations going forward and should be searchable.
But you may use the Capability Model now to help you identify topics. For example, if you want to move up one level under the content area “Functional Expertise,” you may search topics in the particular functional area to expand your knowledge.
Recorded content is searchable by Capability Model attribute and level in the CAS Online Library.
Refine Your Search
The presentation materials are offered in connection with CAS professional education offerings. © 2022 Casualty Actuarial Society. All Rights Reserved. The presentation materials may contain copyrighted content the use of which has not been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. You are permitted to view and print the materials for personal/professional noncommercial research purposes. Except for the foregoing, you agree not to reproduce, distribute, modify, create derivative works, or commercially exploit the presentation materials without prior written permission from CAS. Please direct any copyright permission inquiries regarding use of the presentation materials to acs@casact.org.
STAY TUNED! If you are anticipating additional search filters by attribute and level to align with the CAS Capability Model, it is coming later this Summer. As the CAS begins to code recorded sessions by specific attributes and levels (starting with the 2023 Annual Meeting), these will be tagged in the CAS database of presentations going forward and should be searchable.
But you may use the Capability Model now to help you identify topics. For example, if you want to move up one level under the content area “Functional Expertise,” you may search topics in the particular functional area to expand your knowledge.
Recorded content is searchable by Capability Model attribute and level in the CAS Online Library.
Selection Bias - What you don't know may hurt your bottom line
Source:
2011 Regional Affiliate - CANW
Type:
affiliate
Moderators:
John Peel
Keywords:
Selection Bias
Government Run Insurance Programs
Source:
2011 Regional Affiliate - CANW
Type:
affiliate
Moderators:
John Peel
Keywords:
Insurance Programs, government
Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) Fundamentals
The focus on Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) is intensifying and the topic is clearly not a passing fad. We will discuss ERM fundamentals that are appropriate for all organizations, compare and contrast differing interpretations of the term, and the different ways that individuals think about and manage risk. We will also briefly discuss recent activity of the Actuarial Standards Board and the International Actuarial Association regarding the likely evolution of Actuarial Standards of Practice related to ERM.
Source:
2011 Regional Affiliate - CASE
Type:
affiliate
Moderators:
Nicole Elliott
Keywords:
Enterprise Risk Managemt, ERM
What is…Professionalism?
We all learn about ASOPs and Codes of Conduct though taking exams and the Course on Professionalism, but how well do you really know your stuff? Come refresh your knowledge of actuarial professionalism in this interactive session! We will play a trivia game that will cover a number of topics, helping you determine what you know and what you might want to review. Who said professionalism can't be fun? This session may count as professional continuing education.
Source:
2011 Regional Affiliate - CASE
Type:
affiliate
Moderators:
Nicole Elliott
Keywords:
Professionalism, ASOPs and Codes of Conduct
Medical Professional Liability Insurance Costs at a Crossroads
Many factors suggest that medical professional liability (MPL) insurance costs are likely to rise in the near future. In addition to general inflationary pressure, these factors include successful challenges to MPL tort reform at the state level, recent trends in MPL insurance costs, and increased utilization resulting from aging baby boomers and healthcare reform. Other aspects of the new healthcare reform law are also likely to impact MPL insurance costs. We plan to discuss the impact of these potential changes on healthcare providers, liability insurers and medical professionals.
Source:
2011 Regional Affiliate - CASE
Type:
affiliate
Moderators:
C.K. Khury
Keywords:
Medical Professional Liailities, Costs
Regulatory Reform - Convergence or Divergence in Systemic Risk, Risk Governance, Transparency and Capital Change
Significant anticipated changes in both the intensity of supervision and global coordinated regulation have increased uncertainty in financial markets from fear of political or policy related unintended consequences and regulatory arbitrage. In this session, policy and regulatory leaders from various regulatory forums will explore the directions and impact of proposed regulatory reforms. They will debate how to regulate institutions "too big to fail," how to ensure that firms have "living wills," how senior supervisors coordinate their activities on a global basis, and how the shadow economy will be regulated: Developing incentives for corporate risk culture change and alignment to both long and short-term horizons as well as developing longer horizon counter-cyclical capital measures will also be explored. Each participant will provide brief remarks followed by a lively panel discussion.
Source:
2011 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium
Type:
general
Moderators:
C.K. Khury
Panelists:
Stuart Wason, Michael McRaith, Colin Lawrence, Thomas Day, William Hederman, Randall Dodd
The Next Challenge in the Evolution of Portfolio Management: Accounting for Liquidity in Pricing and Risk Assessment
The recent financial crisis and subsequent regulatory action have brought liquidity risk management to the spotlight. As financial institutions revisit liquidity risk management practices and adapt to tighter supervisory oversight, two themes emerge. First, liquidity risk, which is tied to other sources of risk in the balance sheet, should be measured and managed holistically at the enterprise level. Second, a tighter liquidity regimen will result in additional costs, which need to be priced appropriately. This session will explore an economic approach for the measurement and pricing of funding liquidity risk in a portfolio setting. The economic framework addresses the challenge of measuring liquidity risk of a portfolio of credit exposures with embedded options in an uncertain funding environment. The following topics will be highlighted: Calculation of expected and unexpected funding liquidity costs for individual exposures in the portfolio. Accounting for linkages between borrowers demand for funds and the cost of funds of the financial institution, and the impact of these linkages on risk and pricing measures. Integration of liquidity risk measurement within economic models for enterprise risk management. Application to origination pricing, transfer pricing, and risk-adjusted performance measurement.
Source:
2011 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Julie Joyce
Panelists:
Yaakov Tsaig
Awards Luncheon
David will give a presentation about Financial Markets 2020, a 13-month IBM research study about the future of the industry. This visionary study offers a preview of the future and makes practical recommendations for what firms need to do today to be best positioned.
The main topics of the study include:
* What are the largest drivers of change (and inertia)?
* Where is value being destroyed?
* What will financial markets look like in 2020?
* How can firms generate information alpha?
Source:
2011 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium
Type:
luncheon
Panelists:
David Notestein
VA Product Design: Creating Value Through ERM
ERM is often erroneously perceived by marketing and product development as another barrier to gain final product approval at the end. Another perception is that the "value pie" for policyholders and companies is fixed via a trade-off between benefits and profit. This session shows how ERM can create more value for the policyholder and simultaneously increase profit margins. It is not alchemy. Creating a bigger pie is the result of integrating risk management into product design at conception and during the development process.
This session will discuss preliminary results from the current research project "VA Risk Mitigation Strategies" sponsored by the SOA/CAS/CIA Joint Risk Management Research Team and the SOA's Committee on Finance Research. The project report will use case studies to depict the trade-offs between the revenue, profit and risk profile and to identify product designs that generate more manageable risk profiles for VA guarantees. The report will provide insights into how those designs mitigate the risks, the corresponding earning impacts and the resulting value for policyholders. Additional product design considerations will be addressed in a broader ERM context.
Source:
2011 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Steven Glicksman
Panelists:
Jin Li, Haibin Rao
Deriving Value from ERM: The Process of Embedding
While many organizations have introduced ERM as a key management function, the value of this discipline cannot be fully realized until effective ERM practices have become deeply ingrained within business processes. Yet industry surveys repeatedly reveal that companies continue to struggle with the process of embedding ERM within their organizations. Achieving broad and deep organizational understanding of ERM practices along with needed changes in behaviors may in fact prove to be the most time consuming and difficult tasks of ERM implementation.
This session will focus on the approaches certain organizations have adopted to successfully embed ERM within their organizations. We will focus on how risk culture, governance, the use of economic capital models and stress testing, alignment with strategic planning and targeting, risk analytics, and risk reporting each play a role in this important process.
Source:
2011 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium
Type:
concurrent
Best Credit Risk Management Practices in Insurance, Banking and Other Financial Services Industries
The speakers draw on their extensive risk management experience working with and advising insurers and banks. They will discuss the main challenges which the two industries are facing in devising a complete credit risk management system and integrating it with other risks as a part of a comprehensive ERM solution. They will also discuss the differences in credit risk management practices between two industries and what each could learn from the other.
Source:
2011 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
William Lakins
Panelists:
Dan Rosen
Selection Bias – What You Don’t Know Can Hurt Your Bottom Line
Data quality issues are common in insurance data. As actuaries we are very familiar with common data problems - missing values, wrong values, incorrectly coded data, gaps in the data - those which arise in our day-to-day work. Such data "hygiene" issues have received considerable attention in actuarial circles.
This session investigates a different type of data issue, often referred to as selection bias or sampling bias in the statistical literature. This issue has significant implications for the performance of predictive models and has not seen much coverage in the actuarial literature. Selection bias arises from the discrepancy between the sample on which the model is built and the target population to which the model will be applied. For example, can a model developed in Massachusetts in 2010 to predict whether a workers’ compensation claim is fraudulent be extrapolated to other states and future time periods? When selection bias is present in the modeling data, the results of traditional modeling approaches will reflect this inherent bias. It is important to understand and consider the potential for bias whenever the model is intended to make a prediction that will be applied to a broader population.
Gaetan Veilleux will discuss selection bias in the context of insurance modeling from a traditional perspective. He will define selection bias, provide some history on the topic, illustrate real-world examples inside and outside of insurance, and examine techniques that have been proposed to identify and/or adjust for the presence of selection bias.
Herbert Weisberg will discuss a new interpretation of the nature of selection bias based on the "counterfactual" perspective, which brings notions of causality back into statistical analysis. He will argue that complex probabilistic modeling cannot provide a quick-fix for selection bias. The fundamental problem is primarily conceptual rather than technical. From the counterfactual perspective, this problem is inherent in the limitations of the classical statistical framework. As a practical matter, judgment based on subject-matter expertise, and focused application of empirical validation techniques, are the most effective prophylactics against selection bias.
Source:
2011 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
William Murphy
Panelists:
Gaetan Veilleux, Herb Weisberg
Indemnity Benefit Duration, Maximum Weekly Benefits, and Claim
Pricing legislative changes is an integral part of NCCI ratemaking. An increase in the maximum weekly indemnity benefit for temporary total disability claims increases indemnity payments for given injury durations, but, at the same time, these injury durations may increase as well (among claimants affected by the benefit change), thus giving rise to an additional cost effect.
Source:
2011 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
paper
Moderators:
William Murphy
Panelists:
Frank Schmid
Keywords:
ratemaking, Indemnity Benefit Duration
Reserving in the Age of Obesity
There is increasing evidence that obesity contributes to the cost of medical care in workers compensation, and that this contribution is significant in magnitude. For instance, a recent study of workers compensation claims of Duke University employees shows that, for the morbidly obese, the medical costs per 100 full-time equivalent employees are nearly seven times as high as for employees of recommended weight. In the following study, the evidence of the contribution of obesity to the medical costs of workers compensation is generalized to a set of claims that comprises 36 U.S. States and nine injury years. Further, it is shown how the cost difference between "obese claims" and comparable "non-obese claims" develops as claims mature-this evidence of the difference in development offers important guidance for both reserving and ratemaking. The study is confined to the effect of obesity on severity-the effect of obesity on claim frequency is beyond the scope of this analysis.
Source:
2011 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
paper
Moderators:
William Murphy
Panelists:
Frank Schmid, Chris Laws
Keywords:
Reserving
Lessons Learned: Viewpoints on Increasing Analytical Capabilities in an Organization
The success or failure of modeling projects extends far beyond mastering the technical details. The panel will explore lessons learned from "real life" modeling and analytics projects across multiple lines of business and organizations.
The discussion will contrast "successful" and "unsuccessful" practices related to:
* Articulation of project goals
* Project planning
* Staffing
* Data preparation
* IT constraints
* Consultants / development partners
* Corporate culture / change management
Source:
2011 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Kelly Cusick
Panelists:
Claudine Modlin, Elizabeth Riczko
Workers Compensation-Selected State Issues
The panel will present key issues in the states of Texas and Louisiana. The Texas Department of Insurance and NCCI will discuss workers compensation ratemaking in Texas, including the particular role of each entity in the state. Louisiana topics to be addressed include the Louisiana Workers’ Compensation Act along with new legislation and initiatives—including implementation of medical guidelines.
Source:
2011 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Kelly Cusick
Panelists:
Elizabeth Buhro, Paul Buffone
Helping a Company Achieve Its Commercial Lines Underwriting Goals Through Predictive Analytics
The underwriting decision is the province of the underwriting department. Underwriters make their decisions based on a myriad of facts, data, analyses, business considerations, and experience. Often times there is a matrix of decision rules to guide the underwriter in making the final decision. During the decision-making process, intuition can play a big role for the underwriter. However, overreliance on intuition, legacy rules and judgmental overrides can lead to sub-optimal decision making. This presentation will make a case for integrating predictive models into the judgmental underwriting process, touching on topics such as cognitive decision traps often made within the realm of judgmental reasoning, the advantage of a statistical "feedback" loop, and the benefits of dimensionality reduction and decision consistency. The presentation will also highlight model development using case study examples and point out a few mistakes that can commonly occur during a modeling project as well as how to address them. Finally, an example of an underwriting decision scorecard with business rule overlays will be discussed.
Source:
2011 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Brian MacMahon
Panelists:
Gaetan Veilleux, Justin Brenden
Estimate Attrition using Survival Analysis
Effective marketing, underwriting, pricing, and customer service initiatives depend on an accurate understanding of the life time value of customers, for which policyholder retention is an essential component. In this session, panelists will survey useful data elements and discuss techniques for predicting retention. Treatment of the conventional logistic regression approach will focus on the potential pitfalls of modeling when one of the covariates is subject to change, such as in price elasticity modeling or other sensitivity analyses. Survival analysis, and two of its advantages over logistic regression for understanding attrition, will also be discussed: First, it models mid-term cancellation and end-of-term non-renewal separately and sequentially; Second, it dynamically analyzes when a policy will leave and how long it will stay. A real-life case study will follow to illustrate the technique.
Source:
2011 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Brian MacMahon
Panelists:
Hongyuan Wang
Beyond Auto and Homeowners: A Focus on Other Personal Lines Products
This session will focus on personal lines coverages other than auto and homeowners. The session will dive into a few specific personal lines products including motorcycle, boat and travel. For each product, the panelists will provide information on the rating plans, pricing methodologies, and other information specific to the product.
Source:
2011 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Christine Fleming
Panelists:
Klayton Southwood, Wasim Chowdhury
Predictive Modeling—What Can We Learn From Each Other?
Predictive modeling techniques have been used in pricing and underwriting for P&C for over a decade. Most life and health companies have not been using predictive modeling for pricing and/or underwriting for more than a few years, if at all. Presenters will show how predictive modeling is applied in each of their lines of business along with a comparison and contrast to the other lines.
Source:
2011 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Christine Fleming
Panelists:
Klayton Southwood, Jonathan Polon, David McLeroy
Predictive Modeling: Data Mining vs. Statistical Analysis
GLMs and other regression based statistical analysis methods have become a standard for ratemaking in many lines of business. Recently there has been much attention on data mining and machine learning tools in ratemaking as well. The message of how these two analytical approaches can work together to improve segmentation accuracy is not always clear. This session will begin with a high level overview of best practices for predictive models. The session will then explore how data mining can augment core predictive models in terms of whittling down unmanageable lists of explanatory variables, detecting interactions, and harnessing the information contained in model residuals in a very controlled manner that is suitable for implementation.
Source:
2011 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Richard Sherman
Panelists:
Claudine Modlin
Predictive Modeling and By-Peril Analysis for Homeowners Insurance
Homeowners insurance covers a multitude of perils. However, most of the traditional variables used to rate homeowners insurance, such as amount of insurance and construction class, are most appropriate for fire insurance. The session will show how to apply predictive modeling separately by peril. Independent variables will include the traditional rating variables along with external variables. In the models, the effect of the traditional variables will differ by peril. The session will also provide company insight on the development and implementation of by-peril rating.
Source:
2011 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
paper
Moderators:
Richard Sherman
Panelists:
A. Cummings, Cristina Gheorghe
Keywords:
Predictive Modeling, By-Peril Analysis for Homeowners Insurance
Implementing Valued Based Pricing – What and How People Buy
Mr. Baker will build upon his well received sessions on breaking commodity based thinking from the 2010 RPM Seminar. Developing an understanding of the nine factors of price sensitivity not only will assist actuaries in creating better models but provide a platform for management and product managers to identify new niches, better place insurance products, and begin to price customers and not policies.
Source:
2011 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Richard Sherman
Territorial Ratemaking
Territorial ratemaking (and highly dimensional predictors in general) has been an area of active actuarial research lately. Methods currently employed range from the traditional ones, such as one-way relativity analysis and GLMs, to the more modern ones, such as spatial smoothing and clustering. In essence, the newer approaches try to incorporate some domain knowledge in solving the problem, such as spatial adjacency or other similarity measures. In this session, panelists will compare and contrast these methods with some machine learning approaches based on a version of rule induction.
Source:
2011 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Richard Sherman
Panelists:
Eliade Micu
Multilevel Models, Credibility Theory and Ratemaking
The Multilevel/Hierarchical, a.k.a. "mixed effects," modeling framework is a powerful and intuitive generalization of the Generalized Linear Models framework that has become a cornerstone of much actuarial work. Yet it has received relatively scant attention in actuarial work. This is particularly surprising given the fact that the theory of multilevel/hierarchical models can be viewed as a generalization of Bühlmann's credibility theory. Multilevel modeling is applicable when one's data is naturally structured in groups (e.g., repeated observations for each policy, policies within territories and business classes, etc.) and one would like one's model coefficients to vary appropriately by group. This session will sketch some fundamental concepts of multilevel models, spell out the connection between multilevel modeling and credibility theory in some detail, and discuss some of the many practical applications of multilevel models in actuarial science. The presenter's point of view is that multilevel models provide a statistically consistent inferential method that unifies two pillars of actuarial modeling: Credibility theory and Generalized Linear Models. Case studies will be presented to illustrate both how to solve Buhlmann-Straub credibility models using a modern multilevel modeling package and also how to practically add multilevel structure to a GLM-based personal auto ratemaking exercise.
Source:
2011 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Sheri Scott
Panelists:
James Guszcza, Yanwei Zhang
