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STAY TUNED! If you are anticipating additional search filters by attribute and level to align with the CAS Capability Model, it is coming later this Summer. As the CAS begins to code recorded sessions by specific attributes and levels (starting with the 2023 Annual Meeting), these will be tagged in the CAS database of presentations going forward and should be searchable.
But you may use the Capability Model now to help you identify topics. For example, if you want to move up one level under the content area “Functional Expertise,” you may search topics in the particular functional area to expand your knowledge.
Recorded content is searchable by Capability Model attribute and level in the CAS Online Library.
Open Source Loss Simulation Model
The Loss Simulation Model Working Party (LSMWP) , via the Dynamic Risk Modeling Committee, engaged a consulting firm to develop an open source simulation model of the processes of loss emergence and settlement, commonly known as loss development, that underlie the loss "triangles" and other statistics used to estimate unpaid claims. It has created a tool that researchers could use to generate claims that can be summarized into loss development triangles and complete rectangles which could then be used to test loss reserving methods and models. The new model is programmed in R and VB.NET, replacing a prototype model that was developed in APL which is not accessible today to most actuaries. The panelists will present the initial version of the new model and tests that have been performed.
Source:
2009 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
A. Cummings
Panelists:
Joseph Marker, Mark Shapland, Hai You
NAIC Risk-Based Examinations
The NAIC examination process is moving toward a more risk focused view with an emphasis on identifying those aspects of an insurer's business practices. This might present significant risks, not only in the valuation of assets and liabilities as of the balance sheet date, but going forward. This also represents a move away from examining operational details towards a "Big Picture" or "Top Down" approach. There will be less transaction testing and more process and control testing. The structure has been designed so that companies with strong controls in place will receive less attention from regulators, as they are essentially self-regulating. Those without strong controls can expect to receive more regulatory attention.
The goal is to focus more of the limited regulatory resources on companies that need it and less on those that don't. Examinations will contain risk assessments of both financial reporting and non-financial reporting components of key activities. Except for a company with poor control of the reserving process, the reserving risk assessment generally would not entail an independent estimate of the carried reserves. Pricing and underwriting discipline are also essential elements in maintaining financial strength. This session will describe the principal characteristics of the risk-based examination process and discuss some of the major the differences between risk-based examinations and traditional financial condition examinations.
Source:
2009 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
A. Cummings
Panelists:
Ramona Lee
Homeowners Insurance-Key Reserving Issues
In the past Homeowners had been viewed as a stable, mostly predictable line of business for a reserving actuary. However, even the property losses in this line have become more unpredictable due to increases in catastrophe frequency and severity as a result of global warming. Also, as our society has continued to become more litigious, other less traditional claims are being seen, such as mold (and the resulting severity increases from a water loss in order to mitigate the chance of mold), leaking underground storage tanks, and unanticipated coverage expansions. During this session you will learn about the new challenges faced in reserving for this once predictable line of business.
Source:
2009 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
A. Cummings
Panelists:
Klayton Southwood, George McCloskey
Are your Opinions and Actuarial Reports Meeting the Expectation of Regulators and Others?
This session will answer key questions such as: what's good about the Actuarial Reports and Opinions and what are some of the weaknesses or lack of transparency in some reports? Is there too much boiler plate language or are the reports and opinions unique to the individual company? There will also be a brief discussion on statistics from the 2008 Actuarial Opinions on materiality standards, ranges, and others.
Source:
2009 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
A. Cummings
Panelists:
Joseph Herbers, Nicole Elliott, Sarah Fore
Workers Compensation - How Long is the Tail?
Workers Compensation presents a mixture of a substantial majority of medical only claims with less numerous, but much more variable, indemnity (lost-time) claims. Some indemnity claims can remain open for decades, with significant implications for the duration of time over which loss amounts are paid and/or identified and the potential emergence of losses long after the original accidents occurred (i.e., in the loss development "tail".) There are differing levels of data and information available to estimate this "tail" for actuaries making various projections. In this session we will define the problem, review some historical loss development experience and discuss various approaches taken by actuaries at insurance companies, consulting firms and workers compensation rating bureaus to the challenges of estimating loss development in the tail, including a recent analysis of a large body of relevant data spanning over 70 years.
Source:
2009 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
A. Cummings
Panelists:
Timothy Wisecarver, Frank Schmid, Christopher Tait
Title Insurance Loss Reserving - Historical Results and Emerging Trends
Title insurance operating results are sensitive to economic conditions, particularly when the real estate market has been stressed for several years, and agent defalcations occur on a frequent basis. Carriers issuing Title insurance policies must contend with risks that are correlated with the general economy, an imploding subprime mortgage marketplace, illiquidity in the lending community and rising delinquency rates on mortgages.
The speakers will summarize the coverage provisions associated with Title insurance, identify unique reserving issues that do not exist with traditional P&C product lines as well as present a review of the historical operating results of the Title insurance industry over the past several years.
Source:
2009 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Todd Lehmann
Panelists:
Paul Struzzieri
Mortgage Insurance Reserving in a Stressed Market
This session presents the business model underlying mortgage insurance. It explores the impact of the current economic environment on the reserving techniques and also presents key statistics of the industry during the current mortgage crisis.
Source:
2009 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Todd Lehmann
Panelists:
Thomas Conway, Kenneth Dailey
Keywords:
Mortgage Insurance Reserving
ERM in the Aftermath of the Financial Crisis
What lessons have insurers learned from the financial crisis? What are the essential ingredients of a successful Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) program? Following the worst financial meltdown since the Great Depression, where does the practice of ERM go from here? The panelists will share their perspectives on ERM, including lessons learned about governance, risk appetite and capital management. Panelists will also explore the role of ERM within a dynamic insurance company and impact of ERM from leading rating agency's perspective.
Source:
2009 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Richard Lino
Panelists:
Michael Angelina, Raj Guttha
Keywords:
ERM, Enterprise Risk Management
Case Studies of Problem Situations Arising in the Actuarial Opinion and Report
Many questions arise when preparing the formal Statement of Actuarial Opinion and Report. While the Practice Note provides valuable guidance, unusual issues inevitably surface for which specific guidance is lacking. For example:
* When should one issue a qualified opinion or no opinion?
* How should one handle reserves that are reasonable on a net basis but inadequate on a direct and assumed basis?
* How does one determine the best materiality threshold?
* How much should be disclosed if/when the company fails one of the IRIS tests involving loss development?
* Should disclosures be made if the company has extended reporting reserves for lines other than medical malpractice?
This panel will draw from their practical experience and describe numerous problem situations that have arisen over the years and describe the process used for dealing with such in the Statement of Actuarial Opinion and the Report supporting that opinion.
Source:
2009 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Richard Lino
Panelists:
Patricia Teufel, Christopher Walker
Keywords:
Actuarial Opinion, Statement of Actuarial Opinion and Report
Update on International and U.S. Insurance Accounting Issues Including the Latest on Loss Reserve Discounting
This panel will discuss the latest developments with international accounting rules (IFRS) and U.S. GAAP accounting issues relative to insurance.
Items to be discussed include:
* What IFRS is, and how it differs from U.S. GAAP
* If and/or when the U.S. will eventually adopt IFRS, and whether it really matters anymore
* The latest developments regarding loss reserve discounting for U.S. GAAP and IFRS and the "fair value" debate
* The current debate regarding when profits (and/or losses) are to be recognized under IFRS and U.S. GAAP accounting
* The debate concerning whether to retain the concept of an unearned premium reserve, and what it might mean to actuaries
* How the basic balance sheet and income statement might change for GAAP
The panel will focus on the needs of a typical reserving actuary in understanding and supporting a company's financial reporting and analysis.
Source:
2009 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Richard Lino
Panelists:
Mary Miller, Mark Trench
An Easy Way to get a Range Around a Reserve Using Historical Reserve Estimate Changes
Can we build a range around an actuary's loss estimate using historical ultimate loss selections? Using this data we can analyze selection biases, direct and net reserve ranges and loss portfolio transfer values. The entire calculation can be done on an excel spreadsheet using reserve review data segments. We illustrate everything with real world data.
Source:
2009 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Richard Lino
Panelists:
Zia Rehman
Keywords:
Reserve
The Shoe Yet to Drop: Inflation Risk and the Property/Casualty Industry
The inflationary environment in the U.S. has been relatively benign since the early 1980’s. However, many see leading indicators in the economy that raise the specter of increased risk of inflation in the future. This session will discuss the economic background and potential risks. A look back to the inflationary periods of the 1970’s and early 1980’s will be reviewed, and the implications regarding risk to current property/casualty insurance balance sheets and income statements. Actuarial approaches to deal with inflation risk will be discussed, as well as overall hedges companies can consider if they consider the risk of inflation to be a serious threat.
Source:
2009 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Ellisa Sirovotka
Panelists:
Aaron Halpert, Thomas Lee, Daniel North
Measuring Risk Transfer and Other Elusive Tasks
Much of the riddle of reinsurance can be answered by answering the question "What are the reasons why reinsurance is purchased?" For some ceding companies and their reinsurers, an important result of a transaction is the existence (or the perception) of risk transfer, for financial as well as risk management reasons. This panel will discuss various ways risk transfer can be evaluated and other elusive quantitative tasks of reinsurance reserving, such as reserving for excess of aggregate covers. Some prior knowledge of reinsurance is presumed for this session.
Source:
2009 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Ellisa Sirovotka
Panelists:
Paul Vendetti, Susan Forray
Keywords:
Risk Transfer, reinsurance
Workers Compensation Loss Reserving - Estimating Layoff Impacts
The recent economic turmoil has extended well beyond financial companies and Wall Street. It is now in effecting many aspects of corporate America, many in ways they could not have imagined. One of those areas is their self-insured Workers Compensation loss reserves. As the turmoil spreads, companies cut costs by laying off workers. This in turn, can increase Workers Compensation costs as workers turn to alternative mechanisms to generate lost income. We will demonstrate methods to estimate the impact of layoffs on a companies loss reserves and how to view those reserves pre and post layoff announcement. We will introduce additional methods to stabilize loss reserving methods during periods of volatility, as seen in the recent economic downturn. At the end of the session, the attendee will have a better understanding of the factors that lead to higher loss reserves during a severe economic downturn and methods to isolate their effects.
Source:
2009 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
David Li
Panelists:
David Mohrman, John Booth, Teri Gass
Keywords:
Workers Compensation Loss Reserving
Primary Insurer vs. Reinsurer Reserving
The reserving of reinsurance business, from either the perspective of the assuming reinsurance company or ceding primary company, has challenges different from reserving primary, first-dollar business. Edward J. Stanco, ACAS, MAAA, Chief Executive Officer at The Toa Reinsurance Company of America and Robert A. Giambo, FCAS, MAAA, Managing Director - Corporate Actuarial at Swiss Reinsurance America Corporation will discuss some of these differences. In particular, they will discuss how to incorporate pricing information into the reserving process in order to improve the reserving estimates throughout the underwriting cycle. Joseph L. Petrelli, ACAS, MAAA, President, Demotech, Inc., will moderate the session.
Source:
2009 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Richard Goldfarb
Panelists:
Edward Stanco, Robert Giambo
Keywords:
Primary Insurer, Reinsurer Reserving, reserving of reinsurance
Commercial Lines - A Potpourri of Reserving Issues
This interesting and informative session is designed to cover a variety of reserving topics for Commercial Lines of Business that are not necessarily part of the actuary's every day "bag of tricks". First, we'll focus in on approaches to reserving for "non-traditional exposures" such as construction defect and mass tort exposures. Next, we'll show how to use the Cape Cod and the Backward Recursive methods-two very useful projection techniques but ones that you may have heard of but never knew how (or when) to use. Finally, we'll discuss ways of reflecting the impact of the insurance cycle in reserving and techniques used to allocate IBNR to sub-groups.
Source:
2009 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Richard Goldfarb
Panelists:
Kim Piersol, Thomas Ryan
Keywords:
Reserving, Commercial Lines
Workers' Compensation : What About Frequency?
Trend considerations, both with respect to exposure and loss cost, are vital to several methodologies used in loss reserving. This session will examine how the recognition of trends impacts the indications produced by some of these methodologies (Bornhuetter-Ferguson, etc.).
Sources for trend, both implicit in the data or culled from external resources will be discussed. Commonly used external resources, such as the Masterson indexes and the Bureau of Labor Statistics, will be presented and evaluated, as well as some not as commonly used by the workers' compensation actuary. The evaluation of changing environmental factors, such as economic conditions and legislative reform, on trend will be examined.
A focus of the session will be the common use of severity trend without consideration of frequency trend, especially when external sources are utilized.
Source:
2009 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Richard Goldfarb
Panelists:
Arthur Cohen, Ian Sterling
Keywords:
Workers' Compensation
The ABCD and The Reserving Actuary
Find out how the Actuarial Board for Counseling and Discipline works. The panelist, a member of the ABCD, will also discuss issues raised by request for guidance and by complaints before the ABCD. As a reserving actuary, you are subject to disciplinary and litigation risk. Find out ways to reduce this risk and learn about the operation of the profession's counseling and the disciplinary process. Discussion of case studies will be included as part of the session.
Source:
2009 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Alex Pollock
Panelists:
Michael Toothman
Keywords:
ABCD, Reserving
Capital Management of all Long Tail Liabilities Including Reserve Risk and Underwriting risk
This talk discusses and demonstrates, using real data, the capital management of all long tail lines of business. The data are extracted from A.M.Best Schedule P 2006 and includes Berkshire Hathaway, The Hartford, SwissRe and others.
We address the three types of correlations, process correlation, parameter correlation and reserve distribution correlation and see how they can help us determine if two LOBs have common drivers.
The design of a composite model for each company that measures the volatility in each LOB and the correlation structure is described. No two companies are the same in respect of volatility, correlations and calendar year payment streams.
We compare companies' risk capital allocation for reserve risk, underwriting risk and combined risk. Risk capital, derived from either VaR or T-VaR is allocated to LOBs and calendar years and the allocation is different for each company.
Source:
2009 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Panelists:
Ben Zehnwirth
Keywords:
Capital Management, Long Tail Liabilities, Reserve Risk, Underwriting risk
Current Issues and Trends in D&O and E&O
Our global economy has been impacted by the ramifications of the ongoing credit crisis. Leading mortgage lenders, major investment banks, and real estate development companies are but a few of the types of organizations that have felt the brunt of this crisis. The Federal Reserve has taken repeated actions to mitigate the impact on the economy. And individuals have lost their jobs and found it nearly impossible to obtain mortgages as a result of this crisis.
During this discussion, panelists will explore some of the issues that the insurance industry is facing with regard to the credit crisis, particularly as the industry attempts to better understand and quantify the exposure.
Specifically, panelists will discuss the impact that the industry must deal with as a result of an increase in class action lawsuits. Our panel will also delve into the methods, obstacles, and estimates on specific lines of business such as D&O and E&O and discuss the reserving aspects stemming from these issues.
Source:
2009 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Alex Pollock
Panelists:
Michael McManus, Athula Alwis, Kevin LaCroix
Keywords:
D&O and E&O
The Very Very Basic Guide to Reserve Variability / Ranges
This session will explain basic concepts associated with reserve variability and reserve ranges. It will start by describing the guidance that the Actuarial Standards of Practice are providing to practicing actuaries regarding the measurement of reserve uncertainty. Current market and regulatory trends that focus on the measurement of reserve uncertainty will also be described. In the second part of the session basic stochastic terminology will be explained in laymen terms. The audience should leave the session with a better understanding of the various types of risks measured in stochastic analysis and a basic understanding of the underlying ideas behind the most popular stochastic models and methods.
Source:
2009 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Alex Pollock
Panelists:
Martha Winslow
Keywords:
Reserve Variability / Ranges
Current Developments Regarding Tax Issues Pertinent to P&C Actuaries
This session will focus on federal income tax issues of significance to P&C insurers, with particular emphasis on the deduction for losses and loss adjustment expenses. Also discussed during the session is the role of actuaries in explaining and defending the booked reserves before the IRS and in court, the definitions of "insurance" and "insurance company" for tax purposes. Finally, panelists will focus on recent IRS rulings regarding the excise tax on premiums covering U.S. risks reinsured and retro ceded offshore (including under treaties between non-U.S. companies), and legislative proposals disallowing ceded premium deductions.
Source:
2009 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Howard Eagelfeld
Panelists:
Craig Pichette, Gerald Bell
Keywords:
Tax
Performance Testing For Claim Reserves: How Robust Are Your Selected Methods?
Claim reserves are the largest liability on most property/casualty insurers' balance sheets, and claim reserve inadequacy is the biggest risk faced by many of these insurers. Both internal and external users of insurer financial statements rely on the actuary to do the best possible job in estimating claim liabilities. In this regard, how does the actuary know that the actuarial methods chosen to estimate the insurer's claim liabilities are the best methods?
This general session will present a performance testing methodology that can be used by the practitioner to evaluate the robustness of actuarial methods for the task at hand. The presentation will offer real-world examples. Practitioners who have employed such methods will provide insight to their application, accuracy, efficiency, and utility.
Source:
2009 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
general
Moderators:
Howard Eagelfeld
Panelists:
Stephen Lowe
10K And MD&A Disclosures - What The SEC Wants To See And Why
Over the past several years, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has sent comment letters to property and casualty insurance companies regarding their loss reserve disclosures in their 10K and MD&A. These letters typically ask for more detail and disclosure surrounding the process the company uses to set reserves, the key assumptions and/or judgments in the process, and the variability of the unpaid liabilities. While many companies have responded with more detailed disclosures, the transparency and effectiveness of disclosures in our industry still varies to a wide degree, and many companies continue to receive these comment letters.
Our panel is comprised of actuaries and other professionals that have significant experience with the SEC as it relates to loss reserve disclosures. The panel will discuss the guidance issued by the SEC that is specific to property and casualty insurance reserves, our experiences with the SEC in making disclosures more effective and transparent, and highlight examples of companies that have exceptional disclosures.
Source:
2009 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Kimberly Borgelt
Panelists:
Michael Angelina, Jay Cohen
Dirty Data: Anathema to Best Estimates!
Data is arguably the lifeblood of our industry. Accurate, clean data is essential to every decision and action insurers take. This general session will examine both the prevalence of data quality issues and the significance of those issues. Several actual data quality disasters will be examined. The sensitivity of loss reserve estimation to such disasters will be emphasized.
The session will offer tests to screen data for quality as well as offer guidance and a regimen to improve data quality.
Source:
2009 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
general
Moderators:
Kimberly Borgelt
Panelists:
Louise Francis, Simon Sheaf
