Browse Research

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2014
Actuaries are a key part of the ratemaking process, and generally are responsible for determining the estimated costs of risk transfer. As risk transfer costs change over time, actuaries develop rate indications and determine how to update the rates and factors used to price risk transfer. A rate indication represents a point estimate of expected future costs.
2014
Double chain ladder, introduced by Martínez-Miranda et al. (2012), is a statistical model to predict outstanding claim reserve. Double chain ladder and Bornhuetter-Ferguson are extensions of the originally described double chain ladder model which gain more stability through including expert knowledge via an incurred claim amounts triangle.
2014
Quantile testing is a key technique for fitting parameters and testing performance in workers compensation experience rating and the number of quantile intervals must be specified for such a test. A model is developed to compare the error in the quantile test empirical estimates of relative pure loss ratios to the interquantile differences between expected pure loss ratios.
2014
We introduce the hybrid chain ladder (HCL) method, a distribution-free stochastic loss reserving method that allows for a weighted combination of two approaches. The first approach is data driven resembling the Chain-Ladder (CL) method. The second approach uses expert estimates of ultimate losses in a similar way as the Bornhuetter-Ferguson (BF) method.
2014
EY was retained by the Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS) to write a new text on financial reporting and taxation as it affects reserving and statutory reporting for use in the CAS basic education process. The CAS had two key objectives for this text: 1. Replace a number of readings that existed on the CAS Syllabus of Basic Education as of 2011 with a single educational publication.
2014
More casualty actuaries would employ the discrete Fourier transform (DFT) if they understood it better. In addition to the many fine papers on the DFT, this paper might be regarded as just one more introduction. However, the topic uniquely explained herein is how the DFT treats the probability of amounts that overflow its upper bound, a topic that others either have not noticed or have deemed of little importance.