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STAY TUNED! If you are anticipating additional search filters by attribute and level to align with the CAS Capability Model, it is coming later this Summer. As the CAS begins to code recorded sessions by specific attributes and levels (starting with the 2023 Annual Meeting), these will be tagged in the CAS database of presentations going forward and should be searchable.
But you may use the Capability Model now to help you identify topics. For example, if you want to move up one level under the content area “Functional Expertise,” you may search topics in the particular functional area to expand your knowledge.
Recorded content is searchable by Capability Model attribute and level in the CAS Online Library.
Dimension Reduction
A simple predictive model should be favored for implementation over a complex model. Predictive modeling creates a framework where the actuary can comprehensively study a large amount of data from numerous sources, and variables with many distinct values. As a profession we would like to understand all of the underlying drivers of losses. However, it is not possible or practical to include all possible variables, or all possible values of a variable, in the final rating model. This session will discuss different approaches and reasons to reduce the number of variables or reduce the number of values for modeling.
Source:
2007 Fall SIS- Predictive Modeling
Type:
concurrent
Panelists:
David Otto, Robert Sanche
Data Quality-Raising Your Actuarial IQ (mproving Information Quality)
Predictive modeling, Sarbanes-Oxley, and other recent developments have renewed the focus on the quality of information. This session starts with some striking examples of the cost of poor information quality, defines the concept of data quality, and then gives tips and examples on how to pursue it, including how actuaries can be proactive in improving data quality. The emphasis will be on:
1. Techniques that should be easy for most actuaries and analysts to apply right away.
2. Aspects of data quality that actuaries are best able to fulfill.
This session is drawn from the work of the CAS Data Management Educational Materials Working Party.
Predictive modeling often coincides with the first time insurance data is looked at very closely. This is often overwhelming, as unknown data problems are sometimes uncovered during the process. This presentation will talk about common insurance data problems, how they can be identified before the modeling begins, and how they could possibly be solved.
Source:
2007 Fall SIS- Predictive Modeling
Type:
concurrent
Panelists:
Louise Francis, Martin Ellingsworth, Aleksey Popelyukhin, Robert Campbell
Credit Scoring Update
The use of credit in insurance continues to be a topic that is hotly debated by insurers, consumers, regulators, and other federal and state government officials. A major challenge for the industry is that there is not an understanding of why there is an association between scores and loss propensity. The panel will discuss a paper by Brokett and Golden that deals with this issue, "Biological and Psychobehavioral Correlates of Credit Scores and Automobile Insurance Losses: Toward an Explication of Why Credit Scoring Works."
The second part of the session will cover the much anticipated and recently released Federal Trade Commission study of auto insurance scoring and its effect on different segments of the population. The study is based upon insurance data provided via the cooperation of three major trade associations, and data from the Social Security Administration and third-party data providers. A brief summary of reactions to the study by interested parties will also be covered.
Source:
2007 Fall SIS- Predictive Modeling
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
David Langdon
Panelists:
Patrick Brockett, Linda Golden, Jesse Leary
Commercial Lines Predictive Modeling for Workers Compensation
Predictive modeling is proving to be as successful in commercial lines as it has been in personal lines. Many of the challenges that face commercial lines modelers, however, are different and must be addressed properly in order for the results to be reliable.
This session will discuss the major challenges in workers compensation modeling, from data to deployment, and will offer approaches to address these challenges.
Source:
2007 Fall SIS- Predictive Modeling
Type:
concurrent
Panelists:
Cheng-Sheng Wu, David Otto
Commercial Lines Predictive Modeling- BOP
In an attempt to replicate the successful applications in the personal lines industry, the commercial lines industry is speeding up its adoption of predictive modeling. This session will review the current predictive modeling development for small commercial risks. The session will also discuss the underwriting and pricing challenges for small commercial risks and how predictive modeling, such as scoring models, can address these needs. The efforts and challenges involved in building predictive models will be described, including data issues and analysis of models.
Source:
2007 Fall SIS- Predictive Modeling
Type:
concurrent
Panelists:
Ali Ishaq, Kiera Doster
Commercial Auto Predictive Modeling: The Same and Completely Different
The commercial automobile insurance product line offers a unique predictive modeling opportunity. On one hand, many of the factors and data sources developed for personal auto can be used in commercial auto. Credit scores, vehicle identification numbers (VINs), motor vehicle records (MVRs), and territory refinement all make the transition to commercial auto quite well. On the other hand, the unique characteristics of commercial auto risks offer some new opportunities. Factors such as industry classification, trailer type, and truck-to-car ratio all contribute to the dynamic world of commercial auto predictive modeling.
Source:
2007 Fall SIS- Predictive Modeling
Type:
concurrent
Panelists:
Robert Walling, Brett Nunes
Advanced Modeling Techniques
This session will explore a variety of useful techniques not covered in other sessions. A common theme will be reflecting nonlinear patterns and variable interactions in ones model. The session will feature a discussion of tree-based modeling, as exemplified by the "Classification And Regression Tree" (CART) algorithm. While CART can be used as a predictive modeling tool, it can also be used for variable selection, variable binning, exploratory data analysis, data visualization, and model analysis. Additional topics to be covered will include Generalized Additive Models (GAMs), Neural Networks, and MARS (Multiple Additive Regression Splines). Emphasis will be placed more on concepts and working intuition than mathematical formalism. The techniques' relative advantages and disadvantages will be discussed, and relationships of the various techniques with regression and Generalized Linear Models will be pointed out.
Source:
2007 Fall SIS- Predictive Modeling
Type:
concurrent
Panelists:
James Guszcza, Serhat Guven
General Session/Keynote Speaker
Dr. John Elder heads a data mining consulting team with offices in Charlottesville, VA, and Washington, DC. Founded in 1995, Elder Research, Inc., focuses on scientific and commercial applications of pattern discovery and optimization, including stock selection, image recognition, medical text mining, biometric identification, drug efficacy, credit scoring, cross-selling, investment timing, and fraud detection.
Dr. Elder obtained a BS and MEE in electrical engineering from Rice University, and a Ph.D. in systems engineering from the University of Virginia, where he's recently been an adjunct professor, teaching optimization. Prior to a decade leading ERI, he spent five years in aerospace defense consulting, four years heading research at an investment management firm, and two years in Rice's computational & applied mathematics department.
Dr. Elder is an author of innovative mining tools and is active on statistics, engineering, and finance boards, as well as with conferences in these fields. A frequent keynote conference speaker, he will serve as general chair of the 2009 Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining conference in Paris. Dr. Elder's courses on data analysis techniques - taught at dozens of universities, companies, and government labs - are noted for their clarity and effectiveness. Dr. Elder was honored to serve five years on a panel appointed by the president to guide technology for the National Security Agency.
Source:
2007 Fall SIS- Predictive Modeling
Type:
general,keynote
Moderators:
David Langdon
Report of the CAS Tail Factor Loss Simulation Model Working Parties
The CAS Committee on Reserves formed a research working party dealing with a specific area not widely addressed in the literature - Tail Factors. The Tail Factor Working Party focused on identifying all tail factor methods contained within CAS literature as well as identifying methods currently being used, but not contained within the literature. The working party tested various methods with real data in order to judge which were feasible to use under what circumstances, and will discuss its findings and present the completed paper during the session.
The CAS Dynamic Risk Modeling Committee formed a research working party to create a public loss simulation model that can be used to simulate claim data. The Loss Simulation Model Working Party expects the simulated data to be useful for future research on the effectiveness of different methods and models to predict outcomes. The working party has created a prototype of the simulation model that it will present at the meeting and will be announcing the first "DRMC Challenge" to see if simulated data can be distinguished from real data.
Source:
2007 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Wayne Keller
Panelists:
Steven Herman
Keywords:
Reserving, Simluation, Model Testing
CAS Data Management and Information Educational Materials Working Party Update: Raising your Actuarial IQ (Improving Information Quality
Sarbanes-Oxley, predictive modeling, and other recent developments have renewed the focus on the quality of information. This session starts with some striking examples of the cost of poor information quality, defines the concept, and then gives tips and examples on how to pursue it. The emphasis will be on:
* Techniques that should be easy for most actuaries and analysts to apply right away
* Aspects of data quality that actuaries are best able to fulfill
This session is drawn from the work of the CAS Data Management Educational Materials Working Party (Research Working Party 5).
Source:
2007 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Wayne Keller
Panelists:
Aleksey Popelyukhin, Jane Taylor
Keywords:
Data Management, Information Educational Materials, Actuarial IQ
Testing Assumptions Underlying Estimates of Loss Reserves
Standard actuarial reserving techniques are important tools for every practicing actuary. Interest is increasing in the use of more formalized reserving models as well. Whether or not the user thinks of them as such, the standard techniques can themselves be considered models of loss development. Inherent within these models are implicit assumptions. This session will discuss the identification and testing of these assumptions in the interest of improving the use of such standard techniques, as well as to spur interest in the development of other loss development models.
Source:
2007 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Wayne Keller
Panelists:
Christopher Gross
Keywords:
Testing Assumptions Underlying Estimates of Loss Reserves
Reserve Variability Modeling
Modeling a single line of business to develop a distribution of possible outcomes may be sufficient for many types of analyses, but often a more complete analysis will require the analysis of multiple lines of business. Moving from a single line to multiple lines will require the inclusion of new issues to the analysis, such as correlation between lines, but it will also open up more uses for the results, such as corporate capital requirements and capital allocation. During this session, we will review some of the popular models used for estimating reserve distributions and how correlations can be measured and incorporated into these models to extend each model from a single line to multiple lines. We will also review how the results for multiple lines can be used for overall capital requirements, capital allocation, reinsurance pricing, and other applications.
Source:
2007 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Wayne Keller
Panelists:
Glenn Meyers, Mark Shapland
Keywords:
Reserving, Reserve Variability, Ranges, Distributions, ERM, DFA
Modeling Multiple Lines of Business
We describe a modeling framework that relates both the trends and the variability about the trends for multiple incremental loss development arrays. Relationships between arrays involve both process correlation and parameter correlation. Clusters of lines of business are selected where lines are correlated within a cluster but not between clusters. An optimal composite model forecasts lognormal distributions for each cell in each loss development array, including the correlations between cells within an array and between arrays. These induce correlations between forecasts for each pair of accident years, calendar years, and aggregates. (This talk assumes the attendees are familiar with the material in the prior session, “Reserve Ranges, Confidence Intervals and Prediction Intervals,” or the paper “Best Estimates for Reserves,” Proceedings of the Casualty Actuarial Society, 2000).
Source:
2007 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Panelists:
David Odell, Glen Barnet
Keywords:
Multiple Lines of Business
Reserve Ranges, Confidence Intervals, and Prediction Intervals
Uncertainty and variability are two distinct concepts that should not be used interchangeably. We explain the difference between these two fundamental concepts with simple games of chance. There is also a fundamental statistical difference between a confidence interval and a prediction interval. These statistical concepts will also be explained in the context of loss development arrays. When creating or designing a confidence interval or a prediction interval, assumptions should be explicit and easily interpretable and must be related explicitly to the volatility in the past. A good model represents the volatility in the data in a succinct manner. The loss development array is regarded as a sample of size of one, alternatively, a sample path, from the fitted model. An analogous example is fitting a severity distribution – the fitted distribution did not create the severities, but the severities can be regarded as a random sample from the fitted distribution. The same applies to a well-fitted probabilistic model to a loss development array (that is multidimensional).
Source:
2007 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Wayne Keller
Panelists:
David Odell
Keywords:
Reserve Ranges, Confidence Intervals, Prediction Intervals
Regression Models and Loss Reserving
Casualty actuaries have begun to turn from deterministic methods to stochastic models. Deterministic reserving methods, such as the chain ladder, Bornhuetter-Ferguson, and Cape Cod, have been, to varying degrees, either blended or replaced with stochastic models, especially with regression models. This session will show how stochastic reserving relates to and moves beyond deterministic reserving, the progress made to date in applying regression models to loss reserving, and what progress remains to be made. Simple examples will illustrate the theory and will suggest how to apply it to loss reserving.
Source:
2007 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Panelists:
Scott Weinstein, Leigh Halliwell
Keywords:
Regression Models, Loss Reserving
The Language of Uncertainty: What Color is you copula?
Without getting too technical, this session will review a few of the well-known methods that actuaries are using these days to put confidence intervals around their point estimates. As we stroll through various examples, we will expose the annoyingly technical stochastic terminology for the simple concepts they truly are. Such terms include, but are not limited to, the following top ten: Mack, bootstrap, parameter risk, process risk, tail variability, residuals, outliers, positive-definite correlation matrices, copulas, and that ever-elusive "reasonable range." Audience participation is encouraged. Judgment is required.
Source:
2007 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Panelists:
Daniel Murphy, Mark Proska
Keywords:
Uncertainty
CRUSAP Report
The goal of the CRUSAP Report was to identify the actuarial needs of the public, determine whether those needs are being met, and propose action to meet any unmet or undetermined actuarial needs. How does this report affect the opining or reserving actuary? This session will encourage an open dialogue on the findings and conclusions of the report on the critical questions: "How should the actuary be educated and trained to meet the actuarial needs of the public?", "How can the actuary and public communicate with each other?", "What ethical and professional standards should apply to the actuary?", and "What degree of oversight and regulation of the actuary is in the public interest, and by whom?"
Source:
2007 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Smitesh Dave
Panelists:
Roosevelt Mosley, Michael Toothman
Keywords:
CRUSAP
Value-Added Reserving
Reserving studies are not only used by management in determining the appropriate liabilities for financial reporting. Increasingly, senior executives are relying on these studies to inform decision making on underwriting issues, claims strategy, and capital management. At the same time, actuaries need to incorporate input from other disciplines, such as underwriting and claims, in order to more accurately reflect the impact of company actions on development patterns and loss ratio trends. This session will highlight aspects of a best practice approach to actuarial reserving studies as well as metrics and ways of presenting results to management that maximizes the value to the organization.
Source:
2007 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Panelists:
Jeffrey Carlson
Keywords:
Value-Added Reserving
Emerging Mass Tort Claims
This session will explore three emerging areas of mass torts from a claims perspective, including what defendant profile and types of insureds will be at risk, which time periods will be affected, which policies will be triggered, and which layers of coverage will generally be affected.
Welding Rods
Can welding rod fumes cause neurological diseases such as Parkinson’s? At issue is whether manganese, a chemical element found in vitamin supplements, tea, nuts, and grain as well as in the fumes from burning welding rods, can at high exposures lead to tremors or shaking, poor balance, and difficulty walking and swallowing. Companies that make welding equipment argue that any link between fumes and Parkinson’s has not been established.
Lead Paint
Unable to prevail under product liability law, plaintiffs’ attorneys in the late 1990s began filing public nuisance claims against lead paint manufacturers. Recently, in Rhode Island, a jury found that the cumulative presence of lead pigment in paints and coatings on buildings throughout Rhode Island constitutes a public nuisance and that Millennium Holdings, NL Industries, and Sherwin-Williams caused or substantially contributed to the creation of the public nuisance and should be ordered to abate the public nuisance.
Benzene
We will discuss the emerging issue of benzene litigation. Following in the footsteps of other industrial exposure-based litigation, plaintiffs are now filing suits alleging that they contracted various blood diseases, including acute myelogenous leukemia (AML) and multiple myeloma, from occupational exposures to aromatic hydrocarbon-containing chemicals, solvents, paints, and/or fuels.
Source:
2007 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Smitesh Dave
Panelists:
William Brauer, Peter Suranyi
Keywords:
Emerging Mass Tort
Update on Terrorism and State Property Catastrophe Solutions
TRIA's extension expires on December 31, 2007, and Congress and the Bush Administration currently do not agree on the extent and duration of a possible further renewal of the program that was designed to facilitate continued normal functioning of the economy even considering the threat of terrorism. The American Academy of Actuaries has estimated that terrorists using weapons of mass destruction could cause insurable losses in excess of $700 billion. Controversial issues include whether insurers should be mandated to offer coverage against terrorist use of NBCR (nuclear, biological, chemical, radiological) weapons and whether any extension should again be short term or should be ten years or more to allow for long-term planning. Michael McCarter has been chair of the AAA Terrorism Risk Insurance Subgroup and will discuss the political and actuarial issues that affect consideration of the further renewal of TRIA.
As regards natural catastrophe, post Katrina, many state legislatures have been revisiting their own state catastrophe insurance solutions. With many carriers decreasing their exposure along the coasts, state residual markets, FAIR Plan and Windstorm Pools have been growing. These insurers of last resort have been involved in reexamining how they address catastrophes. Fred Strauss will give us an update on state activities as well as his views on the general trends regarding the issues faced by these coastal residual markets.
Lastly, our moderator will discuss some of the challenges facing reserving actuaries dealing with these types of catastrophes and provide some actual development from past catastrophes.
Source:
2007 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Smitesh Dave
Panelists:
Michael McCarter, Frederick Strauss
Keywords:
Terrorism, Catastrophe
Updating the Berquist-Sherman Paper: 30 Years Later
What if Berquist and Sherman were to update their paper? The authors talk about the key changes such as:
* Asking new questions for department heads;
* Identifying important nuances in adjusting paid losses for shifts in claims disposed rates and in adjusting incurred losses for changes in case reserve adequacy;
* Scrutinizing managements representations concerning operational changes;
* Testing the reasonableness and integrity of the claims count data; and
* Adding more diagnostic tests.
Sherman will also offer practice insights based on his service as an expert witness in a number of lawsuits against actuaries regarding applications of the paper.
Source:
2007 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Smitesh Dave
Panelists:
Richard Sherman, Joseph Thorne
Keywords:
Berquist-Sherman
Current Issues and Trends in Medical Malpractice
This session will focus on the most recent trends in the medical malpractice market, and the impact such trends would have on reserve and funding studies being prepared by actuaries. Also, the results of recent industry benchmarking analyses will be summarized.
Source:
2007 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Harry Shuford
Panelists:
Erik Johnson, Jeremy Brigham
Keywords:
Medical Malpractice
Personal Lines Integration of Reserving, Planning and Pricing
The increasing proliferation of personal lines products highlights the need for effective integration of the reserving actuary with other functions. Several personal lines actuaries for major U.S. insurers will discuss how these areas work together to produce more controlled reserve environments. The actuaries will include a discussion of reserve methodologies that bridge the gap between reserving and pricing considerations.
Source:
2007 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Tony DiDonato
Panelists:
Elizabeth DePaolo, David McLaughry
Keywords:
Personal Lines, Reserving, Planning, Pricing
Personal Automobile Insurance Reserving
Personal automobile is a critical line of business and a significant driver of reserves and financial results for most insurers. Economic forces, law changes, and judicial decisions often dramatically affect the reserves for this line both prospectively and retrospectively. This panel will analyze and discuss several notable factors affecting current reserving processes.
Source:
2007 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Tony DiDonato
Panelists:
John Forney
Keywords:
Personal Automobile Insurance Reserving
Workers Compensation Reform Impacts on Loss Development Patterns
The recent workers compensation reforms in California are having a dramatic impact on pure premiums and loss development patterns. While small changes in reforms may not have any material impacts on loss development, significant reforms affecting the number of chiropractor visits, presumption of care, and permanent disability schedules can significantly change the loss development patterns. Our speakers will talk about the types of benefit reforms most likely to have a dramatic impact on development patterns and show some historical evidence of these changes in a number of states. This session will present a number of ways to deal with these issues, including practical solutions as well as statistical modeling. The recent workers compensation reforms in California are having a dramatic impact on pure premiums and loss development patterns. While small changes in reforms may not have any material impacts on loss development, significant reforms affecting the number of chiropractor visits, presumption of care, and permanent disability schedules can significantly change the loss development patterns. Our speakers will talk about the types of benefit reforms most likely to have a dramatic impact on development patterns and show some historical evidence of these changes in a number of states. This session will present a number of ways to deal with these issues, including practical solutions as well as statistical modeling. Topics to be addressed include calendar year effects, medical cost caps, indemnity limits and duration, escalating reforms, and others.
Source:
2007 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Tony DiDonato
Panelists:
Frank Schmid, Michelle Sheng, Timothy Wisecraver
Keywords:
Workers Compensation Reform
