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STAY TUNED! If you are anticipating additional search filters by attribute and level to align with the CAS Capability Model, it is coming later this Summer. As the CAS begins to code recorded sessions by specific attributes and levels (starting with the 2023 Annual Meeting), these will be tagged in the CAS database of presentations going forward and should be searchable.
But you may use the Capability Model now to help you identify topics. For example, if you want to move up one level under the content area “Functional Expertise,” you may search topics in the particular functional area to expand your knowledge.
Recorded content is searchable by Capability Model attribute and level in the CAS Online Library.
One Pricing Approach to the Changing Texas Homeowners Market
Source:
2004 Regional Affiliate - SWAF
Type:
affiliate
Panelists:
Jeff Kucera
Keywords:
pricing, homeowners market
Multivariate Spatial Analysis of the Territory Rating Variable
Source:
2004 Regional Affiliate - SWAF
Type:
affiliate
Panelists:
Serhat Guven
Keywords:
multivariate, spatial analysis, rating variable
The NAIC Risk Based Capital Formula Revisited
Source:
2004 Regional Affiliate - SWAF
Type:
affiliate
Panelists:
Robert Wolf, G. Nyce
Keywords:
capital formula, risk
Dimension Reduction
Source:
2004 Regional Affiliate - SWAF
Type:
affiliate
Panelists:
Serhat Guven
Keywords:
reduction
2004 Hurricanes and 2005 Reinsurance Market
Source:
2004 Regional Affiliate - SWAF
Type:
affiliate
Panelists:
Ken Selzer, Guru Rao
Keywords:
hurricanes, reinsurance market
CAS Update
Source:
2004 Regional Affiliate - SWAF
Type:
affiliate
Panelists:
Gary Josephson
Keywords:
CAS update
Regulatory Guidance to the 2004 Changes to the Actuarial Opinion
Source:
2004 Regional Affiliate - SWAF
Type:
affiliate
Panelists:
Wendy Germani, Nicole Elliott
Keywords:
regulatory, actuarial opinion
Predictive Modeling for Insurance
Source:
2004 Regional Affiliate - SCCAC
Type:
affiliate
Panelists:
Peter Wu, Jim Guszcza
Keywords:
predicitve modeling, insurance
What Matters Most in North America Now
John Krubski is an entertaining and insightful commentator on the art and science of Persuasion. Krubski is currently the chairman of the International Thought Leadership Council and the author of Who Dances First Naked Gets to Lead; and other guideposts for navigating this NeXt Millennium. Throughout his career in advertising, marketing, and consumer research, Krubski has successfully promoted hundreds of millions of dollars worth of consumer and business-to-business goods and services. In so doing, he has built an international reputation for recognizing the unforeseen impacts of marketplace trends and helping organizations create a long-term vision that guides innovation. This is a talk that promises to amuse, enlighten, challenge, and stimulate.
Source:
2004 Annual Meeting
Type:
keynote
Moderators:
John Have
Simpson's Paradox, Confounding Variables and Insurance Ratemaking
The insurance process is complex, with numerous factors combining to produce both premiums and losses. While compiling rates, actuaries often aggregate data from more than one source, while at the same time stratifying the data to achieve homogeneity. However, such exercises may lead to biased and sometimes even surprising results, called Simpson's Paradox, because the variables involved in the aggregation process or the stratification process are confounded by the presence of other variables. In this paper, we will describe Simpson's Paradox and confounding and the statistical underpinning associated with those phenomena. We will further discuss how such bias may exist in P&C actuarial rating applications and solutions that can resolve the bias.
Source:
2004 Annual Meeting
Type:
Paper
Moderators:
John Have
Discussion of "Minimum Distance Estimation of Loss Distributions" by Stuart A. Klugman and A. Rahulji Parsa (Proceedings LXXX)
Klugman and Parsa have introduced the theory underlying minimum distance estimation with parametric distribution. In this review, Keatinge develops their ideas further to provide a more complete view of the characteristics of minimum distance estimation. Keatinge concludes that minimum distance estimation can be more efficient than the authors imply, but that there is little basis for using it in place of maximum likelihood estimation in most situations.
Source:
2004 Annual Meeting
Type:
Paper
Moderators:
Brian FitzGerald
"Value Creation In Insurance-A Finance Perspective"
The ultimate challenge for the management of an insurance company, as for any other business, lies in understanding of the components of the value creation process, and in controlling and influencing them in order to enhance the long run value of the firm. The definition of value and its measurement involve important finance concepts that extend beyond those that are traditionally practiced by actuarial and accounting professionals. The many varied and seemingly disconnected approaches that are applied in the analysis of insurance company financial data may differ in their specific purposes and levels of application, yet all should share a common objective, which is the assessment of profitability, performance, and ultimately value creation. Unfortunately, many of the current models, such as those used in ratemaking, continue to be too narrowly focused. The failure to take a sufficiently broad perspective and to speak the language of management limits the effectiveness of those who do so, and creates the risk that important business drivers may be missed. The broader finance perspective on the essential elements of the value creation process in insurance is presented here to provide a unifying umbrella framework within which all the various methodologies ultimately fall. Understanding the economics of insurance and the important financial concepts and linkages among variables can only help practitioners, such as actuaries and accountants, become more relevant in a converging financial marketplace.
Source:
2004 Annual Meeting
Type:
Paper
Moderators:
Stephen Morgan
The "Modified Bornhuetter-Ferguson" Approach To IBNR Allocation
This paper presents a "Modified Bornhuetter-Ferguson" approach to allocating IBNR. Essentially, this approach involves a credibility-weighted average of the earned premium and case-incurred loss (or loss adjustment expense) allocation bases. This combined allocation provides a more reasonable and stable result than methods based solely on either earned premium or case-incurred loss. Moreover, the method is easy to automate, explainable in intuitive terms, and does not require the use of an "off-balance" adjustment factor
Source:
2004 Annual Meeting
Type:
Paper
Moderators:
Stephen Morgan
Security and the Reinsurer
Reinsurance has come a long way from the arcane practice that "followed the fortunes" of primary insurers. Today, reinsurance is a prime ingredient in the texture of the financial transactions that protect insurer capital, corporate risk management programs, securitization techniques, etc. As such, the evaluation of the reinsurer is key to a soundly functioning insurance mechanism. Panelists will discuss what reinsurance buyers focus on in reviewing reinsurer security, tools cedants use to mitigate credit risk from reinsurers (collateral, contract language, etc.), key issues that influence the choice of reinsurance partners, and the marketplace evaluation of the financial strength of the reinsurers.
Source:
2004 Annual Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Charles Boucek
Panelists:
Isaac Mashitz, Donovan Fraser
Keywords:
Reinsurer, Reinsurance, corporate risk management, securitization, capital
Sarbanes-Oxley 404-Where Do We Stand?
At the end of fiscal year 2004 SEC registrants are required to make an assessment of the effectiveness of their internal control structure and procedures for financial reporting. The registrant's auditor must attest to, and report on, the assessment made by management. Insurance company actuaries and corporate risk managers have invested significant time and resources to assist their management with this assessment, particularly as it relates to insurance and self-insurance liabilities.
This session will provide a description of these efforts, a status report of 2004 readiness, and a view of the commitments necessary to remain 404 compliant in the future. Our panel of consultants and company personnel have experienced 404 implementation first hand and their insights will stimulate audience discussion of various topics of interest to the actuary.
Source:
2004 Annual Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Ray Stukel
Panelists:
Lise Hasegawa, Dave Perine, Kenneth Sipora
Keywords:
management, Sarbanes-Oxley 404
Professionalism Standards in Practice
How long has it been since you knocked the dust off of your Actuarial Standards of Practice binder or read the CAS Code of Professional Conduct? This session, which will be facilitated by members of the CAS Committee on Professionalism Education, will discuss several case studies involving professional dilemmas. These case studies are intended to lead to lively and educational audience interaction. We guarantee that you will walk away with an increased awareness of professionalism and its impact on the reputation of the actuarial community.
Source:
2004 Annual Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Phillip Baum
Panelists:
Kevin Dyke, Steven Armstrong
Keywords:
Professionalism, Professionalism Standards, CAS Code of Professional Conduct
Plagues of the 21st Century
With the threat of SARS, West Nile Virus, and Avian Flu, is the world poised for another pandemic on the scale of the 1918 influenza pandemic? Our guest expert in Infectious Diseases will present the latest thinking on the prospects for such an event and how it all might unfold. The actuarial issues on how various lines of business might be impacted and the possible modeling techniques to assess the potential impact on pricing and capital adequacy will also be examined.
Source:
2004 Annual Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Phillip Baum
Panelists:
Emile Elefteriadis, Scott McGaire, Brian Ward
Keywords:
Infectious Diseases, health care
Loss Reserving: Is It Broken? What Can Be Done Better?
In light of recent public criticism of the actuarial profession, it is prudent to examine recent loss reserving practice. Several different entities are currently reviewing loss reserve methods and results and their presentation by actuaries. This session will present the results of analyses that are currently underway, performed by subcommittees of the American Academy of Actuaries (AAA) and the CAS Committee on Reserves (CASCOR) and also the Insurance Services Office, Inc. (ISO).
The AAA Committee is reviewing the reserves of recently insolvent or financially impaired companies. The CASCOR Subcommittee is focused on identifying problematic issues in reserving methods and reporting with a goal of addressing them through education and research. One particular aspect of their work includes a review of the information presented in Statement of Actuarial Opinions for both insolvent companies and on-going companies with large additions to their reserves. ISO is updating its biennial industry loss reserve study and doing a separate study of individual company reserve developments in recent years.
The panelists will discuss the results of their studies, including to what extent reserve developments caused or contributed to financial failures and to examine what role actuarial practice may have played. What lessons exist for our profession from these reviews? How can we educate industry observers?
Source:
2004 Annual Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Michael Brockman
Panelists:
Thomas Ryan, Charles Emma
Keywords:
Reserving, Reserves, Schedule P, Adequacy, Deficiency, Confidence intervals
Is It A Small World After All?
More and more insurance entities are becoming international players. It is more common to see insurance groups with companies and/or branches in continental Europe, the UK, Canada, the US and various other localities. As home office actuaries start analyzing liabilities from various other countries, they must ask themselves "Is it a small world after all?" Are the liability environments the same between the different countries or are there unique characteristics that need to be considered in an analysis?
Since all coverages and all countries are beyond the scope of this session, the focus will be on liability coverages in the largest Eurozone countries, the UK, Canada and the US. There will be a comparison of the structure and effect of the legal systems, the trends in costs and the insurance products that have resulted from these various liability climates.
Source:
2004 Annual Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Michael Brockman
Panelists:
Robert Dalton, Sean Whelan
Keywords:
insurance entities, international, liability coverages in the largest Eurozone countries, the UK, Canada and the US
Insurance Market and Actuarial Profession in Japan
Since 1996, deregulation of insurance industries has been gradually implemented in Japan. This caused considerable changes and reforms in the Japanese non-life insurance industry. In the first half of this session, we will present an outline of deregulation and recent market environment surrounding non-life insurers in Japan. Another half of the session will be spent for discussion on actuarial profession in Japan. Our presentation will cover qualification exam, role and status of the appointed actuary and our views on future expansion of the role and opportunities for non-life actuaries in Japan.
Source:
2004 Annual Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
John Pedrick
Panelists:
Hiroaki Hara, Hironori Miyatake, Mitsuru Nagamori, Hirokazu Ogawa, Atsuko Suto, Shigetada Yokoi
Keywords:
deregulation, non-life insurance, Actuarial Profession
Identity Theft
This session will define identity theft and show how a new insurance product is produced. Further, the sources and the information reviewed in order to define the product and price will be discussed. In addition, the current state of the product will be reviewed along with a review in retrospect of the pricing assumptions initially made.
Source:
2004 Annual Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Richard Smith
Panelists:
Kimberley Ward, Charles Orlowicz
Keywords:
identity theft
Heavy Tail Distributions: The COTOR Challenge
In the spring of 2004 a challenge was issued to members of the VALCON CAS e-mail list. Hypothetical loss observations were simulated from a heavy-tailed distribution that contains more extreme values than some common severity distributions, such as the gamma and lognormal. A sample of 250 such "observations" was supplied to the members of the e-mail list, with the challenge of estimating the frequency, expected claim severity and pure premium of the 5000 x 5000 layer. A number of interesting approaches were tried and a lively discussion about extreme value analysis took place. At this session, a number of the responses to the challenge will be presented. Data used in the challenge will be posted on the Committee on the Theory of Risk web site.
Source:
2004 Annual Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Richard Smith
Panelists:
Philip Heckman
Keywords:
Hypothetical loss, severity distributions, Heavy Tail Distributions
Hachemeister Prize Paper
Hachemeister Prize Paper
Source:
2004 Annual Meeting
Type:
Paper
Moderators:
Thomas Bayley
Keywords:
capital consumption, capital allocation, shared asset
Fair Value Accounting - International Accounting Standards
The anticipated Fair Value concept incorporated in the proposed International Accounting Standards will affect P&C insurers currently reporting under US GAAP and Canadian GAAP. This session will discuss model financial statements of a hypothetical insurer for a five-year period under both U.S. GAAP and anticipated Fair Value accounting. We will first show how some of the distinguishing features of proposed IAS such as Market Value Margins (MVMs) and discounting losses could be modeled in the property/casualty insurer's financial statements. We will then explore what happens when companies decide to use different Fair Value parameters (i.e. use different Market Value Margins or different expected payout patterns) that are not reflected under current GAAP.
Source:
2004 Annual Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Thomas Bayley
Panelists:
Scott Drab
Keywords:
International Accounting Standards, IFRS, IASB, Discounting, Market Value Margin
Exploring New Territories
Location is a critical rating characteristic for personal lines insurance. Loss costs-and consequently premiums-can and do vary significantly from one territory to another. Because of the unique features of the geographic characteristic, the standard ratemaking procedures used to review other rating structures must be modified for territorial ratemaking. This panel will discuss several different approaches for determining territorial boundaries and rates and provide pros and cons of each.
Source:
2004 Annual Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Richard Kirste
Panelists:
Serhat Guven, Timothy McCarthy
Keywords:
personal lines, Loss costs-and consequently premiums, ratemaking
