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This paper introduces an individual claims forecasting framework utilizing Bayesian mixture density networks that can be used for claims analytics tasks such as case reserving and claims triaging. This approach produces multi-period, cash-flow forecasts. The modeling framework uses a publicly available data simulation tool.
This paper serves as a basic guide to economic scenario generators (ESGs), with an emphasis on applications for the property-casualty insurance industry. An ESG is a computer-based model that provides simulated examples of possible future values of various economic and financial variables.
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Rarely have casualty actuaries needed, much less wanted, to work with complex numbers. One readily could wisecrack about imaginary dollars and creative accounting. However, complex numbers are well established in mathematics; they even provided the impetus for abstract algebra.
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This study note expands on some of the examples found in Chapter 3, “Individual Risk and Rating,” by Margaret Wilkinson Tiller in Foundations of Casualty Actuarial Science
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This paper explores the concepts underlying the valuation of an insurance company in the context of how other (non-insurance) companies are valued. Among actuaries, the value of an insurance company is often calculated as (i) adjusted net worth, plus (ii) the present value of future earnings, less (iii) the cost of capital.
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Probably the most universal hallmark of the scientific mind is a persistent penchant for pigeonholing.
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The paper submitted by Mr. Faust describes one rate making technique and it creates the impression that the problem is a rather simple one. This may be the case where the contract benefits are more or less uniform, i.e., where there is only one coverage for group contracts and only one coverage for non-group contracts.
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It is indeed a pleasure, to have a man with Mr. Kormes’ experience review my paper.
Mr. Kormes indicates that I created the impression that the problem is a simple one. I don’t see how anyone who read the "Foreword" of my paper could obtain this impression. The rating problems are quite complex. In order to keep my paper to a reasonable length, I selected one rating problem.
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Mr. Foster has done an excellent job of describing the intricate details of the Boiler and Machinery Premium Adjustment Rating Plan of the National Bureau of Casualty Underwriters. Although this plan has limited use, it is a very important part of the Boiler and Machinery line of insurance because, as Mr.
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The purpose of this paper is to set forth in an orderly fashion, a summary of certain aspects of the work done in compiling the 1965 version of Table M. It will be assumed that the reader has a basic knowledge of Table M and its use in obtaining insurance charges for retrospective rating plans. This report will be presented in a fashion that will imply that we went straight as an arrow from the problem to the solution.
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The current paper by LeRoy Simon, which reports the trials and tribulations, as well as the methods and procedures, by which the National Council's Subcommittee to Review Table M developed the new 1965 Table M is one which is sorely needed and which will avoid the very unfortunate situation which occurred when Table M was modified in 1954 without any concomitant paper appearing in the Proceedings. This paper is important.
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Mr. Simon's work is a modern "labor of Hercules." Both he and his employer, which made its facilities so readily available for this project, well deserve the epithet "good citizen" from the entire casualty insurance industry. My remarks are not intended to encompass the job recently completed, but, except for a mathematical note appended, are designed to take up from the point where this paper leaves off.
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As most readers are aware, the growth of Blue Cross plans in the last fifteen years has been phenomenal. Not only have such plans grown in terms of numbers of persons covered but also in terms of complexity of operation. The actuarial problems of Blue Cross plans have also increased. There is a large variety of coverages available and premiums must be computed so that they are both adequate and competitive.
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In view of the current widespread interest in the field of hospital, surgical, medical coverage and its attendant cost, it seems desirable that there be a free interchange of ideas between the insurance industry and Blue Cross-Blue Shield in order to facilitate expansion of coverage to as large a segment of the United States population as possible.
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Mr. McLean's comprehensive paper entitled "An Actuarial Analysis of a Prospective Experience Rating Approach for Group Hospital-Surgical-Medical Coverage" outlines briefly the history of experience rating of these coverages, and follows with a rather complete description of the experience rating plan now in effect in his Blue Cross Plan.
