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STAY TUNED! If you are anticipating additional search filters by attribute and level to align with the CAS Capability Model, it is coming later this Summer. As the CAS begins to code recorded sessions by specific attributes and levels (starting with the 2023 Annual Meeting), these will be tagged in the CAS database of presentations going forward and should be searchable.
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STAY TUNED! If you are anticipating additional search filters by attribute and level to align with the CAS Capability Model, it is coming later this Summer. As the CAS begins to code recorded sessions by specific attributes and levels (starting with the 2023 Annual Meeting), these will be tagged in the CAS database of presentations going forward and should be searchable.
But you may use the Capability Model now to help you identify topics. For example, if you want to move up one level under the content area “Functional Expertise,” you may search topics in the particular functional area to expand your knowledge.
Recorded content is searchable by Capability Model attribute and level in the CAS Online Library.
Mock Trial - Guilty or not Guilty
In this session, a jury of actuarial peers will determine the guilt or innocence of an actuarial colleague. The session will review the relevant ASOPs in terms of a mock trial with a vote at the end.
Source:
2010 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Anthony Bustillo
Panelists:
Wendy Germani, Jason Russ, Thomas McIntyre, Mary Eaton, Chad Wischmeyer
Intermediate Track II - Investigating and Detecting Change
This session will explore a variety of techniques to detect and address changes in mix of business, claim closing patterns, and case reserve adequacy. When changes in history are verified through discussion with claim, underwriting, reinsurance, and field staff, the actuary can pick the right tool for the job. Adjustments of loss reserve methodologies to account for each situation will also be discussed.
Source:
2010 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Gerald Yeung
Panelists:
Lawrence White, David Vogt
Luncheon with Speaker Mary Eaton: Attorneys Who Defend Actuaries
Ms. Eaton is the author of "Storm Warnings Revisited: The Statute of Limitations In Private Securities Fraud Actions" (Securities Litigation Report, February 2009), and the co-author of numerous other articles concerning securities and other business law issues, including "Delaware Chancery Court Refuses To Hold Citigroup's Directors Personally Liable For Failing To Monitor Risks Associated With Citigroup's Subprime Exposure" (The Metropolitan Corporate Counsel, May 2009), "Eighth Circuit Amends Standard For Review Of Mutual Fund Advisory Fees" (The Metropolitan Corporate Counsel, June 2009), and "Sonia Sotomayor's Securities Law Opinions - What President Obama's Supreme Court Nominee Might Mean For Private Securities Litigation" (securitiesdocket.com, June 10, 2009). Ms. Eaton is also a member of the Association of the Bar of the City of New York, the Federal Bar Council and the National Association of Women Lawyers.
Source:
2010 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
keynote
Panelists:
Mary Eaton
The FASB/IASB Insurance Contracts Project
The Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) and the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) are working on numerous joint projects, one of which, a project on Insurance Contracts. This project has the potential of changing the reporting in the near future of insurance products for both U.S. GAAP and IFRS reporting. Among some of the changes, property and casualty insurance companies may expected to include loss reserves that will be discounted and include a margin for uncertainty, a new presentation in regards to the income statement, and far more extensive financial statement disclosures.
The IASB recently issued an exposure draft that reflects several years of efforts on this project, and the FASB will be issuing a discussion paper on the same topic. This session will begin with a historical perspective on the Insurance Contracts project, provide a summary of the key decisions and views reached by the FASB and IASB thus far, and explain the perspectives of the FASB and IASB board members and project teams that worked to shape the views expressed in the IASB's exposure draft and the FASB's discussion paper.
Source:
2010 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
general
Moderators:
Hazel Luckey
Panelists:
Akwasi Ampofo
Introduction to Solvency II
Source:
2010 Regional Affiliate - CSAF
Type:
affiliate
Keywords:
Solvency II
An Update on IFRS
International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS): A discussion of the latest information on the convergence of international and U.S. financial reporting standards. Specific topics addressed will be the key developments relating to the joint International Accounting Standard Bureau (IASB) and the U.S. Financial Accounting Standards Bureau (FASB) Insurance Contracts project. The emphasis of the session will be on how and when changes may affect the work actuaries do in the U.S. While much of the presentation will relate to insurance companies, the session will also address changes affecting the financial reporting of self-insured entities under IFRS as well.
Source:
2010 Regional Affiliate - CSAF
Type:
affiliate
Keywords:
International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS), financial reporting
P/C Insurance Industry Trends: Economic and Other Challenges in the Years Ahead
With record-setting catastrophe losses, a capital market meltdown, the steepest recession since the 1930s, the prospect of significant new layers of regulation, a shrinking exposure base, and many other challenges, the property-casualty insurance industry has had a tough past decade. The presentation will discuss relevant economic, industry, and other relevant trends that might indicate what challenges the next few years might bring.
Source:
2010 Regional Affiliate - CSAF
Type:
affiliate
Panelists:
Steven Weisbart
Keywords:
capital market meltdown
Rules of the Road for Actuaries
The DMV periodically tests your knowledge of the Rules of the Road to promote safe driving, but how well would you do if tested on the actuarial "Rules of the Road"? This session will refresh your understanding of the Code of Professional Conduct and identify the key Actuarial Standards of Practice applicable to property/casualty work. The overview of the Code and ASOPs will be followed by several case studies, where you will be able to put your professionalism skills to the test in tackling real life ethical dilemmas.
Source:
2010 Regional Affiliate - CSAF
Type:
affiliate
Panelists:
Kevin Dyke
Keywords:
Code of Professional Conduct, Actuarial Standards of Practice
Current CAS Issues and Directions
This session will provide an overview of the current issues the CAS Board has recently addressed, including changes to the basic education system, the new continuing education requirements, proposed constitution and bylaw changes and the International CERA treaty and designation. Ample time will be allotted for questions from members and candidates.
Source:
2010 Regional Affiliate - CSAF
Type:
affiliate
Panelists:
Arlie Proctor
Keywords:
CERA
University Presentation: Copula Regression
Regression analysis is one of the most commonly used statistical methods. But in its basic form (ordinary least squares (OLS)) it is not suitable for actuarial applications because the relationships are often non-linear and the probability distributions are non-normal. One approach that has been successful in overcoming these challenges is the generalized linear model (GLM), which requires that the dependent variable have a distribution from the exponential family. In this paper, we present copula regression as an alternative to OLS and GLM. The major advantage of a copula regression is that there are no restrictions on the probability distributions that can be used. In this paper, we will present the formulas and algorithms necessary for conducting a copula regression analysis using the normal copula.
Source:
2010 Regional Affiliate - CSAF
Type:
affiliate
Keywords:
Regression analysis, Copula Regression, non-linear distributions, probability distributions
The Fundamentals of Reserve Variability: From Methods to Models
We will discuss the differences between using a variety of deterministic methods to calculate a range versus using stochastic models to calculate a distribution. Current standards of practice refer to "best estimates" but the industry is actively pursuing the use of distributions and some countries, such as Australia, already require reserves to be set using a percentile of the distribution. We will briefly discuss some considerations related to our evolving standards of practice, but the primary focus will be practical aspects of using stochastic distributions and the criterion the practicing actuary can use to help evaluate stochastic models in their search for the models that best fit the data.
Source:
2010 Regional Affiliate - CSAF
Type:
affiliate
Panelists:
Mark Shapland
Keywords:
Fundamentals of Reserve Variability
Capital Allocation by Percentile Layer
Mario DiCaro, Author of "Capital Allocation by Percentile Layer", recently published in Variance, will provide details on his methodology and thoughts on several capital allocation questions:
* Why calculate aggregate risk capital?
* What data do we need?
* What do the models look like?
* How to calculate aggregate risk capital
* Why allocate capital?
* How to calculate allocations (methods and meanings)
Source:
2010 Regional Affiliate - CSAF
Type:
affiliate
Panelists:
Mario DiCaro
Keywords:
Capital Allocation
Inflation Risk and the Property/Casualty Industry
The inflationary environment in the U.S. has been relatively benign since the early 1980s. However, many see leading indicators in the economy that raise the specter of increased risk of inflation in the future. This session will discuss the economic background and potential risks. A look back to the inflationary periods of the 1970s and early 1980s will be reviewed, and the implications regarding risk to current property/casualty insurance balance sheets and income statements. Actuarial approaches to deal with inflation risk will be discussed, as well as overall hedges companies can consider if they consider the risk of inflation to be a serious threat.
Source:
2010 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Hazel Luckey
Panelists:
Thomas Lee, Daniel North
Statistical Weights on Reserve Estimates
Panelists will demonstrate an objective methodology for calculating weights that can be assigned to reserve methods in the process of combining various estimates to arrive at a single estimate. The optimization process minimizes the out-of sample, mean-square projection error under three constraints: (1) all the weights must be non-negative, (2) the sum of the weights must be one, and (3) the weights on the Bornhuetter-Ferguson (B-F) estimates must decrease as the volume of historical data increases. A case study will show the details of numerical computations.
Later in the session, panelists will show a method for applying weights to different reserve estimates based on the uncertainty surrounding each individual estimate, as well as the correlation between the estimates, with a goal of minimizing the uncertainty around the combined estimate. A number of real-life examples will be shown, illustrating diff erences between the resulting weightings, and providing intuitive explanations of why such weightings are appropriate, as well as why some currently common practices should be avoided.
Source:
2010 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Hazel Luckey
Panelists:
Christopher Gross, Luyang Fu, Tiger Wei
Extreme Events: Statistical Extreme Value Theory and its Applications
Extreme value theory* seems to be rarely used or discussed by actuaries. It is specifically applicable to rare events, potential maximum values, and tail values, and is distribution-free. Actuaries who majored in math were probably briefly exposed to this theory. This session will provide a refresh of the math, and discuss its applications to insurance and related risks. In particular, it provides useful and intuitively meaningful guidance to escaping the trap of using limited data to predict future extreme risks.
*This does not concern the Extreme Value Theorem in Calculus, which applies to closed sets.
Source:
2010 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Hazel Luckey
Panelists:
Robert Bear, Frederick Ryan
Economic Capital and Risk Appetite for P/C Insurers
The panel will review two foundation elements of an insurer's risk and capital management program, economic capital, and risk appetite. Beginning with a review economic capital analysis of P/C insurers, we will provide a brief introduction to the analysis of overall capital adequacy of an insurer. The discussion will include a review of capital allocation and common uses of economic capital analysis for P/C insurance companies, including monitoring risk positions within a risk appetite framework. The second half of the program will include a review of risk appetite processes and their connection to economic capital analysis, with an emphasis on less remote (not tail) events.
Source:
2010 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Hazel Luckey
Panelists:
Joseph Lebens
Bootstrap Modeling: Beyond the Basics
This paper outlines the modifications to the basic bootstrap algorithm that are required in order to put the bootstrap model into practical everyday use. For example, how can it be modified to deal with negative development, residuals that are not identically distributed and missing values? How can the results be correlated and what diagnostics can be used to improve the fit of the model?
Source:
2010 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
paper
Panelists:
Mark Shapland, Jessica Leong
Keywords:
Bootstrap Modeling
Workers' Compensation: What About Frequency?
Trend considerations, with respect to exposure and loss cost are vital to several methodologies used in loss reserving. This session will examine how the recognition of trends impact the indications produced by some of these methodologies (Bornhuetter-Ferguson, etc.).
Sources for trend, implicit in the data or culled from external resources, will be discussed. Commonly used external resources, such as the Masterson indexes and the Bureau of Labor Statistics, will be presented and evaluated, as well as some not as commonly used by the workers compensation actuary. The evaluation of changing environmental factors, such as economic conditions and legislative reform (including health care reform), on trend will be examined.
A focus of the session will be the common use of severity trend without consideration of frequency trend, especially when external sources are utilized.
Source:
2010 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Hazel Luckey
Panelists:
Arthur Cohen, Ian Sterling
Regulatory Approaches to Reserving in a Captive
This panel discussion will focus on the domicile regulatory approach to reserving in a captive, from a U.S. and off shore perspective, including annual requirements by line of coverage, view of regulators, actuarial resources (use local or same as parent auditor), costs, etc.
Source:
2010 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Hazel Luckey
Panelists:
Susan Pino, Paul Smith
Current Developments Regarding Tax Issues Pertinent to P&C Actuaries
In November 2009, the IRS issued a coordinated issue paper (CIP) on "margins or other unsubstantiated" additions to reserves for unpaid losses. Although CIPs are not official pronouncements, they identify and address industry-wide issues that the IRS deems signifi cant, give some insight into the IRS's current thinking, and guide field examiners on how to treat the issue in examinations. The CIP directs field examiners to consider both explicit adjustments as well as implicit conservatism to actuarially determine amounts.
This session will summarize the CIP's conclusions as well as the basis for those conclusions. In addition, this session will discuss recent cases where the views and positions expressed in the CIP were addressed in court. Further considerations will be presented as to how a company's reserves could be developed and documented in a manner that would reduce their exposure to a tax adjustment.
Source:
2010 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Hazel Luckey
Panelists:
Addison Shuster
Are You Properly Calculating Your Ceded Reinsurance Loss Reserves?
Often actuaries spend an enormous amount of time and effort calculating direct and gross unpaid loss liabilities only to hurry through evaluating the effect of ceded reinsurance on the net liabilities. This session will explore various alternatives for calculating ceded loss reserves and the strengths and weaknesses of these methods depending upon the reinsurance structure (quota share, excess of loss, etc.). The presenters will highlight common pitfalls that actuaries should avoid in deriving an accurate ceded loss liability estimate and how ceded loss reserves may differ under new accounting schemes relating to the convergence of FASB and IASB.
Source:
2010 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Aleeza Serafin
Panelists:
Gregory Chrin
A User's Guide to Writing a Good Actuarial Report
Are your actuarial reports written such that another actuary practicing in the same field could evaluate the work? Do your reports show the analysis from the basic data to the conclusions? Do the narratives clearly describe the business and the analyses performed? Do they adhere to relevant ASOPs? They should! Come see an outline of a good actuarial report and see what should be included in the report. Learn how your reports stack up to others in regards to materiality standards, ranges, reconciliations, disclosure, etc. Hear perspectives from regulators and consultants alike.
Source:
2010 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Aleeza Serafin
Panelists:
Joseph Herbers, Mary Miller
The Actuarial Disciplinary Process
In this session, we will explore the complementary roles of the ABCD and CAS Disciplinary Committee. This session will include case studies with a review of several actuarial standards of practices and current proposals for changes to the CAS disciplinary process.
Source:
2010 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Joshua Fishman
Panelists:
Orin Linden
Optimal Layer for Cat Reinsurance
The P&C insurance industry suffered great catastrophe losses in recent years. Catastrophe reinsurance is one of the tools that an insurance company uses to mitigate its Cat risk. Reinsurance comes at a cost and therefore it is important to maintain a balance between the perceived benefit of risk reduction and its cost. This case study presents a methodology for determining the optimal catastrophe reinsurance layer by maximizing the risk-adjusted underwriting profit within a classical mean-variance framework. From the perspective of enterprise risk management, this study improves the existing literature in two ways. First, it considers catastrophe and non-catastrophe losses simultaneously. Previous studies focused on catastrophe losses only. Second, risk is measured by lower partial moment, which we believe is a more reasonable and flexible measure of risk compared to the traditional variance and VaR/TVaR approaches.
Source:
2010 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Joshua Fishman
Panelists:
Luyang Fu
D&O .... What's Next
Our global economy has been impacted by the ramifi cations of the ongoing credit crisis. Leading mortgage lenders, major investment banks, and real estate development companies are but a few of the types of organizations that have felt the brunt of this crisis. The Federal Reserve has taken repeated actions to mitigate the impact on the economy. And individuals have lost their jobs and found it nearly impossible to obtain mortgages as a result of this crisis.
During this discussion, panelists will explore some of the issues that the insurance industry is facing with regard to the credit crisis, particularly as the industry attempts to better understand and quantify the exposure.
Specifically, panelists will discuss the impact that the industry must deal with as a result of an increase in class action lawsuits. Our panel will also delve into the methods, obstacles, and estimates on D&O and discuss the reserving aspects stemming from these issues.
Source:
2010 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Joshua Fishman
Panelists:
Athula Alwis, Randy Hein
