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STAY TUNED! If you are anticipating additional search filters by attribute and level to align with the CAS Capability Model, it is coming later this Summer. As the CAS begins to code recorded sessions by specific attributes and levels (starting with the 2023 Annual Meeting), these will be tagged in the CAS database of presentations going forward and should be searchable.
But you may use the Capability Model now to help you identify topics. For example, if you want to move up one level under the content area “Functional Expertise,” you may search topics in the particular functional area to expand your knowledge.
Recorded content is searchable by Capability Model attribute and level in the CAS Online Library.
Wolfram Mathematica - A flexible, well integrated environment for computing, developing, presenting, and deployment of P&C Actuarial Solutions
Source:
2010 Regional Affiliate - CADS
Type:
affiliate
Panelists:
Stephanie Harpst
Keywords:
Property and Casualty, Actuarial Solutions
The Fundamentals of Reserve Variability: From Methods to Models
Source:
2010 Regional Affiliate - CADS
Type:
affiliate
Panelists:
Mark Shapland
Keywords:
Reserve Variability
U.S. Seismic Hazard – A New View
The USGS released revised seismic hazard maps for the lower 48 states in early 2008, incorporating new data on active faults, updates to regional earthquake catalogs, revisions to attenuation relationships and changes in general methodology. The new maps indicate numerous changes from the prior 2002 study, particularly for California and the West, which have downstream consequences for commercial earthquake models used to estimate insured losses. In this session, panelists from catastrophe modeling companies will discuss the impact of those changes on earthquake models and the new perspectives on risk that result.
Source:
2010 Spring Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Daniel Greer
Panelists:
David Lalonde, Kate Stillwell, Don Windeler
Management Strategies and Dynamic Financial Analysis
Dynamic financial analysis (DFA) has become an important tool in analyzing the financial condition of insurance companies. Constant development and documentation of DFA tools has occurred during recent years. However, several questions concerning the implementation of DFA systems have not yet been answered in the DFA literature. One such important issue is the consideration of management strategies in the DFA context. The aim of this paper is to study the effects of different management strategies on a nonlife insurer's risk and return profile. Therefore, we develop several management strategies and test them numerically within a DFA simulation study.
Source:
2010 Spring Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Daniel Greer
Panelists:
Martin Eling, Hato Schmeiser
Solvency II and You
This session will discuss the latest developments in Solvency II and how it will change what actuaries are doing world-wide. Panelists will highlight reasons why U.S. actuaries should pay attention now.
Source:
2010 Spring Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Daniel Greer
Panelists:
Kathryn Morgan, Kendra Felisky
Risk Margins: Impacts to Pricing and Profitability
Risk margins are a topic of interest in the actuarial world due to international regulatory developments, such as IFRS and Solvency II, and heightened attention to uncertainty measurement and disclosure resulting from the recent financial crisis. Much of the discussion to date has been from the point of view of impacts to accounting frameworks and solvency monitoring. However, the inclusion of explicit risk margins in insurance liability valuation creates implications for pricing decisions and profitability measures. In this session, we will highlight some of the key considerations for pricing and profitability resulting from the inclusion of explicit risk margins in insurance company financials. We will also explore how these considerations may differ by line of business. As this is an emerging issue, we hope the discussion will encourage lively debate.
Source:
2010 Spring Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Simon Buxton
Panelists:
Glenn Meyers, Robert Miccolis
Marrying Underwriter Intuition and Predictive Analytics – A Workers’ Compensation Perspective
As Predictive Analytics and GLM increase in popularity there is an increasing challenge associated with optimizing the acceptance and integration of these new techniques into sound underwriting processes and decision making structures. All too often these new tools are met by underwriters with the same skepticism as any other challenge to their established intuitive norms for risk selection.
This presentation will discuss how both actuaries and underwriters can engage each other in cooperative ways through predictive analytic endeavors to both sharpen the underwriters’ intuition and skill at risk selection and increase the real-world business case perspective of the predictive modeler. It will explore why no predictive model can be sustained in a vacuum as well as why no underwriter should address any predictive modeling project with anything less than a strong enthusiasm for the insights that can be garnered through the process. Finally, the presentation will give examples of how predictive models can help to mitigate some standard intuitive underwriting decision traps and how an underwriters intuition into the daily use cases for a predictive model can help stave off degradation of model stability.
Source:
2010 Spring Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Joseph Izzo
Panelists:
Joel Appelbaum, Ken Schroeder
Using Predictive Analytics to Understand Your Claims Process
There are numerous applications of predictive modeling to the claims function. This session will discuss how predictive analytics has been used to understand and enhance the claims process. Applications that will be discussed include:
* Estimating claim settlement values,
* Estimating the impact of law changes on claim values,
* Developing claims early warning systems,
* Using internal company information to identify potentially fraudulent claims and
* Managing the claims process
Examples and case studies will be shown to enhance the understanding of the practical challenges of not only modeling the claims process, but assembling data and developing implementation plans for claims analytics.
Source:
2010 Spring Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Joseph Izzo
Panelists:
Stephen Swenson
Umbrella: A Primary Insurer & Reinsurer's Perspective
What does the Insurer and Reinsurer look at in the evaluation of an umbrella portfolio and what type of analyses are relevant for this unique line of business? The Primary Insurer perspective starts with the coverage, underwriting guidelines, pricing and profitability review. The reinsurer evaluation starts with the pre-quote underwriting audit, moves through a review of the underwriting and pricing guidelines, a detailed analysis of the submission, the underwriting/pricing analysis and a final quotation. The goal is to share a sense for the information and data collected, examined and evaluated for this line from both perspectives. The audience members will be given the opportunity to ask questions and share their own perspectives.
Source:
2010 Spring Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Joseph Izzo
Panelists:
Russell Buckley, Garick Zillgitt, Richard Woytus
Insurance Cycles: Are They Predictable?
Are insurance cycles predictable? Do we behave differently after the lessons learned from previous cycles?
The first speaker Steven Weisbart will make a retrospective analysis of his 2008 CAS Spring Meeting presentation on Market and Cycle, comparing what he predicted with what actually occurred.
The second speaker Joseph Monaghan will comment on market behavior. Is the insurance market more disciplined now or are the same dominating forces making the history repeat itself?
Source:
2010 Spring Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Joseph Izzo
Panelists:
Steven Weisbart, Joseph Monaghan
Commutations-A Cedant's Perspective on Risk Load
Insurance companies enter into commutations with their reinsurers for many reasons – both at their request and the request of the reinsurer. Some of the reasons insurers may commute include collecting from a reinsurer that is impaired or in run-off, collecting from an reinsurer that disputes coverage or is otherwise obstructive in paying, accelerating the receipt of a profit commission, accelerating the recognition of GAAP income on retroactive contracts, or because the reinsurance contract included a mandatory commutation date. The reinsurer may commute to eliminate long tail liabilities – elimination of which can generate underwriting income or reduce RBC required by rating agencies; to reduce claims maintenance on long-tail contracts; or, at the request of the insurer, to maintain a good relationship with the cedant.
Just as the original reinsurance contract included a risk load for the reinsurer, insurers need a risk load to cover the risk of the reacquired liabilities.
This session will give examples of commutation scenarios to illustrate these points and look at the magnitude of risk load to reacquire the liabilities.
Source:
2010 Spring Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Joseph Izzo
Panelists:
Lori Julga, Erin Bellott
Variance Paper: "A Pricing Model for Underinsured Motorist Coverage"
Underinsured Motorist (UIM) coverage, also known as Family Protection Coverage, is a component of most Canadian personal automobile policies, with similar coverage existing in many American states. Traditional ratemaking methods are not appropriate for UIM due to poor credibility of available data as well as the unique characteristics of the IUM coverage. A substitute pricing model is presented that takes advantage of the association between UIM coverage and increased-limits liability coverage. The Ontario auto industry is analyzed to determine the level of adequacy of UIM rates in light of current industry trends.
Source:
2010 Spring Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
David Lalonde
Panelists:
Matthew Buchalter
Workers Compensation: Medicare Reporting Requirements and Impact on Claims
Federal legislation known as "Section 111" enforces reporting requirements on insurers to ensure that Medicare remains the secondary payer of a workers compensation, no-fault or liability claim. This session will discuss the potential impact of that legislation on the ability of insurance entities to close workers compensation claims, and the consequential potential impact on workers compensation claim costs and actuarial analyses. The requirements could radically change the ability of insurers to settle the medical component of workers' compensation claims, in turn impacting reserving and loss development for workers compensation claims. This requirement may also have a disproportionate impact on larger claims, affecting the excess of loss costs as well as the ground-up loss costs for workers compensation.
Source:
2010 Spring Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
David Lalonde
Panelists:
David Bellusci, Raymond Blanchfield
Updating the Berquist-Sherman Paper: A Third of a Century Later
Much has changed since 1977. Talking to claims and underwriting, etc. has become even more critical, and the list of questions to ask has nearly doubled. The need for deeper understanding of recent development data is critical to more accurate ratemaking, as well. Dramatic case studies will be covered. Learn about the new text on basic reserving that has replaced eight major CAS reserving papers on the syllabus.
Source:
2010 Spring Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Stephen Meyer
Panelists:
Aaron Halpert, Scott Weinstein
The Secret Language of Influence - Your Passport to Powerful Persuasion
GOT INFLUENCE? How well do your words and phrases motivate (or de-motivate) others? Language training is the most neglected area of any management, leadership or business development program. Recent research from the world of psychology can help us increase the potency of our conversations. Useful for leading, managing and most critically, motivating others. This fun, interactive program will leave you wiser in your role as an executive, leader and manager and (most importantly) within your personal relationships.
* Introduction to persuasive language patterns - how psychologists and linguists define influential language
* Discover how to distinguish whether you should influence using "pain" or "gain." Attendees will recognize how the other person is motivated either to attain goals or to solve problems. Each type of individual requires different dialogues to motivate them to action.
* Identify whether you should offer evidence, testimonials or peer pressure to motivate specific individuals. Conversely, others make decisions based on their own beliefs and experiences and will not be influenced by endorsements, awards or accomplishments of yourself or your company. Uncover how you can influence each of these two distinct personalities.
* There are five language patterns (you probably use regularly) that undermine influence. Master persuasion skills by raising awareness of words and phrases that can hurt your ability to communicate potently with employees, peers, buyers and personal relationships.
* Wrap-up, call to action for newer, better language skills.
Source:
2010 Spring Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Panelists:
Dan Seidman
Florida Legislative Issues: Challenges and Opportunities
Florida has always been a challenging state with respect to property/casualty insurance due to its geographical location, demographics and diversity. In recent years the insurance market has faced an increase in challenges in the wake of natural catastrophes and politics. This session will begin with a discussion of the politics that have shaped the regulatory and legislative environments, the impacts of such with respect to the property market and concerns with the state’s Cat Fund, residual market and overall capacity and concentration trends. Scrutiny of the property insurance market, particularly homeowners, will be discussed as well as the impact this has on other lines of business. Finally, the panel will conclude on what the future could hold for Florida with predictions for change in the political landscape.
Source:
2010 Spring Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Michael Toothman
Panelists:
Michele Balady, Rich Fidei
An Introduction to Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) Methods for Bayesian Analysis
For many years, actuaries have been using credibility formulas to incorporate prior information into ratemaking. Multi-dimensional analogues have yet to find mainstream applications. Recent developments in Bayesian statistics have the potential to remedy this. MCMC methods can be easily adapted to a multi-dimensional context. The session will begin with one and two dimensional parameter models. It will close with some multi-parameter loss reserve models. The examples will illustrate how MCMC methods can lead to quantification of both process and parameter risk.
Source:
2010 Spring Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Alex Swedlow
Panelists:
Frank Schmid
Reserve Variability Calculations
This session will demonstrate reserve variability under a variety of methods. The ChainLadder package is a library of functions written in R to perform reserve variability calculations, including Mack, Munich Chain Ladder and Bootstrapping. The package has recently been extended with multivariate capability, which the authors will unveil at this meeting. Simple examples will illustrate the package's use as a pure calculation engine as well its integration with MS Office. Dave Clark's Curve Fitting method will also be demonstrated. This method uses maximum likelihood theory to model the distribution of loss development, estimate future loss emergence, and assess the variability around that estimate. It will be shown how using an exposure base to supplement the data in a development triangle can reduce variability. Practical estimation error and extrapolation issues will be discussed.
Source:
2010 Spring Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Alex Swedlow
Panelists:
Markus Gesmann, Wayne Zhang, Jimmy Curcio
Measuring the Economic Value of Risk Classification
When building predictive models for risk classification, an initial instinct for many would be to evaluate a model by a goodness of fit statistic. This session will discuss ways to evaluate risk classification models from an economic perspective. The basic idea of risk classification from an economic perspective is to identify risks where using the current classification significantly risks are either over or underpriced. The presenters will discuss properties of various economic measures of risk classification such as Value of Lift and the Gini index. They will then show how the measures perform with real predictive models.
Source:
2010 Spring Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Alex Swedlow
Panelists:
A. Cummings, Edward Frees
Litigation Changes And Their Impact On General Liability
How has the legal climate changed during the past few years? Will we see a trend toward more favorable or unfavorable conditions for defendant companies and their insurers? How has the recent recession and financial crisis had an impact on tort trends? How can insurers protect their products from unanticipated (and under-funded) exposures?
This panel will provide an update on the litigation environment and its affect on general liability exposures.
Source:
2010 Spring Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Alex Swedlow
Panelists:
Damon Lay, Patrick Hanlon
Chinese Drywall - Who Will Pay?
In the wake of the housing boom and hurricane activity a significant amount of drywall was imported from China between 2004 and 2007. There are numerous reports regarding corrosion to air conditioning, pipes and electrical wires as well as complaints about “rotton-egg” smell. Additionally, bodily injury claims such as headaches, respiratory problems, nausea, etc. have been reported. There are a significant number of legal issues regarding this exposure with a focus on which party is liable for the perceived damage. This session will discuss the issues surrounding Chinese drywall and the implications for the Property and Casualty Industry.
Source:
2010 Spring Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Jason Flick
Panelists:
Rachel Boles, Howard Taylor, Fred Karlinsky
California Workers Compensation - Where Do We Go Now?
The legislative reforms of 2003-2004 have had a significant impact on the California workers compensation market, with average premium rates decreasing by more than 50% over the period. However, post-reform data shows sharp increases in medical costs, and recent decisions by the WCAB are also expected to increase indemnity costs. This session will focus on the post-reform California environment, and what those changes could mean for the market.
Source:
2010 Spring Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Robb Luck
Panelists:
David Bellusci, Alex Swedlow
Workers Compensation Loss Development Tail
Little credible data exists for evaluating the shape of the WC tail beyond 30 years of development. This session's panelists will present their findings from applying two very different actuarial models to medical WC tail data from 30 to 65 years of development. Some key issues that will be addressed are:
* Once inflation is adjusted out, do medical costs for permanently disabled claimants change noticeably as they age?
* What kind of long term rate of medical cost escalation has been exhibited for medical payments to permanently disabled claimants in the tail?
Source:
2010 Spring Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Angeles Yañez
Panelists:
Frank Schmid, Richard Sherman
Proposed New CAS Continuing Education Policy
At its May 2009 meeting, the CAS Board approved a motion stating that all CAS members should be subject to CPD requirements, with exceptions, and charged the Executive Council with development of the details of such a policy (for approval at a future Board meeting). The second exposure draft of this policy was released in November 2009, with a comment period that ended in January 2010.
Members of the drafting group of current and past EC members that is developing this policy (on behalf of the Board and EC) will present the latest status of this policy, including comments received on the November 2009 exposure draft and the latest version of the policy that reflects those comments. This session is intended to include an extensive dialog between the drafters of this policy and the audience. It will also be testing an Audience Response System to gauge the general audience reaction to a series of questions on the policy and related Continuing Education issues.
Source:
2010 Spring Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Panelists:
Kenneth Quintilian, Ralph Blanchard, Pat Teufel
Instructional Approach to Variance Models: Munich Chain Ladder/Capital Allocation Download Presentation 1 Download Presentation 2 Instructional Approach to Variance Models: Munich Chain Ladder/Capital Allocation
In this hands-on session we will walk through the mechanics of two models. The models are 1) the Munch Chain Ladder (Quarg and Mack) and Capital Allocation (Bodoff) published in recent issues of Variance. The purpose of the session is to bridge the gap between theory and practice. We will discuss the pros/cons of using each model, and review case studies using real data. While we will review the theory, the sessions are designed to provide a hands-on focus on using the models. For example, how can you use the Munich Chain Ladder model to improve reserve estimates? How does the model compare to other models for the same application. What other real life obstacles do you run into when using these methods? The goal is to help you develop the confidence and desire to go back and begin using these models in your process in addition to your other techniques.
Source:
2010 Spring Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Ellen Cooper
Panelists:
Louise Francis, Neil Bodoff
