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STAY TUNED! If you are anticipating additional search filters by attribute and level to align with the CAS Capability Model, it is coming later this Summer. As the CAS begins to code recorded sessions by specific attributes and levels (starting with the 2023 Annual Meeting), these will be tagged in the CAS database of presentations going forward and should be searchable.
But you may use the Capability Model now to help you identify topics. For example, if you want to move up one level under the content area “Functional Expertise,” you may search topics in the particular functional area to expand your knowledge.
Recorded content is searchable by Capability Model attribute and level in the CAS Online Library.
What to do when you cannot use credit
Credit based insurance scores have become an important part of many insurer's rating and underwriting plans, and can result in significant rate impacts. However, given the regulatory and public scrutiny of the use of credit information, there is a concern of what would happen if insurers could no longer use credit. This is actually the case in several jurisdictions, and insurers are coping with this reality. This session will discuss some of the ways insurers have dealt with not being able to use insurance score information, and also offer additional suggestions of how insurers might address this situation.
Source:
2006 Fall SIS- Predictive Modeling
Type:
concurrent
Panelists:
Roosevelt Mosley, Keith Toney
Model Validation
Modern computing power has greatly enhanced the complexity of statistical models that one can attempt to fit to observed data. Used in an indiscriminate fashion, almost any statistical technique can end up modeling noise, therefore predicting poorly. Validation (including cross-validation) techniques will be introduced that can and should be applied regardless of the underlying statistical model employed. One key goal of these straightforward techniques is to avoid models that "overfit" the data and thus will not generalize well to future data.
Source:
2006 Fall SIS- Predictive Modeling
Type:
concurrent
Panelists:
Glenn Meyers, Christophe Monsour
Advanced Modeling Techniques
This session will explore a variety of useful techniques not covered in other sessions. The session will begin with a discussion of tree-based modeling, as exemplified by the "Classification And Regression Tree" (CART) algorithm. While CART can be used as a predictive modeling tool, it can also be used for variable selection, variable binning, exploratory data analysis, data visualization, and model analysis. Additional topics to be covered will include Generalized Additive Models (GAMs), Neural Networks, and MARS (Multiple Additive Regression Splines). Relations of the various techniques with regression and Generalized Linear Models, as well as the methods' advantages and disadvantages, will be pointed out. Finally, a case study comparing the performance of all of the methods on a single dataset will be provided.
Source:
2006 Fall SIS- Predictive Modeling
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Amy Bouska
Panelists:
James Guszcza, Serhat Guven
Techniques for Dimension Reduction
Predictive modeling creates a framework where the actuary can comprehensively study large amounts of data from numerous sources. As a profession we would like to understand all of the underlying drivers of losses, however, it is not always possible, or even practical, to include all possible variables in the final rating plan. A thorough analysis can use different techniques to consider all of the different variables and it should provide the user with statistics and outputs to decide about the best structure. This session will discuss different approaches and reasons to reduce the number of variables or combine variables. It will also talk about the pros and cons of each approach, like stepwise regression, as well as the impact of forced dimension reduction (regulatory constraints). Ways to compare different models and the effectiveness of the new structure will also be discussed.
Source:
2006 Fall SIS- Predictive Modeling
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Mark Littman
Panelists:
David Otto, Bob Sanche
GLM III: Advanced Modeling Strategy
GLM III will cover additional refinements such as the pros and cons of modeling directly on loss costs using the Tweedie distribution, the use of splines within a GLM framework, and the use of the offset term to constrain models. This session will demonstrate how to use binomial models or offset terms to use model results from a stable claim type when measuring a related but more volatile claim type, how to combine GLMs across multiple claim types, and how to investigate the appropriateness of a multiplicative model structure.
Source:
2006 Fall SIS- Predictive Modeling
Type:
concurrent
Panelists:
Duncan Anderson
GLM II: Basic Modeling Strategy
GLM I provided the case for using GLMs and some basic GLM theory. GLM II will be a practical session outlining basic modeling strategy. The discussion will cover topics such as overall modeling strategy, selecting an appropriate error structure and link function, simplifying the GLM (i.e., excluding variables, grouping levels, fitting curves), complicating the GLM (i.e., adding interactions), and validating the final model. The session will discuss diagnostics that help test the selections made.
Source:
2006 Fall SIS- Predictive Modeling
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Mark Littman
Panelists:
Geoffrey Werner
GLM 1: Introduction to Generalized Linear Models
The session will start with a brief review of traditional linear regression that has been taught and widely applied for decades. The session leaders will explain how generalized linear models naturally arise as some of the restrictive assumptions of linear regression are relaxed. GLMs can model a wide range of phenomena including frequencies, severities, loss ratios, and the probability that a customer will renew a policy, to name just a few. The session will emphasize intuition and insight rather than mathematical calculations, which are handled by software these days anyway.
Source:
2006 Fall SIS- Predictive Modeling
Type:
concurrent
Panelists:
Arthur Gurevitch, Louis Francis, C. Dean
Baseball: It's All in the Data
Roughly 20 years ago our keynote speaker, John Dewan, FSA, left a successful life actuarial career to pursue his dream of developing the most comprehensive database in sports. John is currently the owner of Baseball Info Solutions, which specializes in collecting, interpreting, and disseminating in-depth baseball statistics. Previously John was President and CEO of STATS, Inc. which was recognized by Inc. Magazine as one of America's 500 fastest growing companies prior to Fox Broadcasting purchase of the company in 1999. John was named to Crain's Chicago Business list of key technology players in Chicago and serves as the "Stat of the Week" expert for WSCR (The Score), an all sports radio station in Chicago.
Source:
2006 Fall SIS- Predictive Modeling
Type:
general
Proceedings Paper Presentation
This paper presents an analysis of medical payments based on 160,000 permanently disabled claimants-for 77 accident years. It introduces a method for utilizing incremental payment data prior to the standard triangle to extend development factors beyond the end of the triangle (for any casualty line).
Source:
2006 Annual Meeting
Type:
Paper
Moderators:
Mark Littman
2006 Reserve Call Paper Presentation
While the actuarial literature devoted to stochastic loss reserving has been developing at an impressive rate, much of this literature has been devoted to the statistical analysis of summarized loss triangles. This restriction limits the benefits that modern statistical techniques can bring to the subject of loss reserving. This paper will sketch one possible framework for estimating future claims payments using claim-level data. The first part of the paper will discuss the use of covariates (or "predictive variables") to improve one's estimates of future payments, especially in cases where the mix of business being analyzed has changed over time. The second part of the paper will describe how the bootstrapping technique can be applied to claim-level data to estimate reserve variability.
Source:
2006 Annual Meeting
Type:
Paper
Moderators:
Russel Greig
2006 Hachemeister Award Paper
This paper presents a simple method for measuring loss reserve uncertainty - the variability of potential differences between actual and estimated future loss payments -- that is easily implemented with a spreadsheet model, that relies on data available for all US insurers and all lines of business, and that makes relatively few easily accepted assumptions.
Source:
2006 Annual Meeting
Type:
Paper
Moderators:
Pete Marotta
Strategic Thinking/Mental Toughness Program
The second part will feature mental toughness and emotional intelligence; ingredients that are essential in today's demanding business environment. This part of the presentation will focus on how to think under stress, overcoming personal obstacles, principles of assertive communication, how to provide effective feedback, harness will power and much more.
Source:
2006 Annual Meeting
Type:
Workshop
Moderators:
Pete Marotta
Strategic Thinking/Mental Toughness Program
This program is designed to motivate, inspire and demonstrate to people how to use strategic thinking in their daily tasks in an effective and simple manner.
Source:
2006 Annual Meeting
Type:
Workshop
Moderators:
Pete Marotta
ERM II: Risk Load, Profitability Measures, and Enterprise Risk Management
The panel will discuss the interrelated pricing issues of profitability measurement, risk load, and enterprise risk management. Attendees will be given two related, leading edge, practical methods for integrating pricing (or hedging or plan portfolio composition) with an internal risk model, which is a core ERM component. The methods provide valuable insights into pricing individual risks, portfolio management, and reinsurance purchasing decisions.
Source:
2006 Annual Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Panelists:
Donald Mango, Robert Bear
Keywords:
ERM II, Risk Load, Profitability Measures, and Enterprise Risk Management
ERM II: Enterprise Risk Management & Rating Agencies
One of the major forces behind the recent emphasis on Enterprise Risk Management is coming from various rating agencies, and their encouragement of companies to incorporate ERM into their regular work. This session will give an overview of Standard & Poor's new initiative and how companies will be assessed in five key areas: risk-management culture, risk controls, extreme-event management, risk and capital models, and strategic risk management.
Source:
2006 Annual Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
John Narvell
Panelists:
David Ingram, Ming-I Huang
Keywords:
ERM II, Enterprise Risk Management, Rating Agencies, Standard & Poor's
ERM I: Challenges to ERM Implementation in the Property Casualty Insurance Industry
Source:
2006 Annual Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Panelists:
Donald Mango, Thomas Hettinger
Keywords:
ERM I, ERM, Property Casualty
Update on the Proposed Actuarial Standards of Practice - Property/Casualty Unpaid Claim and Claim Adjustment Expense Estimates
The Actuarial Standards Board distributed a proposed actuarial standard of practice on property/casualty unpaid claim and claim adjustment expense estimates for review and comment earlier this year. A number of comments were received by the comment deadline of June 30, 2006. The panel will discuss the main themes underlying these comments and the actions that are being taken as a result.
Source:
2006 Annual Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
John Narvell
Panelists:
Jason Russ, Mary Miller
Keywords:
property/casualty, unpaid claim, and claim adjustment expense, Proposed Actuarial Standards of Practice
U.S. Insurance Market within a Global Marketplace
With 2005 being a record year of natural disasters, speculation about the pricing cycle and the need to replenish surplus has attracted a lot of new capital and investors into the reinsurance industry. As rating agencies focus on diversification and ERM, how has this affected the 2006 renewal pricing? With the low level of catastrophes so far this year, what will be the subsequent impact on the current underwriting cycle in 2007 and beyond?
Source:
2006 Annual Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
John Narvell
Panelists:
John Aquino, Todd Bault
Keywords:
diversification, ERM, global, pricing
Principles Underlying Actuarial Science
The objective of Principles Underlying Actuarial Science is to articulate the current understanding of the significant principles that form the scientific framework underlying all areas of actuarial practice. The intended audience includes practicing actuaries, researchers, and others, such as representatives of standard-setting organizations. This articulation is not immutable; if fundamental changes occur in our understanding of the world, or if a better expression of the ideas is developed, this statement of principles should be revised. Principles abstract the key elements of the scientific framework. Principles are not prescriptions that specify how actuarial work is to be done, but are statements grounded in observation and experience. As our experience and understanding continue to develop, the articulation of these principles may change.
Source:
2006 Annual Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
John Narvell
Panelists:
Stephen Philbrick
Keywords:
Actuarial Science
Predictive Modeling: Potentials and Pitfalls
Predictive modeling has been used very effectively in other countries for years. Initially, only a few leading US personal lines companies utilized these advanced ratemaking techniques. That has been changing and predictive modeling techniques are now being employed by a wide variety of insurance companies from the largest to the smallest and within the broad spectrum of lines of business.
Source:
2006 Annual Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Stuart Klugman
Panelists:
John Pedrick
Keywords:
Predictive Modeling
Getting Published in the CAS
This session will take the mystery out of getting published in the CAS. A panel comprised of published authors and editorial board members will discuss the process of turning an idea into a published paper. The panelists will explain the differences among the various CAS publication options and describe the exciting changes that are underway. They will also discuss the process of submitting a peer-reviewed paper and the associated editorial guidelines. You learn what the new Journal Editorial Board is looking for in a paper and get valuable tips for a successful submission.
Source:
2006 Annual Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Stuart Klugman
Panelists:
Gary Venter, Roger Hayne, Gary Josephson
From Swamp Mud to Rocket Science: Actuaries as Data Quality Advocates
This session will make the case for data quality to actuaries and other major stakeholders. The panel will provide examples of how poor data affected the decision to undertake predictive modeling work and the quality of the result. The panel will also provide examples of data quality issues faced by reserving actuaries. The panelists will discuss the actuaries' role as data quality advocates both within companies and as consultants and provide suggestions for improving data quality. This session will also synthesize the work of the GIRO Task Force on Data Quality with that of the CAS Data Management and Information Educational Materials Working Party.
Source:
2006 Annual Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Robert Blanco
Panelists:
Aleksey Popelyukhin, Keith Allen, Louis Francis
Keywords:
Data Quality
Emerging Exposurers
Are there new emerging exposures lurking in the dark for the Insurance Industry? Should the P&C Industry be concerned about Avian Flu, Nano Engineered Materials, Cyber Exposures or Global Warming?
Source:
2006 Annual Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Chris Nyce
Panelists:
Raji Bhagavatula, Harrison Oellrich, Al Fine
Keywords:
emerging exposures, Engineered Materials, Cyber Exposures or Global Warming
Current Events in Marine & Energy
The panelists will present diverse topics important to the pricing, reserving and risk management of marine and energy insurance products. Topics will focus on the availability of industry statistics, changes in catastrophe coverage, and the evolution of the London Market.
Source:
2006 Annual Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Chris Nyce
Panelists:
Henry Newman
Keywords:
Marine & Energy, industry statistics, changes in catastrophe coverage
Crop Insurance
Crop Insurance is a governmental/private insurance partnership. Panelists will broadly discuss how the program works between these entities. The typical risk to any producer is price/yield. This session will focus on how actuaries can build models to project loss costs for insurance policies.
Source:
2006 Annual Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Jeff Eddinger
Panelists:
Richard Lord, David Bickerstaff, Myles Watt
Keywords:
Crop Insurance
