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2014
CAS E-Forum, Fall 2014-Volume 2 Including the CAS Automated Vehicles Task Force Report and four independent research papers
2014
CAS E-Forum, Fall 2014 Including the CAS Automated Vehicles Task Force Report and four independent research papers
2014
CAS E-Forum, Summer 2014 Volume 2 Including the 2014 Reserves Call Papers
2014
CAS E-Forum, Summer 2014 The E-Forum replaces the traditional printed Forum as the means to disseminate non-refereed research papers to the actuarial community. The CAS will no longer distribute the Forum in hard copy format. The CAS is not responsible for statements or opinions expressed in the papers in the E-Forum. These papers have not been peer reviewed by any CAS Committee.
2014
CAS E-Forum, Spring 2014 Including Report 8 of the RBC Dependencies and Calibration Working Party
2014
As with any large complex system involving multifaceted parameters and processes, our planet’s climatological system is a network of interconnections and interrelationships. Actuarial science, perhaps the ultimate interdisciplinary field, is well-positioned to add value to the study of climate change and its potential socioeconomic impact.
2014
Motivation. Quantile testing is a key technique for fitting parameters and testing performance in workers compensation experience rating and the number of quantile intervals must be specified for such a test.
Method. A model is developed to compare the error in the quantile test empirical estimates of relative pure loss ratios to the interquantile differences between expected pure loss ratios.
2014
Motivation. The goal of experience rating is to improve the equity of individual risk rates. The National Council on Compensation Insurance (NCCI) periodically reviews the performance of its Experience Rating Plan, and makes changes to the Plan as warranted by the results of such reviews.
Method. NCCI recently completed an extended review of its Experience Rating (ER) Plan.
2014
Workers compensation individual risk experience rating, and particularly the National Council on Compensation Insurance’s (NCCI’s) Experience Rating Plan (ERP), date back to the first years of
workers compensation laws in the United States and the Casualty Actuary Society, in the 1910’s and 1920’s (see early volumes of Proceedings of the Casualty Actuarial Society, available at www.casact.org).
2014
To achieve marketplace success, many insurers focus constantly on their growth, increasing their market share and retaining better risks. Insurers should always look for new ways to differentiate themselves from their competitors. Developing and offering new products related to potential climate change and the corresponding sustainability/green movement can be the answer.
2014
Few issues solicit extreme views from everyone you ask. Yes, no, black, white. Abortion rights are one such issue. Most argue adamantly for the side they have chosen, ignoring any conflicting statements. Sustainability defines a state that can continue over time without degradation. Over the last year I have become more aware of the risks to the earth’s sustainability due to human interaction.
2014
One of the effects of climate change is a decrease in rainfall in the American Southwest including California. In the last year, there were the usual number of rainstorms but instead of dropping two to four inches of rain each, they dropped less than 1/4 inch. The brush lands are dry and frequent fires are forecast.
2014
Consequences of global climate change include changes in the frequency, intensity, duration and timing of droughts (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2012). While low levels of rain or snowfall contribute to drought conditions, so, too, do rising surface temperatures, which accelerate moisture evaporation into the atmosphere, drying land surfaces and lowering water levels in streams,
lakes and oceans.
2014
Over the past few decades, nations have suffered great losses in lives and economic assets from an increasing number of natural disasters, which may be possibly due to climate change, combined with rapid economic and population growth particularly in hazard-prone areas.
2014
The development of the Actuaries Climate Change (ACC) Index is an excellent method to measure the impact of climate change. The ACC Index will help the insurance industry to formulate necessary adaptation techniques. Unfortunately, neither the ACC Index, nor the present insurance markets will allow the industry to fully employ its considerable mitigation expertise.
Keywords: Climate Change
2014
Climate change is expected to have wide-ranging impacts on the insurance industry including risk management, ratemaking and reserving. There may be increases in some types of claims (e.g., fire, flood, wind, drought), but also opportunities in green insurance products and insurance investments. The actuarial profession is considering what role it could play in addressing climate change.
Keywords: Climate change
2014
Report 7: Risk-Based Capital (RBC) Reserve Risk Charges – Improvements to Current Calibration Method
The purpose of this paper is to describe the results of research on methods to improve the Current Calibration Method (CCM) for reserve risk charges for use in the NAIC RBC Formula. The paper shows how it is possible to construct risk charges that might be both more reflective of underlying risk and more stable over time than the CCM.
2014
This paper discusses Risk Lighthouse’s methodology of calculating actuarial housing values, with the goal of helping mortgage lenders to gauge departures of housing market values from the fundamentals, and assisting policymakers with tools for implementing counter-cyclical policies. In the aftermath of the U.S.
2014
