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STAY TUNED! If you are anticipating additional search filters by attribute and level to align with the CAS Capability Model, it is coming later this Summer. As the CAS begins to code recorded sessions by specific attributes and levels (starting with the 2023 Annual Meeting), these will be tagged in the CAS database of presentations going forward and should be searchable.
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STAY TUNED! If you are anticipating additional search filters by attribute and level to align with the CAS Capability Model, it is coming later this Summer. As the CAS begins to code recorded sessions by specific attributes and levels (starting with the 2023 Annual Meeting), these will be tagged in the CAS database of presentations going forward and should be searchable.
But you may use the Capability Model now to help you identify topics. For example, if you want to move up one level under the content area “Functional Expertise,” you may search topics in the particular functional area to expand your knowledge.
Recorded content is searchable by Capability Model attribute and level in the CAS Online Library.
Reserve Ranges - A Summary of the COPLFR Issue Brief
Source:
2009 Regional Affiliate - SWAF
Type:
affiliate
Panelists:
Marc Oberholtzer
Keywords:
COPLFR Issue, Reserve Ranges
Business Session Presentation
Source:
2009 Regional Affiliate - SWAF
Type:
affiliate
Panelists:
Robert Penwick
Reserving for Title Insurance in a Changing Real Estate Market
Source:
2009 Regional Affiliate - SWAF
Type:
affiliate
Panelists:
David Lang
Keywords:
Reserving
Financial Crisis: Private and Public Sector Impacts
Source:
2009 Regional Affiliate - SWAF
Type:
affiliate
Panelists:
Bob Hartwig
Keywords:
Financial Crisis
Attorneys Who Defend Actuaries
Source:
2009 Regional Affiliate - SWAF
Type:
affiliate
Panelists:
Mary Eaton
Keywords:
law
Collateralized Debt Obligations
Source:
2009 Regional Affiliate - SWAF
Type:
affiliate
Panelists:
Thomas Struppeck
Keywords:
Collateralized Debt
Using Your Professionalism GPS to Navigate the Actuarial World
The importance of actuarial work to the financial stability of a company may lead to varying ethical challenges for the actuary. However, every actuary has a "professionalism" GPS containing the Code of Conduct and Actuarial Standards of Practice specifically designed to navigate you through any business situation. Following a brief discussion of the importance of professionalism, panelists will facilitate the review of several hypothetical case studies that pose ethical dilemmas in a variety of situations. Each case study will include a review of relevant Code precepts and ASOPs that will help frame an ethical solution. Audience participation is highly encouraged to produce more thoughtful solutions to the cases. (Note that under the current Qualification Standards, three of the thirty CE hours need to be on professionalism topics.)
Source:
2009 Regional Affiliate - CAMAR
Type:
affiliate
Panelists:
Jennifer Vincent, Terry Klodnicki
Keywords:
Professionalism
CAS Board Update
Pat Teufel, outgoing VP - Marketing & Communications and former CAS Board member, will provide an overview of the current issues being addressed by the CAS Board. Topics likely to be of particular interest will be: possible future education methods (FEM) being explored for basic education; a proposed CAS Policy on Continuing Education; expanded options for continuing education, including University of CAS; the status of the CAS ERM Designation; and the Board's response to issues identified through the Five-Year Membership Survey. Ample time will be allotted for questions from members and candidates.
Source:
2009 Regional Affiliate - CAMAR
Type:
affiliate
Panelists:
Pat Teufel
Actuarial Foundation Update
The Actuarial Foundation is the sole independent philanthropic organization for the actuarial profession in the United States. Pat Teufel, a Trustee of the Foundation, will share her perspectives on the work of the Foundation and how CAS members might become involved.
Source:
2009 Regional Affiliate - CAMAR
Type:
affiliate
Panelists:
Pat Teufel
What Makes a Good Rate Filing?
What makes a good rate filing, especially when GLM or other predictive modeling techniques are the basis for the analysis? How can you demonstrate that the proposed rates pass regulatory muster that they be neither excessive, nor inadequate, nor unfairly discriminatory? Both the regulatory and the company viewpoint will be represented. A lively discussion should ensue!
Source:
2009 Regional Affiliate - CAMAR
Type:
affiliate
Panelists:
Ken Creighton, Chet Szczepanski
Keywords:
Good Rate Filing
NAIC Risk-Focused Examinations
Risk-focused financial examinations will become an NAIC accreditation standard in 2010. This approach to financial examinations is quite different than the traditional approach, but the methodology is particularly aligned with actuarial skills. This panel will compare and contrast traditional and risk-focused examinations, with an emphasis on the requirements and expectations of the risk-focused approach. They will outline how Company actuaries can work effectively with state regulators to facilitate the process, and ultimately save their Company time and money.
Source:
2009 Regional Affiliate - CAMAR
Type:
affiliate
Panelists:
Steve Lacke, Melissa Greiner
Keywords:
Risk, NAIC
Workers' Compensation - How long is the tail?
Workers Compensation presents a mixture of a substantial majority of medical only claims with less numerous, but much more variable, indemnity (lost-time) claims. Some indemnity claims can remain open for decades, with significant implications for the duration of time over which loss amounts are paid and the possibility of changes in estimates of individual claim values long after the original accidents occurred (i.e., in the loss development "tail".) There are differing levels of data and information available to estimate this "tail" for actuaries making various projections. In this session we will define the problem, review some historical loss development experience and discuss various approaches taken by actuaries at insurance companies, consulting firms and workers compensation rating bureaus to the challenges of estimating loss development in the tail, including a recent analysis of a large body of relevant data spanning over 70 years.
Source:
2009 Regional Affiliate - CAMAR
Type:
affiliate
Moderators:
Paul Anderson
Panelists:
John Robertson, Tim Wisecarver, Sean McAllister
Keywords:
Workers' Compensationb
Evolving Accounting Standards
Changes in accounting standards are impacting the financial reporting landscape for both insurers and users of their statements. Some of these changes apply specifically to insurers, such as Phase II of the IASB insurance contracts project, and some changes to general accounting standards will impact insurers as well. Since Phase II is a joint FASB/IASB project, in several years this newly developed financial reporting standard will likely converge with US GAAP which would change the presentation of loss reserves and perhaps how revenue is recognized. This session will present an overview of recent activity addressing accounting standards, discuss the roles and recent interactions among players such as the FASB, IASB, and the NAIC, provide an update on the Phase II Insurance Contracts project, and give an overview of some specific changes that are in various stages of implementation and development.
Source:
2009 Annual Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Paul Anderson
Panelists:
Marc Oberholtzer, Mel Anderson
Keywords:
Accounting Standards
Topics in Predictive Modeling
This session will cover two topics. The first topic will be "Pure Premium Modeling with the Tweedie Distribution." When you build predictive models with insurance data, zero losses tend to cause problems with the standard models (e.g. gamma and lognormal distributions). The Tweedie distribution has properties that fit will with insurance losses and can be incorporated into GLM and, more generally, maximum likelihood estimation. Examples in ratemaking and loss reserving will be given. The second topic will be "The Value of Rate Segmentation." This session will talk about how to evaluate predictive models. Concepts covered will include goodness of fit tests, the Gini index and the Value of Lift.
Source:
2009 Annual Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Paul Anderson
Panelists:
A. Cummings
Keywords:
Predictive Modeling
Stochastic Loss Reserving with the Collective Risk Model
This paper presents a Bayesian stochastic loss reserve model with the following features.
1. The model for expected loss payments depends upon unknown parameters that determine the expected loss ratio for the given accident years and the expected payment for each settlement lag.
2. The distribution of outcomes is given by the collective risk model in which the expected claim severity increases with the settlement lag. The claim count distribution is given by a Poisson distribution with its mean determined by dividing the expected loss by the expected claim severity.
3. The parameter sets that describe the posterior distribution of the parameters in (1) above are calculated with the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm.
4. For each parameter set generated by the Metropolis Hastings algorithm in (3), the predicted distribution of outcomes is calculated using a Fast Fourier Transform (FFT). The Bayesian predictive distribution of outcomes is a mixture of the distributions of outcomes over all the parameter sets produced by the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm.
Source:
2009 Annual Meeting
Type:
paper
Moderators:
Paul Anderson
Panelists:
Glenn Meyers, Richard Verrall
Black Swans and Red Herrings: Varieties of Model Risk
Actuaries commonly distinguish between 3 types of "risks" in their statistical modeling work: process risk, parameter risk, and model risk. The recent financial crisis has cast the importance of this distinction in a sharp light. Process and Parameter risk are well understood and can be analyzed and quantified as part of the model specification process. However model risk is less amenable to quantification, and perhaps for this reason often receives less attention. Yet as events during the recent financial crisis have illustrated, model risk can often be the most significant - and insidious - of the three types of risks. This session will review and analyze the way process, parameter and model risk are typically discussed in the literature as well as suggest an expanded conception of model risk that encompasses Knightian uncertainty and "black swans" at one extreme and practical implementation risks at the other.
Source:
2009 Annual Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Paul Anderson
Panelists:
Glenn Meyers, Ali Ishaq
Keywords:
Varieties of Model Risk
Federal Regulation - Yes or No
The topic of federal regulation has been debated for several years now. However, in the recent months the discussions have intensified. There seem to be strong arguments by several insurance companies-some in favor of federal regulation, others very much opposed. This session will present two differing viewpoints. In the spirit of a formal debate each side will be allowed to present their case, and then later will be given an opportunity to respond to the other side. Finally, the session will conclude with questions from the audience.
Source:
2009 Annual Meeting
Type:
general
Moderators:
Paul Anderson
Panelists:
Edward Collins, Jimi Grande
Impact of the Deregulation of Massachusetts Personal Auto Insurance
Effective April 1, 2008, Massachusetts deregulated pricing for personal auto insurance and implemented a system called, "Managed Competition". This session will explore the impact of these changes on companies, competition, actuarial analysis, and rate filings. What were some of the prior constraints on rates? What constraints have been loosened and how have companies adjusted their rates? What constraints still exist? Have any new constraints been introduced? Have carriers introduced any rating variables that would be considered unique to Massachusetts? What impact does the new assigned risk market have on carrier rates? What parallels can be drawn between the Massachusetts personal automobile insurance reforms and potential reforms in other states and lines of business?
Source:
2009 Annual Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Louis Mak
Panelists:
Joseph Cofield, Stephen Bruce, Bernie Torri
Keywords:
Deregulation, Personal Auto Insurance
Introducing R: An Interactive Environment for Actuarial Modeling (Part I)
Part 1 of a two-part series introduces the R data analysis and visualization environment with actuarial examples. In this hands-on session attendees are encouraged to work through the examples on their own laptops. Although it is hoped that attendees will arrive with a recent (³ 2.6) version of R installed (a free download from http://www.r-project.org), no prior experience is required. We will cover just enough of R-s functionality - vectors and tables, data input and output, manipulation, simulation and visualization - to pique your curiosity to learn more about this powerful and highly regarded tool. Attendees are not required to sign up for both sessions.
Source:
2009 Annual Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Panelists:
Daniel Murphy, Michael Driscoll
Keywords:
R, Actuarial Modeling
Joint Risk Management Section Luncheon
The Joint Risk Management Section of the CAS, SOA, and CIA invites you to attend a luncheon to learn more about the Section and its activities. In addition, David Ingram will give a 50-minute presentation, giving you an opportunity for an extra credit of continuing education.
Perspectives of Risk According to the Eye of the Beholder
People are actually the key to understanding financial and insurance market risks -- people who are acting out their own idea of what is the best thing to do right now. The interactions of these people are what make the financial and insurance markets. The way that people view risk varies widely and changes over time depending on the environment, and the actions and choices of other people. This presentation will discuss several theories about attitudes towards risk and reward that help to drive a dynamic mix up in the markets.
Source:
2009 Annual Meeting
Type:
keynote
Panelists:
Donald Mango, David Ingram
Variance Paper and Report: "NCCI's 2007 Hazard Group Mapping" and NCCI Annual Loss Reserving Study
"NCCI's 2007 Hazard Group Mapping" by John Robertson
In 2007 NCCI implemented a new mapping of Workers Compensation classifications into seven hazard groups, replacing the previous mapping into four hazard groups. Hazard groups are collections of Workers Compensation classifications with similar excess loss factors. The new seven NCCI hazard groups are not simply a subdivision of the previous four, but rather represent a completely new mapping. The presentation describes the blend of technical analysis (credibility, cluster analysis) and judgment used to determine the new hazard groups.
NCCI Workers Compensation Industry Loss Reserve Analysis
NCCI completes a private carrier loss reserve analysis annually. The results of various approaches are reviewed for reasonableness and stability over time. At the meeting, NCCI staff will present the results of its most recent analysis.
Source:
2009 Annual Meeting
Type:
paper
Moderators:
Steve Manders
Panelists:
John Deacon, John Robertson
Solvency Regulation
The NAIC has started a wholesale review of how they regulate insurers, called the Solvency Modernization Initiative. How does U.S. solvency regulation compare with Solvency II in Europe? This panel features Kathryn Morgan of the U.K.'s Financial Services Authority, who has been deeply involved with the creation of Solvency II, and Ramon Calderon, Director for the Center for Insurance Policy & Research, NAIC. Panelists will discuss Solvency II, the NAIC Solvency Modernization Initiative, and how the concepts of Solvency II may or may not work in the U.S.
Source:
2009 Annual Meeting
Type:
general
Moderators:
Steve Manders
Panelists:
Kathryn Morgan, Ramon Calderon
Current CAS Issues and Future Directions
Source:
2009 Regional Affiliate - CAE
Type:
affiliate
Panelists:
Chris Carlson
From deterministic to stochastic reserving - an overview
Source:
2009 Regional Affiliate - CAE
Type:
affiliate
Panelists:
Michael Bamberger
Keywords:
stochastic reserving
1 Year View of Risk and Risk Margins
Source:
2009 Regional Affiliate - CAE
Type:
affiliate
Panelists:
Peter England
Keywords:
risk, risk margins
