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STAY TUNED! If you are anticipating additional search filters by attribute and level to align with the CAS Capability Model, it is coming later this Summer. As the CAS begins to code recorded sessions by specific attributes and levels (starting with the 2023 Annual Meeting), these will be tagged in the CAS database of presentations going forward and should be searchable.
But you may use the Capability Model now to help you identify topics. For example, if you want to move up one level under the content area “Functional Expertise,” you may search topics in the particular functional area to expand your knowledge.
Recorded content is searchable by Capability Model attribute and level in the CAS Online Library.
Actuarial Risk Evaluation and Applications
How risk managers evaluate the risks at insurance companies? What roles and responsibilities actuaries can play in the risk evaluation processes? How current actuarial disciplines (standards, best practices, etc) can be applied to risk management activities?
For many decades, insurance regulators and rating agencies played primary roles in insurance risk evaluation. The increasing complexity of insurance business and un-diversifiable systemic risks of financial system call for comprehensive risk evaluation among insurance enterprises. Risk managers from insurance organizations may need to take the major responsibilities to give comprehensive, objective and independent opinions of their risk evaluations.
This session will introduce some recent work of an International Actuarial Association (IAA) project called "Comprehensive Actuarial Risk Evaluation (CARE)". The project working group has done some preliminary work to create a multi-dimensional risk evaluation framework for actuaries as well as pointing out uses and limitations of risk assessments. The goal is to have CARE be objective and independent in the assessment of the risks for the firm given the context, history, culture and the strategic positioning.
In addition, this session will have speakers from insurance industry to introduce their current or past experiences of risk evaluations.
Source:
2010 Annual Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Stephen DiCenso
Panelists:
Kevin Madigan, David Ingram, Linda Bjork
Keywords:
Actuarial Risk
Banking on Robbery: The Role of Fraud in the Financial Crisis
In his book, The Best Way to Rob a Bank is to Own One, William Black describes in detail the complex collusion between bankers, regulators, and legislators that brought about the Savings and Loan crisis of the 1980s and early 1990s. As part of the scheme, leverage was used to purchase bankrupt companies that became the basis for a Ponzi-like speculative bubble that ultimately collapsed. Deceptive accounting rules were used to hide the true state of the banks. Litigation and lobbyists were used to delay and frustrate timely enforcement, adding significantly to the taxpayer's bill. Since the bursting of the S&L bubble, a number of additional financial bubbles and debacles have occurred, including Enron, the Internet bubble, the subprime bubble, and the Madoff Ponzi scheme. The S&L crisis, where as a result of civil and criminal trials and federal agency investigations, many of the details have been documented, will serve as a model for later crises. This paper will describe how fraud and corruption played significant roles in these financial crises, including the current crisis that began in 2007 and is still unfolding.
Source:
2010 Annual Meeting
Type:
paper
Moderators:
Frank Schmid
Panelists:
Louise Francis, Neil Bodoff
ERM Through the Business Cycle
ERM was not a focus at the top of the business cycle, when record profits were being recorded. Many CROs now report that they gave clear warnings of impending problems -- which were completely ignored! Now everyone talks as if ERM is very important and will be forever after.
Over the past several years some firms went through the motions of creating an ERM function to appease regulators. Others had a much more conservative risk culture and avoided both the profits and the madness of the boom. At some firms, "doubling down" after a loss was the preferred risk strategy; a great trader -- a hero -- was someone who had the fortitude to keep doubling down until the trade made a profit. A few firms were doing full-fledged ERM with intensive modeling, and yet were surprised when they confronted circumstances their models characterized as 1 in 10,000 year losses.
This presentation will suggest a new/old theory that explains all of those stories with ideas borrowed from Cultural Anthropology - The Theory of Plural Rationalities. This approach helps to explain firms' risk strategies during different phases of the business cycle and perhaps indicates some drivers of the cycle itself. It will also provide an explanation of how the statement "actuaries have always been doing ERM" can be true at the same time as the statement that "ERM is a very new idea that has not been used yet in most firms." Finally, using these ideas, we will suggest a new approach to risk management through the business cycle that some ERM purists may hate, but the pragmatists in the audience might just love.
Source:
2010 Annual Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Frank Schmid
Panelists:
David Ingram
Keywords:
ERM
Workers' Compensation Current Issues Update
In this overview of the current state of the workers compensation line, panelists will review financial results and recent trends as well as discuss where the WC line might be headed.
Source:
2010 Annual Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Peter Wu
Panelists:
Nancy Treitel-Moore
Keywords:
Workers' Compensation, financial
Ratemaking Survey results from the Joint CAS/Faculty and Institute of Actuaries Working Parties
Earlier in the year, working parties of the Casualty Actuarial Society, the Institute of Actuaries and the Institute of Actuaries of Australia hosted a global property/casualty ratemaking survey. The goal of the survey was to explore both common and regional ratemaking practices. The results of the survey will be presented and discussed at the CAS Annual meeting.
Source:
2010 Annual Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Peter Wu
Panelists:
James Tanser
Keywords:
Ratemaking survey
Tail Risk, Systematic Risk and Copulas
Copulas are an elegant mathematical tool for decoupling a joint distribution into the marginal component and the dependence structure component; thus enabling us to model simultaneous events with a greater degree of flexibility. However, as with many statistical techniques, the application of copulas in practice is as much art as it is science. And risk management considerations, such as the increased focus on tail events over central moments, should drive selections of copulas just as much as statistical goodness-of-fit analysis. This presentation covers several practical aspects of copula calibration. The focus will be on appropriately allowing for tail risk and systemic risk through correct copula selection and parameterization.
Source:
2010 Annual Meeting
Type:
paper
Moderators:
Ronald Zaleski
Panelists:
Kyle Mrotek, Mike Schmitz, Andy Staudt
Workers Compensation - The Post-Healthcare Reform Impact
Workers Compensation (WC) is greatly influenced by the macroeconomic forces affecting the medical landscape of our economy. All constituents (i.e. providers, payers, consumers, etc.) have had to contend with increased prices and utilization of medical services, and WC will continue to bear the brunt of cost-shifting as more change occurs, some of which will be due to recent (and potentially other) healthcare reforms.
This session will provide perspectives on WC medical cost trends from both a macro and micro perspective from two leading experts in the WC and healthcare industry. The moderator will provide background on some of the key areas where the recent national healthcare reform bill and other legislative and regulatory initiatives will have on WC, and then our two guest speakers will prognosticate what the future may bring. Each speaker will address the debates between all constituents on issues such as providers facing declining reimbursement from Medicare and Medicaid, increasing hospital costs, changes in the area of specialist and ancillary care, changes in FDA approved drugs, use of medical information, and others. We will delve into how our largest state, California, is addressing the impact of prior WC reforms and current WC cost drivers in a public policy context.
WC actuaries will benefit from learning more about the underlying fundamentals of our healthcare delivery system, how healthcare reform will impact WC, and what they can do to prepare for the coming changes.
Source:
2010 Annual Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Pierre-Alexandre Jalbert
Panelists:
Alex Swedlow, Joseph Paduda
Keywords:
Workers Compensation
The Secret Language of Influence - Your Passport to Powerful Persuasion
GOT INFLUENCE? How well do your words and phrases motivate (or de-motivate) others? Language training is the most neglected area of any management, leadership or business development program. Recent research from the world of psychology can help us increase the potency of our conversations. Useful for leading, managing and most critically, motivating others. This fun, interactive program will leave you wiser in your role as an executive, leader and manager and (most importantly) within your personal relationships.
* Introduction to persuasive language patterns - how psychologists and linguists define influential language
* Discover how to distinguish whether you should influence using "pain" or "gain." Attendees will recognize how the other person is motivated either to attain goals or to solve problems. Each type of individual requires different dialogues to motivate them to action.
* Identify whether you should offer evidence, testimonials or peer pressure to motivate specific individuals. Conversely, others make decisions based on their own beliefs and experiences and will not be influenced by endorsements, awards or accomplishments of yourself or your company. Uncover how you can influence each of these two distinct personalities.
* There are five language patterns (you probably use regularly) that undermine influence. Master persuasion skills by raising awareness of words and phrases that can hurt your ability to communicate potently with employees, peers, buyers and personal relationships.
* Wrap-up, call to action for newer, better language skills.
Source:
2010 Annual Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Panelists:
Dan Seidman
CAS Examination Process
The examination process continues to be of great interest to CAS members and candidates. In addition to continuing to refine the process of writing and grading exams in order to more appropriately identify the qualified candidates, the Examination Committee has also been preparing to implement the new 2011 education and examination structure. In this session, members of the Syllabus and Exam Committees will discuss what's changing, what isn't and how the two committees have been working together to enhance the admissions process for candidates and for the CAS. Time will be allowed for questions.
Source:
2010 Annual Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Pierre-Alexandre Jalbert
Panelists:
Rajesh Sahasrabuddhe, Geoffrey Werner, William Wilder
Keywords:
examination process
Blending Loss Development Patterns with Hierarchical Models
Statistical models have been used to fit development patterns to single loss development triangles and, in some cases, to two triangles simultaneously (paid and incurred triangles for the same set of losses). This session presents current research on the next step in this theory: applying Bayesian hierarchical models to multiple loss development triangles. Hierarchical modeling captures the core insight of credibility theory, enabling the analyst to improve statistical estimates through the use of collateral data. Bayesian modeling offers the further advantages of conceptual clarity, enabling background knowledge to be integrated into the analysis via prior probabilities, and the ability to easily calculate credible intervals using posterior probabilities. The session will contain an accessible, high-level overview of Bayesian modeling as well as an outline of the Bayesian hierarchical model explored here. Much of the session will be devoted to a practical case study using Schedule P data to model Workers Compensation loss development patterns for several companies simultaneously. For example, this enables the analyst to estimate outstanding losses for the company of interest in a way that "borrows strength" from other companies' data. The modeled loss development pattern for each company is a blend, based on Bayesian theory, of the pattern of that company's own data with that of the industry average. Estimates of reserve variability resulting from the Bayesian hierarchical model will also be presented and discussed.
Source:
2010 Annual Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Pierre-Alexandre Jalbert
Panelists:
James Guszcza, Wayne Zhang
Keywords:
Loss Development Patterns, Hierarchical Models
Credit-Based Insurance Scores: A Roundtable Discussion
The debate around credit-based insurance scores has continued in many different forums, including the press, state and federal legislatures, and electronic media. There are a number of stakeholders in the debate, which include providers of insurance credit score information, insurance companies, consumers, and regulators. These diverse stakeholders raise many issues in the arguments for and against the use of credit-based insurance scores. Oftentimes, discussion forums on this topic do not facilitate open dialogue on the issues and focus more on getting one point of view across.
This general session will provide a forum for open dialogue on the issues surrounding the use of credit-based insurance scores from several different perspectives. The issues to be discussed will include:
* Benefits of insurance scoring
* The effects of the economic environment on insurance scoring
* The role of the state and federal government in regulating insurers' use of credit scoring
* Race/income bias of insurance scoring
* Education of consumers
* Practical implications of the use of insurance score
Source:
2010 Annual Meeting
Type:
general
Moderators:
Lawrence Vitale
Panelists:
Chet Wiermanski, David Snyder, Scott Richardson
Climate Change Liability - An Emerging Risk
Whether one believes, as a matter of science, the problem of climate change is real or imagined, exaggerated or understated, the legal storm has already broken and presents real risks and real benefits that cannot be prudently ignored. Join this panel of experts to explore recent case law on climate change liability and learn why greenhouse gas emitting businesses might want to consider insurance coverage to protect themselves against this risk.
Source:
2010 Annual Meeting
Type:
general
Moderators:
Lawrence Vitale
Panelists:
Richard Faulk, Lindene Patton
Workers Compensation Research Topics
Frank Schmid will present the methodology and results of a recent study of the impact of obesity on workers' compensation loss development. Katy Porter will present her research on Trends in Temporary Total Disability Duration.
Source:
2010 Annual Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Lawrence Vitale
Panelists:
Frank Schmid, Katherine Porter
Keywords:
Workers Compensation
Ask Your Leaders
Ask your leaders questions and provide them input on issues important to you.
This session would allow the CAS members in the audience to ask questions of and to dialog with the current CAS leadership. There is no formal agenda. The intent is to increase communication between CAS membership and its current leaders, particularly with regard to current issues. (The panel will be speaking as individuals and not as official spokespeople of the Board or EC.)
Source:
2010 Annual Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Panelists:
John Kollar, Ralph Blanchard, Roger Hayne
Solvency and Accounting Update
The session will give an update of the NAIC's Solvency Modernization Initiative and the AAA's involvement in responding to the NAIC proposals. The session will also provide a summary of the results of the CAS' Accounting Changes Task Force Modeling Subcommittee around the IASB and FASB proposals for accounting for insurance contracts.
Source:
2010 Annual Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
John Gibson
Panelists:
Nicholas Pastor, Kris DeFrain, Henry Siegel
Keywords:
Solvency Modernization Initiative, Accounting Changes
Business Interruption
Business interruption insurance (BII) - The BP oil spill, Iceland's volcanic ash, and recent flooding in TN are recent disasters that can shut down or disrupt businesses. Would each of these events be covered under BII? Panelists will discuss this topic from engineering, insurance brokerage, and attorney perspectives. The presentation will help actuaries understand customers' needs, gain an appreciation for the risks involved, and make better-informed pricing decisions.
This session includes general information intended for all actuaries, or geared towards those with experience in BII.
Source:
2010 Annual Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Jessica Leong
Panelists:
Daina Kojelis, Jeffrey Stump
Keywords:
Business Interruption
Rapidly Building The Business Case For Data Quality Improvement
Poor data quality hampers business success by casting doubt on the data feeding both operational and analytical activities. The absence of metrics linking business impacts to data issues impedes the development of the appropriate business case for introducing data quality improvement. Because data issues contribute to operational inefficiencies, missed opportunities, and exposure to risk, there is a need for techniques to quickly identify high priority data issues and objectively evaluate the relationship between those issues and business productivity.
This presentation describes a process through which an organization can, using proper planning, tools, and expertise, identify high visibility data issues and characterize related business impacts. Simultaneously, opportunities for improvement can be identified, providing an ability to objectively review organizational data, determine whether the levels of data quality are sufficient to meet business expectations, and if not, evaluate the value proposition and feasibility of specific data quality improvements.
This rapid data quality assessment, performed in as few as three weeks, combines top-down and bottom-up approaches to evaluating specific data sets to both engage business data consumers and immediately identify opportunities for improvement. We also describe case studies from the insurance and financial services sectors.
Source:
2010 Annual Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
David Heppen
Panelists:
David Loshin
Keywords:
Data Quality
Robustifying Reserving
Robust statistical procedures have a growing body of literature and in actuarial applications have been applied in loss severity fitting. Here an introduction of robust methods is made for loss reserving. In particular, following Tampubolon (2008), reserve models for a development triangle are compared based on the sensitivity of the reserve estimates to changes in individual data points. This is then related to the generalized degrees of freedom used by the model at each point.
Source:
2010 Annual Meeting
Type:
paper
Panelists:
Gary Venter, Dumaria Tampubolon
Bootstrap Estimation of the Predictive Distributions of Reserves Using Paid and Incurred Claims
This paper presents a bootstrap approach to estimate the prediction distributions of reserves produced by the Munich chain ladder (MCL) model. The MCL model was introduced by Quarg and Mack (2004) and takes into account both paid and incurred claims information. In order to produce bootstrap distributions, this paper addresses the application of bootstrapping methods to dependent data, with the consequence that correlations are considered. Numerical examples are provided to illustrate the algorithm and the prediction errors are compared for the new bootstrapping method applied to MCL and a more standard bootstrapping method applied to the chain-ladder technique.
Source:
2010 Annual Meeting
Type:
paper
Panelists:
Richard Verrall, Huijuan Liu
Financial Crisis - Update on its Impact and What Lies Ahead
The Financial Crisis had a significant impact on the insurance results and how the property/casualty insurance industry views investment risks. Our panelists will discuss the following points:
1. To what extent has the industry recovered? Which risks are still present?
2. Has the industry changed its behavior?
3. What will be the impact of the Financial Bill?
Source:
2010 Annual Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
David Heppen
Panelists:
David Flandro, Thomas Rogers
Keywords:
Financial Crisis, property/casualty insurance
Usage Based Insurance - An Update on the Legal and Regulatory Environment
In June, the U.S. Supreme Court upheld the Bilski Decision, thus limiting the application of business process patents. This and recent law suits have ramifications on some of the patents sought for usage-based insurance. This session will provide an update on the current climate for proliferation of usage-based insurance products and the viewpoints of several regulators on the US regulatory environment. The discussion will follow a round table format with considerable opportunity for Q&A from the audience.
Source:
2010 Annual Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
David Heppen
Panelists:
Cara Blank, Anne Kelly
Keywords:
Usage Based Insurance, Regulatory Environment
Finding the Right Synergy from GLMs and Machine Learning
GLMs have become a standard for ratemaking in many lines of business. Recently there has been much attention on machine learning tools in ratemaking as well. The message of how these two analytical approaches can work together to improve segmentation accuracy is not always clear. This session will begin with a high level overview of best practices in GLMs. We will also introduce a new development to detect and simplify interactions within a GLM. The session will then explore how machine learning can augment GLMs in terms of whittling down unmanageable lists of explanatory variables, detecting interactions, and harnessing the information contained in model residuals in a very controlled manner that is suitable for implementation.
Source:
2010 Annual Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
David Heppen
Panelists:
Kristi Badgerow
Keywords:
GLMs
Stochastic Loss Reserving - the Good, the Bad and the Ugly: Retrospective Tests for Stochastic Loss Reserve Formulas
The output of a stochastic loss reserve formulas is a predictive distribution of outcomes. This session will describe how to test the predictive distribution of a loss reserve formula against the actual outcomes as reported in Schedule P of the NAIC Annual Statement. The tests will be applied to several stochastic loss reserve formulas from the outcomes of several insurers for the Personal Auto and the Commercial Auto lines of business.
Source:
2010 Annual Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
David Heppen
Panelists:
Jessica Leong, Peng Shi
Keywords:
Stochastic Loss Reserving, Retrospective Tests for Stochastic Loss Reserve Formulas
Business Intelligence Concepts For The Sophisticated Actuary
Business Intelligence is all the rage in today's fast paced information technology world. Business Intelligence is not the oxymoron. Business Intelligence is central to the ways that actuaries can effectively communicate information and data to their business partners. This presentation will focus on the concepts that encompass Business Intelligence and how the actuary can take advantage of this information delivery process. A look at how Business Intelligence is used in a multi-line property casualty insurer to raise performance will be presented and discussed. The impact of Business Intelligence concepts of dashboards and scorecards will be part of the presentation. The presentation will also provide insight on how business Intelligence concepts work with the data warehouse concepts and how both of these concepts fit into a master data management program at a insurer. As a result of attending this presentation actuaries will be able to converse magnificently with their business and information technology partners at corporate retreats to make sure that their employers are spending their information technology dollars wisely with regards to Business Intelligence.
Source:
2010 Annual Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
David Heppen
Panelists:
Mark Allaben
Speed Networking
This interactive session will provide attendees with an opportunity to polish their networking skills and interact with numerous peers. Similar to speed dating, speed networking requires participants to pair up and network with each other in short intervals. During this time, attendees will have a chance to exchange business cards, share knowledge and insights on current market trends, and perfect their networking abilities in a non-intimidating environment. Before the actual networking takes place the moderator will discuss the importance of networking skills, provide tips and advice, address common networking fears and explain the speed networking interactive exercise. At the conclusion the moderator will answer any questions and attendees can provide feedback on various networking techniques.
Source:
2010 Annual Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Panelists:
Margaret Milkint
Keywords:
Speed Networking
