Search Presentations
STAY TUNED! If you are anticipating additional search filters by attribute and level to align with the CAS Capability Model, it is coming later this Summer. As the CAS begins to code recorded sessions by specific attributes and levels (starting with the 2023 Annual Meeting), these will be tagged in the CAS database of presentations going forward and should be searchable.
But you may use the Capability Model now to help you identify topics. For example, if you want to move up one level under the content area “Functional Expertise,” you may search topics in the particular functional area to expand your knowledge.
Recorded content is searchable by Capability Model attribute and level in the CAS Online Library.
Refine Your Search
The presentation materials are offered in connection with CAS professional education offerings. © 2022 Casualty Actuarial Society. All Rights Reserved. The presentation materials may contain copyrighted content the use of which has not been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. You are permitted to view and print the materials for personal/professional noncommercial research purposes. Except for the foregoing, you agree not to reproduce, distribute, modify, create derivative works, or commercially exploit the presentation materials without prior written permission from CAS. Please direct any copyright permission inquiries regarding use of the presentation materials to acs@casact.org.
STAY TUNED! If you are anticipating additional search filters by attribute and level to align with the CAS Capability Model, it is coming later this Summer. As the CAS begins to code recorded sessions by specific attributes and levels (starting with the 2023 Annual Meeting), these will be tagged in the CAS database of presentations going forward and should be searchable.
But you may use the Capability Model now to help you identify topics. For example, if you want to move up one level under the content area “Functional Expertise,” you may search topics in the particular functional area to expand your knowledge.
Recorded content is searchable by Capability Model attribute and level in the CAS Online Library.
ERM Implementation - Real-Life Stories
In this session, panelists will discuss their organization’s experiences in the ERM implementation process.
Including topics such as:
* Reasons for beginning an ERM program
* Initial steps- how to begin
* The ERM process-identifying, analyzing/quantifying, integrating, assessing/prioritizing, treating/exploiting, and monitoring risks
* What areas of the company are most involved in the process
* Progress and successes to date
It is intended that the discussions will generate a dialogue between the panelists and the audience about similarities, differences, challenges and successes they have experienced in their own organizations. It is also intended that there will be opportunity for significant audience participation.
Source:
2007 Spring Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Brian Stoll
Panelists:
Emily Gilde, David Murray, Janet Katz
Introduction to ERM- The Measurements, Quadrants, Tools, and Solutions
Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) does not reflect any new concepts; rather, it is an evolving “organizing” concept and/or philosophy. This session is essentially “ERM 101,” and panelists will discuss the key elements of what ERM is and what it is not. Panelists will discuss the framework of design, risk categorizations, an overview on tools, and approaches and disciplines to manage and measure opportunities, constraints, and threats with regard to the four sectors of risk:
* Strategic
* Operational
* Hazard
* Financial
Source:
2007 Spring Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Brian Stoll
Variance Paper Presentations: "Loss Reserve Estimates: A Statistical Approach for Determining 'Reasonableness'"
"Loss Reserve Estimates: A Statistical Approach for Determining 'Reasonableness'"
by Mark Shapland
While accounting principles and actuarial standards of practice are all well designed, they provide only broad guidance to the actuary on what is "reasonable." This broad guidance is based on the principle that "reasonable" assumptions and methods lead to "reasonable" estimates. Unfortunately, this broad guidance can leave the low end of a range of "reasonable" reserves open to an interpretation that could lead to unintended consequences in practice. This paper reviews some current actuarial practices and examines how they relate to the question of what is "reasonable" from a statistical perspective. Moreover, it reviews and further develops some statistical concepts and principles that actuaries can add to the their repertoire when developing ranges and distributions of liability estimates and then evaluating the "reasonableness" of management's best estimate within those ranges and distributions.
Source:
2007 Spring Meeting
Type:
Paper
Panelists:
Mark Shapland
Keywords:
Loss Reserve Estimates
Variance Paper Presentations: "The Common Shock Model for Correlated Insurance Losses" and "Multivariate Copulas for Financial Modeling"
"The Common Shock Model for Correlated Insurance Losses"
by Glenn G. Meyers
This paper discusses an approach to the correlation problem in which losses from different lines of insurance are linked by a common variation (or shock) in the parameters of each line's loss model. The paper begins with a simple common shock model and graphically illustrates the effect of the magnitude of the shocks on correlation. Next it describes some more general common shock models that involve common shocks to both the claim count and claim severity distributions. It derives formulas for the correlation between lines of insurance in terms of the magnitude of the common shocks and the parameters of the underlying claim count and claim severity distributions. Finally, it shows how to estimate the magnitude of the common shocks. A feature of this estimation is that it uses the data from several insurers.
"Multivariate Copulas for Financial Modeling"
by Gary Venter, Jack Barnett, Rodney Kreps, and John Major
Although the copula literature has many instances of bivariate copulas, once more than two variates are correlated, the choice of copulas often comes down to selection of the degrees-of-freedom parameter in the t-copula. In search for a wider selection of multivariate copulas we review a generalization of the t-copula and some copulas defined by Harry Joe. Generalizing the t-copula gives more flexibility in setting tail behavior. Possible application include insurance losses by line, credit risk by issuer, and exchange rates. The Joe copulas are somewhat restricted in the range of correlations and tail dependencies that can be produced. However, both right- and left-positive tail dependence is possible, and the behavior is somewhat different from the t-copula.
Source:
2007 Spring Meeting
Type:
Paper
Panelists:
Glenn Meyers, Gary Venter
Keywords:
Financial Modeling, correlated Insurance Losses, Multivariate Copulas
"Extended Service Contracts, An Overview"and "Modeling Mortgage Insurance as a Multistate Process"
Variance Paper Presentation "Extended Service Contracts, An Overview"
by Roger M. Hayne
Extended service contracts and their programs continue to evolve and expand to cover more and more products. This paper is intended to be a basic primer for the actuary or risk professional interested in either working in or understanding this area. We discuss the general structure of service contract programs and highlight features that should be considered in the review of the financial solidity of such programs.
"Modeling Mortgage Insurance as a Multistate Process"
by Greg Taylor and Peter Mulquiney
This paper covers experiences in modeling mortgage insurance claims. In Section 2, mortgage insurance claims are considered an absorbing state in a Markov chain that involves transitions between the states of healthy, in arrears, property in possession, property sold, loan discharged, and claim. Section 3 considers the representation of this process by a cascade of five frequency generalized linear models (GLMs) and a further GLM for claim size. These models are applied to the forecast of technical liabilities in Section 4 and the estimation of the associated forecast error in Section 5.
Source:
2007 Spring Meeting
Type:
Paper
Panelists:
Greg Taylor, Roger Hayne, Peter Mulquiney
Keywords:
Modeling Mortgage Insurance, Extended Service Contracts
Workers Compensation and Group Health Insurance - Comparisons of the Magnitude and the Cost Drivers of Medical Inflation
In response to feedback from a CAS Member survey, the CAS Committee on Health Care Initiatives chaired by Theresa Bourdon has been revived and, in conjunction with the SOA, is coordinating research and continuing education opportunities on health care issues impacting Casualty and Health Insurance. The CHCI is coordinating additional research for future continuing education opportunities on Medical Malpractice and other health care issues impacting Casualty Actuaries.
Trends in medical inflation and utilization get a great deal of attention among group health and workers compensation actuaries alike, but there is little research on their interrelationship and the impact of common cost drivers such as healthcare provider incentives, underlying medical inflation and government programs (e.g., medicare) on them. This session brings together experts on current trends in the healthcare industry to discuss the magnitude and components of group health and workers compensation medical trends, how they relate to one another and factors that drive trends in both. This will include underlying medical inflation per service, changes and differences in the mix of medical services, the impact of managed care, the ability to obtain discounts from providers, the use and effectiveness of networks, and the impact of government programs. Discussion will also focus on the outlook for workers comp and group health insurers in terms of their ability to manage and control medical trends going forward.
Source:
2007 Spring Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Keith Holler
Panelists:
John Robertson, John Cookson
Uses of Modeling in Workers Compensation
This session discusses how computer modeling was recently applied for use in Workers Compensation ratemaking and how statistical modeling is currently being explored for predicting loss development. First, we will discuss recent modifications made in NCCI ratemaking methodology to handle a) large individual claims, and b) catastrophic events related to the perils of industrial accidents, earthquake, and terrorism. Included within the discussion is how the modeling was done for each peril. Then we will discuss a Bayesian statisical model of loss development and tail factor estimation.
Source:
2007 Spring Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Keith Holler
Panelists:
Frank Schmid, Tom Daley
Use of Predictive Modeling in Claims Management
This session will cover the various applications of preductive modeling to the claims function. Emphasis will be placed on the personal automobile and workers’ compensation lines. Some applications to be presented include estimating claim settlement values, estimating the impact of law changes on claim values, identifying potential fraudulent claims, and managing the claims process.
Source:
2007 Spring Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Gordon Diss
Panelists:
Roosevelt Mosley
The State of the P/C Insurance Market in China
The rapid development of the China economy, the opening of the insurance market to private companies, and rapid growth (and enormous future potential) of premium volume has energized a significant wave of interest from foreign and domestic investors wanting to participate in the insurance business in China. This panel will provide an overview of the current property/casualty insurance market in China, and will share information and insights regarding the new compulsory auto liability law, the regulatory environment and the role of actuaries in the regulatory regime, solvency considerations, and various opportunities and challenges in the marketplace.
Source:
2007 Spring Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
James Guszcza
Panelists:
Peng Ding, Zhigang Xie, Qian Tao, Ray Yao
The Business Case for Predictive Modeling
Predictive modeling is one of the hot topics among actuaries, but in reality it is hard work and time consuming. So why do it? This panel will describe how this tool is most appropriately used in a business context.
We will start by describing that predictive models provide competitive advantage by allowing you to better segment risks by expected loss experience. The strategic question is, how will you use the tool? Will it be in pricing, in underwriting tiering, in competitive price analysis or price optimization, or all of these?
Next we will examine the business rationale for a predictive model from a non-technical perspective. The following key considerations will be discussed: what are the critical elements of a business case, how should a cost benefit calculation be structured, and how are actual business benefits measured on a go forward basis.
Once a decision is made to use predictive modeling, we will discuss how to accomplish the business goals. The issues related to managing the development and implementation of these complex tools will be addressed.
Source:
2007 Spring Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
James Guszcza
Panelists:
Beth Fitzgerald, Frank Zizzamia
The State of the Reinsurance Market
This session will give the audience an update on the current Property and Casualty Reinsurance Market, the reinsurance needs of various insurance entities as well as how reinsurers are responding to those needs both from a Property as well as Casualty perspective.
Source:
2007 Spring Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Eli Harari
Panelists:
Joy Takahashi, Sean Mooney, Linda Johnson
Starting Up and Maintaining a Captive Insurer
This session will provide an overview of why corporations form captive insurance companies and key steps that must be taken to establish the company. The decision for a corporation to form a captive is generally thought of as strictly a financial one. Cost savings considerations include seeking alternative risk management in the face of exorbitant hard-market premiums, lower inherent expenses associated with claims handling and administration, and, of course, an improved tax position. Panelists will expand on these financial issues facing a corporation’s risk management and also provide other factors that are not financial which might affect the decision to establish a captive insurer.
Source:
2007 Spring Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Eli Harari
Panelists:
Robert Walling, William Bartlett
Retention Modeling - How Do I Start Preparing Today?
Two topics receiving growing attention in the actuarial and insurance world are Optimized Pricing and Lifetime Values. Both of these areas require knowing more about retention and what drives it. While it may be a while before many companies are truly ready to tackle the problem of retention modeling, now is the time to begin considering what would go into a good model, and collecting and/or preparing your data so that you can be ready to model retention when you do decide to look closely at Optimized Pricing and/or Lifetime Values.
The panel will discuss some of the first steps that should be considered for retention modeling, and how you can begin your preparations now.
Source:
2007 Spring Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Baji Bhagavatula
Panelists:
Robert Weishaar, John Emig, Craig Avitabile
Recent New York Workers Compensation Reform
Shortly after taking office as Governor of New York, Eliot Spitzer signed landmark legislation in March of 2007 that fundamentally reforms the New York workers compensation system. The new legislation increases benefits for injured workers, establishes return-to-work incentives, establishes several fee schedules, attempts to curtail fraud, and questions the future role of the New York Compensation Insurance Rating Board.
This panel will give several perspectives on the new legislation. Background on the political and social climate leading to the change will be provided, followed by a discussion of the changes, the implementation process, and the anticipated effects on businesses, injured workers, medical providers, and insurance companies writing worker compensation in New York. We will wrap up the session with some initial estimates of the reform's cost and pricing implications.
Source:
2007 Spring Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Baji Bhagavatula
Panelists:
Martin Heagen, Joe Treacy, Michael Moran
The New NCCI Hazard Groups
The NCCI Hazard Groups aggregate workers compensation class codes with similar claim severity distributions. The Excess Loss Factors in the NCCI Retrospective Rating Manual are calculated separately by Hazard Group. NCCI recently revised its mapping of class codes into Hazard Groups. Now, partitions of the class codes into either 4 or 7 Hazard Groups are available.
This session will review background and describe the changes contained in the Hazard Group Item Filing B-1403, along with subsequent annual updates, and the impact of this new filing.
Source:
2007 Spring Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Baji Bhagavatula
Panelists:
Jose Couret, Jonathan Evans
Loss Reserve Ranges in Practice
According to the Actuarial Review, two of the top three 2006 news stories with implications for casualty actuaries related to loss reserve ranges, and reserve variability. Discussions of reserve ranges are moving rapidly from the technical back room, into the Board room and onto Wall Street, with a broadening audience becoming increasingly sensitized to uncertainty around loss reserves, and needing to understand the sources and implications of this uncertainty. Accordingly, this panel will focus on practical business perspectives on loss reserve ranges, rather than on the mathematics of quantifying the ranges. An overview of company practices and issues in the determination and presentation of loss reserve ranges will set the stage for a regulatory perspective and a case study of how one insurance company is approaching this issue.
Source:
2007 Spring Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Mark Allaben
Panelists:
Thomas Mount, Ronald Greco
Hot Claims Topics: Casualty Impacted Emerging Issues Management
Emerging Issues can be defined as trends or events that are rapidly gaining in impact and importance for insurance companies but which may be beyond the bounds of our existing underwriting and risk engineering best practices. They may also be beyond our actuarial calculations in terms of scale, frequency and timing. These issues may present both threats and/or opportunities. This session will explore three areas: overview of emerging issues management, casualty impacted natural catastrophe, and benzene litigation.
* When the past is no longer a reliable predictor of the future, we may have an emerging issue. Emerging issues can be hard to identify and address without a formal process in place. We will begin with a discussion of actual emerging issues facing us, today, to illustrate the practical applications of an emerging issues lifecycle process.
* Since September 11 and then following Hurricane Katrina, the industry has seen indications that third party bodily injury as well as property damage claims may be asserted against a wide range of potential defendants. This portion of the session will explore the potential emergence of casualty as a catastrophe impacted line by reviewing the history of casualty claims following catastrophes and discussing the future of third party claims in catastrophic eventss.
* Following in the footsteps of other industrial exposure based litigation, plaintiffs are now filing suits alleging that they contracted various blood diseases including acute myelogenous leukemia (AML) and multiple myeloma from occupational exposures to aromatic hydrocarbon-containing chemicals, solvents, paints and/or fuels. This presentation will discuss profiles of typical defendants, the attendant issue of insurance coverage, and current views on causation. It will then contrast this litigation with waves of mass litigation that preceded it including asbestos, silica and welding fumes.
Source:
2007 Spring Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Mark Allaben
Panelists:
Jason Schupp, Steve Knutson, William Bauer
Homeowners Insurance in Florida - The "Citizens" View
The Florida Homeowners general session (Homeowners Insurance in Florida - How Big is the Availability Problem? Is There a Fair Solution?) will cover a broad range of topics specific to this state and line.
Florida Governor Charlie Crist calls Citizens Property Insurance Corporation, the residual market property insurer, the "People's Company". This concurrent session will explore the specific recent legislative changes in Florida related to Citizens from both the special and regular legislative sessions - are the people of Florida helped on balance by these changes?
Our panelists will outline the legislative changes, their impact on the solvency, efficiency, and growth trajectory of the residual market insurer, and their effects on the economics of the private market and its participating insurers and reinsurers. Short and long run consequences will be considered. Our panelists will represent both the consumer protection and free market view points and will shed light on the big picture - are we any closer to solving the availability and affordability problems with Florida property insurance?
Throughout, the role of actuaries in educating political leaders, policy advisors, and the general public will be discussed by our panelists who have seen the making of insurance laws and regulations first-hand.
Source:
2007 Spring Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Joanne Spalla
Panelists:
John Rollins, Judith Durdan
The End of Free Sharing in the Insurance Industry
Intellectual capital is the main value actuaries bring to their respective employers. Historically, the Casualty Actuarial Society has operated in a very collaborative fashion and actuaries have freely shared information in various publications in an effort to improve the Society as a whole. In a landmark case in 1998, the U.S. Court of Appeals Federal Circuit reinterpreted the U.S. patent laws to include business processes as patentable subject matter.
As a result of that decision, there has been a proliferation of patents within the P&C insurance industry. Everyone from major carriers to independent actuaries are attempting to patent their new insurance inventions. Those that succeed may be able to dominate new markets. Those that pay no attention to this developing trend will be relegated to selling old forms of coverage or licensing the innovative new ideas of others.
This panel will debate the pros and cons of this movement for the P&C industry, discuss how companies' actions may need to change, and comment on the implications of patents on CAS education.
Source:
2007 Spring Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Joanne Spalla
Panelists:
Donald Bashline, Gerald DePardo
Dynamic Risk Modeling: Completed Research & Project Update
Dynamic Risk Modeling has developed from the application of Enterprise Risk Management's holistic perspective and broader scope of industries to the technical tools of Dynamic Financial Analysis. The CAS Dynamic Risk Modeling Committee (DRMC) has combined these valuable elements with the rarely tapped resource of truly dynamic modeling. Such modeling is based on the familiar stochastic processes, but it also includes corporate reactions to modeled events, creating a powerful system for dynamic modeling of enterprise risks.
This panel will discuss recent research and projects that have been completed under the guidance of the DRMC and its working parties. and provide updates to other projects. These subjects will include the first edition of the Dynamic Risk Modeling Handbook, a call for papers to Review and Compare Rating Agency Capital Models, and the Loss Simulation Model Working Party.
Source:
2007 Spring Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Suzanne Black
Panelists:
Thomas Conway, Robert Bear
Data Quality and the Impact on Cat Modeling Results
The importance of accurate exposure data in ensuring the accuracy of CAT model output is now recognized by most insurers. While many companies have begun to improve the accuracy of replacement cost estimates, coding of risks and geocoding of addresses, there are still other critical data elements that can have a significant impact on model results.
In this panel discussion, catastrophe modelers will address the most important data quality factors for their catastrophe models and highlight how various levels of data quality can affect the results for the same portfolio.
Source:
2007 Spring Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Christopher Steinbach
Panelists:
David LaLonde, Hesaam Aslani
Assessment of Target Capital for General Insurance Firms
(A paper by Andrew Hitchcox, Ian Hinder, Allan Kaufman, Trevor Maynard, Andrew Smith and Martin White which was presented to the Institute of Actuaries in November.)
The paper discusses how to put financial economics views of risk and actuarial modeling of insurance into a common practical framework. It describes the different approaches to setting the target capital for a general insurance firm, and how to reconcile them. It describes the approaches to modeling the cost of capital, and the available stock market data to support them. Finally, it describes how the financial economics concept of 'frictional costs' can be applied in a practical way to set target underwriting margins.
The paper will be of interest to all general insurance actuaries involved in the use of capital modelling for steering the firm's overall financial targets. It will also be of interest to actuaries outside the general insurance field for demonstrating the connections between actuarial and financial economic approaches to risk.
Source:
2007 Spring Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Panelists:
Allan Kaufman
A Presentation About Presentations: Creating the "Dynamic Actuary"
Most actuaries are regularly called upon to present complex concepts to an audience. The more that actuaries can improve upon their presentation skills, the more their visibility within an organization - primary company, reinsurer, consulting firm, brokerage house - increases accordingly. Today, actuaries are counted on to present actionable information to CEOs, CFOs, CROs, and board of directors, in addition to clients and peers at industry conferences.
Like many business people in general, some actuaries are averse to making presentations, or lack the experience or confidence to be effective speakers. This session will help actuaries devise a game plan for confronting the fear of “performing” in front of an audience. The goal is to help presenters build confidence by identifying individual strengths in communication skills and capitalizing on them for future presentations.
Specifically, this session will help individuals identify and meld their personal and professional strengths and traits to create themselves into the “Dynamic Actuary.”
Source:
2007 Spring Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Christopher Steinbach
Panelists:
Robert Morand
Applications of "R" in Actuarial Modeling
"R" is a freely available open source computer language designed for statistical computing. This session will start with an introduction to "R", including where to get it and how to use it. Next it will illustrate some actuarial applications of "R" in the areas of predictive modeling for insurance pricing and reserving.
Source:
2007 Spring Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Christopher Steinbach
Panelists:
James Guszcza
Actuarial Malpractice: Guide for a Practicing Actuary
The term "Actuarial Malpractice" is, unfortunately, no longer a novelty.
Lawsuits against actuaries are becoming more and more common today. Is our profession ready for this environment? What does a practicing actuary owe to the public, his employer, his profession and himself? How does one stay out of trouble?
This panel will address this topic from several different perspectives; practical advice from the perspective of Professional Standards, a view point of an attorney involved in defending actuaries, and words of caution from a fellow actuary.
Source:
2007 Spring Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Christopher Steinbach
Panelists:
Ronald Lepinskas, Thomas Griffin
