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STAY TUNED! If you are anticipating additional search filters by attribute and level to align with the CAS Capability Model, it is coming later this Summer. As the CAS begins to code recorded sessions by specific attributes and levels (starting with the 2023 Annual Meeting), these will be tagged in the CAS database of presentations going forward and should be searchable.
But you may use the Capability Model now to help you identify topics. For example, if you want to move up one level under the content area “Functional Expertise,” you may search topics in the particular functional area to expand your knowledge.
Recorded content is searchable by Capability Model attribute and level in the CAS Online Library.
Incorporating Cat Model Data into Economic Capital Models
Economic Capital Models (ECMs) are becoming important tools for insurers who need to incorporate the interrelationships between the various liabilities and assets of the company (as opposed to viewing each as a silo unaffected by any of the others) in their financial forecasts. Cat model data is an extremely important part of that process. We’ll go through a handful of ways that cat model data can be incorporated into ECMs for financial forecasting purposes, such as:
Developing Full-Year Forecasts/Distributions based on Partial-Year Actual Results
Developing Financial Distributions at Lower Return Periods
Utilizing Positive/Negative Correlations of Cat Losses with Other Assets & Liabilities
Multi-Year Reinsurance Cost and Availability Forecasts based on Cat Losses
Source:
2012 In Focus Seminar
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Connie Kurpick
Panelists:
Tim Tetlow
Examining Emerging Risks
Dr. Roth will identify a number of emerging risks, providing surprising information on their characteristics.
Solar storms, coronal mass ejections and their cousin, electromagnetic pulses, are grave threats that could be imminent; yet they are not well known. They could have doomsday effects yet they are more likely to cause only moderate destruction from which we could recover...if we prepare.
Our world is warming and the effects are starting to be felt. Dr. Roth will look at the drivers of climate change and where this pattern is taking us. There have not been as many extreme natural catastrophes that the world experienced in 2011. So what else is coming down the pike?
While climate change has been a contributor to water scarcity, there are a number of other causes and the pattern is frightening. In turn, water scarcity is a contributor to food shortages and the world’s food supply appears very vulnerable to a range of threats.
Another shortage of concern is fuel. What can we expect from renewables and is there anything else on the horizon? There's good news and bad news.
People have become very dependent on the Internet and we know about many cyber risks but cyber warfare is a not well-known emerging risk. What could happen? What are we doing to deal with this? Can we deal with this?
Influenza caused by H1N1 virus was not nearly as bad as predicted but it taught us that we need to do more to prepare. The threat of pandemics is serious and our great medical prowess may be of little value if something very new suddenly strikes. What are our options?
Source:
2012 In Focus Seminar
Type:
general
Moderators:
Stephen Talley
Panelists:
Alan Roth
Evolution of Flood Modeling: Is the U.S. Ready?
This session will start with an overview of flood as a modelable peril. It will explore the evolution of flood models from basic models through full scale hydrological models. We will address how flood defenses (levees, cisterns, etc..) are taken into account. And end with a discussion on whether the modeling of US Flood will lead to the assumption of flood risk back into the private sector.
Source:
2012 In Focus Seminar
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Stephen Talley
Panelists:
Vijay Manghnani, Hongtao Wang, Nalan Cabi
Earthquakes: Modeling and Management of the Shake, Rattle and Roll
With major recent earthquakes in Japan, New Zealand, and Chile, managing earthquake risk has become more of a concern for US insurers. Despite the low take up rates, there are potential U.S. earthquakes that could cause in excess of $100 billion dollars in insured losses. This session will focus on current best practices in managing earthquake risk, including a review of catastrophe models and mapping tools.
Source:
2012 In Focus Seminar
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Stephen Talley
Panelists:
John Elbl, David Langdon
Disasters in the Financial Space
The presenters will address different aspects of the disasters in the financial sector, their ability to foresee such occurrences, nature and characteristics of 'main' events and their impact on society in general and the insurance industry in particular.
Source:
2012 In Focus Seminar
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Stephen Talley
Panelists:
Jason Israel, Vagif Amstislavskiy
Current Issues in Crop Insurance
The crop insurance program has undergone significant changes in recent years. The session will review changes introduced by the 2008 Farm Bill, the renegotiation of the Standard Reinsurance Agreement that became effective in 2011, and the outlook for the 2012 Farm Bill. The discussion will also touch on the impact of recent rate activity and the introduction of the Combo policy on program experience.
Source:
2012 In Focus Seminar
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Dale Reynolds
Current Developments in the Cat Bond/ ILS Space
Activity has picked up this year, with new classes of issuance, new sponsors, new sources of capital, and new ways this capital is investing in the space. What is all this activity, why is it happening now and what does it mean for the reinsurance industry?
This panel will have a brief introduction to the ILS space, defining size, class of product, differences from reinsurance, and value proposition, followed by more in-depth discussion of current developments and a look forward to the balance of 2012 and beyond.
The panel will have representation from key ILS market participants including a multiple time repeat issuer, a leading and longstanding dedicated ILS manager and one of the leading broker/dealers in the space. Panelists will address the value proposition from all perspectives, as well as address more detailed topics including views about model adequacy given recent events, loss cost analysis, pricing of individual deals, as well as what constitutes portfolio optimization. Additionally, discussion will touch on what makes this specialized space attractive to an issuer as well as why the ILS space is different from standard reinsurance and how these differences are important when considering ILS protection relative to other risk transfer alternatives.
Source:
2012 In Focus Seminar
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Dale Reynolds
Panelists:
Daniel Hogan, Ryan Clarke, John Seo
Chief Risk Officer Forum
Managing catastrophe exposures is a key component of a CRO’s remit. This panel will engage in a lively discussion about critical issues they have faced, and foresee as emerging challenges, over their span as CROs.
Within a framework of managing a global risk management structure, the panel will discuss, amongst other things, lessons learned from the 2011 global cats, managing significant change in cat model results, cat potential from non-property lines, business risk from a low-interest environment while managing for risks of future inflation and regulatory risk. Of equal interest will be a discussion of current high-stakes exposures for today's CROs as well as a handicapping of emerging trends in cat risk over the next few years.
Source:
2012 In Focus Seminar
Type:
general
Moderators:
Dale Reynolds
Panelists:
Barry Franklin, Michael Angelina, James Maher
Cats at the NAIC
This session will discuss current efforts to include a catastrophe risk charge into the P&C risk-based capital formula, and the regulatory process for reviewing hurricane models and the use of those models in rate filings.
Source:
2012 In Focus Seminar
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Dale Reynolds
Panelists:
Alan Seeley, Robert Lee
CAT Portfolio Optimization and Capital Allocation
In this session we will discuss practical considerations of catastrophe insurance portfolio optimization and capital allocation. We will discuss the sources of uncertainties and how to navigate the risk associated with CAT uncertainties in portfolio optimization and capital allocation. We will present a portfolio optimization method using multiple metrics, namely, (i) the portfolio diversification/concentration metric, (ii) the risk/return metric of individual contracts, and (iii) the cost/benefit of hedging (retrocession).
Source:
2012 In Focus Seminar
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Wayne Wendling
Panelists:
Shaun Wang, Ming Li
Cat Models: Questions You Should Ask
In this session, we will provide information to help attendeees understand:
In which circumstances is use of the model preferable to relying on statistical inference based on historical exposures and losses
What is the model designed to cover and, importantly, what it is not designed to cover
For what types of problems does the model provide useful information and, importantly, for which situations is the model not well suited
How to deal with the uncertainty inherent in the model
How to judge whether a catastrophe model is reliable
How to look at a model’s performance in relation to an actual event
Source:
2012 In Focus Seminar
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Wayne Wendling
Panelists:
Frank Pierson
The Shifting Nature of Catastrophic Risk in the United States
Until recently, the notion of property/casualty claims that reached catastrophic scale meant mainly one cause—hurricanes. And hurricanes wreak their havoc mainly in a small part of the U.S.—along the Gulf of Mexico and the South Atlantic Coast. These catastrophes happen mainly in a part of the year—hurricane season—and the main instrument of hurricane damage is wind. Remember the “good old days”? Now, the CAT landscape seems to be shifting. CAT season seems to be year-round, caused by “severe weather,” with damage resulting from storm surge, power outages, flooding, and (yes) wind. This session will describe these changes and Dr. Weisbart will discuss their effects on, and challenges for, the property/casualty insurance industry.
Source:
2012 In Focus Seminar
Type:
general
Moderators:
Jed Frees
Panelists:
Steven Weisbart
The Next Phase in Catastrophe Models and Modeling
Since its inception in the late 1980s, catastrophe modeling has certainly advanced. New peril models have been introduced and existing models have undergone many revisions. The software platforms have seen significant improvements over time, and companies have come to rely on them in their catastrophe risk management to establish capital and reinsurance needs. The models form the basis for pricing virtually all large reinsurance and capital market transactions with material catastrophe exposure. In primary insurance ratemaking, they have replaced many of the previously used experience-based methodologies. Models are even used to establish initial reserve requirements following major events. In short, the industry has come to rely heavily on these models.
However, models have to a large degree been treated as the domain of the modeling vendors with a limited understanding of their strengths and weaknesses by many users. The users’ implicit assumption has been that the underlying science is beyond their area of expertise. Model users often simply accept the model output as the best estimate of their risk. Consequently, the industry has become very sensitive to model updates. The aim of this session is to provide a Q&A and discussion on:
Model building & validation
Model reliance with model uncertainty
The actuary’s role in resilient risk management.
Source:
2012 In Focus Seminar
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Jed Frees
Panelists:
John Aquino, Robert Muir-Wood, James Maher, Anders Ericson, Richard Attanasio
News Flash – The President Signs Flood Insurance Reform and Modernization – What the New Laws May Mean to You
On July 6th the president signed H.R.4348, a bill including Flood Insurance Reform and Modernization, into law. The new law makes changes the National Flood Insurance Program: eliminating most long standing subsidies, establishing a reserve fund, and studying reinsurance and privatization. Come hear how FEMA’s National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) actuaries are responding to legislation and discuss what it might mean for you.
Source:
2012 In Focus Seminar
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Susan Forray
Panelists:
Andy Neal, Thomas Hayes
Modeling Casualty Cats/Clash Pricing
Similar to increasingly sophisticated property models, models are available to help casualty business writers exposed to mass torts evaluate and understand their risks. These models are especially timely for insurers bound by Solvency II, who will be required to explicitly estimate the potential impact of casualty catastrophes. Many casualty insurers are already aware that understanding their potential exposures to mass torts is critical for continued financial integrity and an important consideration within a sophisticated enterprise risk management framework. This session will examine the challenges insurers face when trying to model casualty catastrophes and describe approaches used to model these risks as reinsurers try to evaluate the risks and utilize reinsurance through clash coverages to address some of the exposures.
Source:
2012 In Focus Seminar
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Bret Shroyer
Panelists:
Christopher Najim
Measuring Cat Exposure in the Energy Space
Cats in the energy space are often high-profile events engendering a lot of press, especially when there is damage extending beyond first party coverages to liability coverages and loss of life.
This panel of experts will start with an exploration of modeling offshore exposures, including strengths and weaknesses of current models, delivered by the head of cat modeling for a reinsurance firm now recognized for its depth of research. In the onshore space, we are only just starting to come to terms with exposures from transmission and distribution of energy, so recognition of accumulations and scope of loss across multiple insurance coverages, in light of the San Bruno gas line explosion that leveled a California neighborhood, becomes a challenging measurement exercise. Finally, while property exposures are often the focus of attention, emerging liability issues should be an area of deep concern also. We will look at emerging liability issues through one of the latest high-profile areas of concern - hydrofracking - and explore those issues with Munich Re America's senior casualty expert on the topic.
Source:
2012 In Focus Seminar
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Ronald Nelson
Panelists:
Christopher Ramarui, Gerard Finley, Joshua Hillman
Man-Made Unintended Consequences
This session will focus on the drivers and unintended consequences of the involvement of legislators and regulators in the details of insurance risk management using Florida as an example, examining the lessons learned while anticipating the next event.
Source:
2012 In Focus Seminar
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Ronald Nelson
Panelists:
Judith Durdan
Managing Severe Thunderstorms
Very much in the news this year and last, companies are reacting to the spate of severe thunderstorms that have affected many parts of the country, sometimes causing extensive tornado and hail damage.
It is worth considering what the best way is to interpret historical claims data and how historical experience and catastrophe models can complement each other.
Source:
2012 In Focus Seminar
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Ronald Nelson
Panelists:
David Lalonde, Halina Smosna
Hedging VA Guarantees: From Defining Objectives To Optimizing a Program
We plan to present a holistic approach to optimizing a hedging program, using multiple techniques. Our presentation will have the elements of a case-study, but will be technical/quantitative and will emphasize the methodology. The benefit to the audience will be not only in the specifics of the program, but also in the several dimensions of risk we will explore from an ERM perspective: equity, interest, volatility, liquidity, and operational risks are to be considered.
Source:
2012 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Ronald Nelson
Panelists:
Alan Yang
ERM: Aligning Proper Incentives with "Risk/Reward" Decision-Making
Most of the risk a corporation faces does not stem from some exogenous event but rather from the decisions and behaviors of people. Compensation programs are commonly designed with the goal of attracting and retaining talent. However, another critical component that is not always considered in compensation plan design and management is the incentives they provide for employees and the resulting risks these incentives may present for a company. In particular, a poorly designed or managed compensation plan may cause employees or management to engage in behavior to their own advantage which may be detrimental to company value. These risks are insidious and need to be analyzed with a view towards the company’s strategic vision and risk appetite. The number 1 lesson learned from the financial crises is that incentives (aka incentive compensation) need to be better aligned with desired performance and the ability to make decisions need to be aligned with a person's accountability.
In this session we explore whether these lessons have indeed been learnt and integrated within the insurance and investment banking sectors today. This presentation will discuss the following considerations in how risk rofessionals can develop techniques and approaches to allow them to: • Better align current incentives in compensation programs with the company’s risk profile and appetite;
• Understand and enhance the company’s controls to appropriately mitigate excessive risk taking;
• Balance risk management with the need to maintain an appropriate level of incentive compensation to attract and retain the necessary talent in the organization; and,
• Meet increasing demands for disclosure, analysis, and documentation from external regulators and stakeholders.
Source:
2012 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Robert Downs
Panelists:
Robert Wolf
Enterprise Risk Management Blind Spots: Prophets of Emerging Risk
Will we be blind-sided by emerging risks that follow on the heels of one another? Are we biased towards risk-manifested events and outcomes rather than actual rudimentary sources of risks. This general session highlights our “prophets” thinking on the following: • Low frequency/high consequence natural disasters such as earthquakes, tsunamis, tornado outbreaks, and major oil spills that can cause systemic failures have in fact increased in frequency. 2011’s earthquake off the shores of Japan and subsequent tsunami had far reaching implications including effects on a major energy source.
• Energy from oil and other sources is becoming increasingly difficult to obtain at reasonable prices. The squeeze in energy supplies was instrumental in the decision by oil companies to do deepwater drilling -- a decision which resulted in a major loss in 2010 -- and in the decision to pursue nuclear electricity, even in earthquake-prone areas. Recent newspaper articles tie the 2008-2009 recession to rising oil prices, and raise the question as to whether rising oil prices will soon cause another recession. Should more time be spent looking at alternative energy sources?
• Arguments indicate an electromagnetic pulse is perhaps the biggest threat facing our nation. Some scientists say that a large pulse from the sun is indeed due. Knowledge of this risk is not widespread as this threat is not well known.
• How will world population growth and demographic change affect availability of water and natural resources and climate change, as well as economies and financial markets?
• Whether or not there is consensus on the issue of climate change, there is a real need to deal with the changes that we are experiencing such as more extreme weather events, more wildfires, pests migrating northward, water scarcity, and more.
• Using further credit to fix the financial crises that was caused by unsustainable credit is being critiqued by some experts as a systemic ponzi scheme that is in and of itself not sustainable. What other countries are subject to an Arab Spring? Will the European Union resolve its sovereign debt crisis and what are the implications of not doing so?
• Technological innovation is increasing at an exponential pace. Is this “progress” or are new risks being created?
Are we ignoring key sources of these emerging risks and the impact and domino effects that may manifest as regards our human eco-system, let alone economy?
Source:
2012 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Robert Downs
Panelists:
Alan Roth
Chief Risk Officer Roundtable
Join us for two round table discussions involving Chief Risk Officers. The first round table will be composed of representatives of the newly formed North American CRO Council (NACRO), who will discuss the Council's formation, composition, mission, accomplishments, and objectives. The second round table will be composed of one member of the NACRO Council, as well as CROs from other segments of the financial services sector for a broader risk management discussion; topics will include the challenges currently faced by CROs and how best to manage exposure to systemic risk and how to mitigate or influence it
Source:
2012 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Robert Downs
Panelists:
Michael Mahaffey
Bringing the Power of Today's Advanced Predictive Analytics to the Practice of Risk Management
Nowhere is the use of technology more starkly contrasted than between traditional industries where data is considered merely a by-product of activity not a valuable asset, and new age companies who set out to gather data and turn it into revenue. In this session, experts will describe how some data management techniques used by modern companies can be applied to empower risk management across a range of industries.
Source:
2012 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Robert Downs
Panelists:
Jeff Braswell
Systemic Risk in the Eye of the Regulator: To Be, or not to Be (a SIFI, that is)
Since the financial crisis, financial services regulators have been working to critically examine and ultimately enhance supervisory oversight, particularly for those institutions deemed to be systemically important, a.k.a a SIFI (Systemically Important Financial Institution). Concurrently, insurance regulators are in the process of introducing significant changes to supervisory oversight, not limited to SIFI's, but more comprehensively across the sector as they seek to fortify their regimes. Through this process of regulatory self examination and industry interaction, it has become increasingly clear that effective regulation can no longer rely on strict rules and minimal capital standards. Instead, regulators need to be able to rapidly assess which institution need regulatory intervention, whether due to low capital or poor risk controls (ORSA and governance), communicate industry best practices for evaluating and treating risk, and communicate emerging risks to other regulators, industry and the public. Through this panel discussion, participants will develop an understanding of the most significant proposed changes to regulatory oversight and the nature of ongoing discussions that could fundamentally change the way regulators supervise financial services institutions.
Source:
2012 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Robert Downs
Panelists:
Thomas Sullivan
To Be or Not to Be (Traditional)? - That is the Question
Traditional reserving methods carry assumptions not usually satisfied by the data. For actuaries, the loss reserving process has traditionally meant applying a number of methods to various sets of data to develop multiple estimates of unpaid loss and LAE amounts. Each method leads to a different estimate of the appropriate loss reserve. The actuary then typically selects a “central estimate” from these various results, based on an assessment of the relative merits of each method, knowledge of the business and other factors. This traditional process produces a single point estimate of the liability.
This session will explore areas where traditional reserving approaches need to be enhanced to strive for more informed results and conclusions. The panel will discuss different lines of business where such non-traditional approaches are used in conjunction with the traditional reserving process. The panel will cover such areas as Directors and Officers Liability, Property Catastrophe, Umbrella Liability and Contingent Business Interruption. Panelists will discuss unique approaches to the reserving estimate process for a particular line of business or coverage type.
Source:
2012 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Panelists:
Christopher Bozman, John Kulik, Lee Routledge
