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STAY TUNED! If you are anticipating additional search filters by attribute and level to align with the CAS Capability Model, it is coming later this Summer. As the CAS begins to code recorded sessions by specific attributes and levels (starting with the 2023 Annual Meeting), these will be tagged in the CAS database of presentations going forward and should be searchable.
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STAY TUNED! If you are anticipating additional search filters by attribute and level to align with the CAS Capability Model, it is coming later this Summer. As the CAS begins to code recorded sessions by specific attributes and levels (starting with the 2023 Annual Meeting), these will be tagged in the CAS database of presentations going forward and should be searchable.
But you may use the Capability Model now to help you identify topics. For example, if you want to move up one level under the content area “Functional Expertise,” you may search topics in the particular functional area to expand your knowledge.
Recorded content is searchable by Capability Model attribute and level in the CAS Online Library.
Non-Life Insurance in Latin America and India
As companies continue to seek growth opportunities in emerging markets it has become increasingly important to stay abreast of what is happening in these markets. Emerging markets are fluid and are rapidly undergoing change in many areas-regulations, market response, product offerings, etc. Additionally, companies are increasingly considering entering new countries for the first time as opportunities present themselves either as start-up operations, joint ventures or through Mergers and Acquisitions.
This session will focus on two such important emerging markets-India and Latin America. The panel will discuss unique reserving, accounting and cultural issues, the regulatory environment and state of the market, as well as reporting issues including requirements for Statements of Opinion, reserving requirements, solvency and capital requirements and the potential impact of IFRS and Solvency II. Unique foreign exposures and coverages will also be discussed.
Source:
2009 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Kimberly Borgelt
Panelists:
Scott Kurban, Anita Sathe
Intermediate Track III-Case Study
Developed as a workshop, this session covers the concepts discussed in the preceding intermediate sessions. Audience members are encouraged to analyze and discuss the cases, and propose techniques to apply for estimating the loss reserves. Various techniques will be discussed and a calculator will be helpful. Laptop computers are not necessary, but if participants have them. Excel spreadsheets will be available to let participants test multiple scenarios. The spreadsheet will be available on the CAS Web Site following the seminar.
Source:
2009 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Panelists:
D. Lamb, Lorie Darrow, Jim Kahn, Christopher Tait
Where's the Beef? Do Mack and Bootstrap Yield Under-Nourished Reserve Ranges?
The recent financial crisis has revealed the chronic under-estimation of risk in the financial industry. This session will show that actuaries may also be under-estimating risk in their reserve distributions. Dan Murphy will discuss the 2007 GIRO working party report "Best Estimates and Reserving Uncertainty"* that used monte carlo simulation to conclude that the Mack Method understates the chance of extreme outcomes. Using the statistical foundations of the Mack method, Dan will graphically portray its fundamental assumptions, demonstrate why the GIRO working party should not have been surprised at what they found, and suggest modifications to the method that may widen its indicated range of possible outcomes.
Then Jessica Leong will take you back in time using Schedule P. If you created bootstrap distributions for 50 companies as of December 2000, how would those distributions have fared, with hindsight? The conclusion is that the bootstrap distribution successfully models independent risk, but currently ignores systemic risk. Systemic risks are risks that will affect the entire market - it's the risk that brought down the banking industry. Jessica will also demonstrate a new method to model this risk, to create a truly complete distribution and enhance your bootstrap results.
* http://www.actuaries.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0010/31303/BHPrize_Gibson.pdf
Source:
2009 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Panelists:
Jessica Leong, Daniel Murphy
Basic Track III-You Set the Reserve!
During this last session within the Basic Track, participants will receive three sets of data and will be asked to develop reserve estimates using the basic methods presented. A calculator will be helpful. Laptop computers are not necessary, but if participants have them, Excel spreadsheets will be available to let participants test multiple scenarios. The spreadsheet will also be available online following the seminar.
Source:
2009 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Panelists:
Robin Davis, Christopher Lattin, Craig Taylor, Jason Kurtz
As a Reserving /Opining Actuary Do You Know Your ASOP's?
Have you read the Actuarial Standards of Practice (ASOP) 9, 23, 36, 41 and 43 lately? A reserving/ opining actuary should review these ASOP's and others every year before producing an opinion or actuarial report. ASOP 9 discusses Documentation and Disclosures, ASOP 41 covers Actuarial Communications; ASOP 23 discusses Data Quality; ASOP discusses 36 Statement of Actuarial Opinion; and ASOP 43 covers Property/Casualty Unpaid Claim Estimates. There are a lot of "shoulds" in these ASOP; i.e. the actuary "should consider" or "should discuss" etc. Come for a lively discussion on these ASOP's and the proposed changes to ASOP 36.
Source:
2009 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Kimberly Borgelt
Panelists:
Richard Marcks, Jason Russ, Mary Miller
Medical Cost Trends in Workers Compensation and Healthcare Insurance Systems
Although only a small piece of the total U.S. medical costs paid out annually in the U.S., the medical expense component represents roughly 60% of the total benefit payout by Workers Compensation (WC) Insurance systems. In addition, the annual trends in WC medical expense costs have been growing at rates well above the annual rates reported for total U.S. medical expense costs. What makes this a compelling issue is the fact that WC insurance is the largest line of P&C insurance in terms of premium volume and liability reserves in the US. Addressing the primary components driving these trends today may well prevent a collapse of the entire U.S. WC system tomorrow.
In this session, the presenters will be broadening our perspective on WC medical costs by making comparisons to general healthcare insurance data. They will explore differences and similarities in the utilization and price of medical services within the WC and Healthcare Insurance systems. With improved understanding of the primary inflationary factors underlying the medical component, actuaries will be better equipped to understand and adjust to the ever-changing dynamics of the U.S. Workers Compensation Insurance system.
Source:
2009 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Kimberly Borgelt
Panelists:
William Miller
Asbestos Litigation-Better, But Not Over
Asbestos litigation has changed dramatically in the last few years, with the pendulum swinging more in favor of defendants. The era of mass screening of (fraudulent) claims has passed, corporate defendant bankruptcies are unlikely to resume at a significant pace, and many states have enacted reforms that focus resources on the sickest claimants.
However, the most serious mesothelioma claims are expected to continue for decades and remaining solvent defendants and their insurers continue to see upward pressure on the cost of these claims. Additionally, approval of several bankruptcy trusts with $30 - $40 billion available to claimants will influence future claiming behaviors. While the litigation landscape has changed for the better, significant liabilities remain and the future remains uncertain.
Panelists will provide an update on recent legislative actions and judicial proceedings that shape the litigation environment. Panelists will also provide the front-line perspective of an insurer handling asbestos claims on behalf of their policyholders on a daily basis. Mike will provide high level insights regarding nationwide trends, significant liability cost drivers, and areas that are of the most concern for the future.
Source:
2009 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Trevor Handley
Panelists:
Mark Behrens, Michael Sehr
Intermediate Track II-Investigating and Detecting Change
This session will explore a variety of techniques to detect and address changes in mix of business, claim closing patterns, and case reserve adequacy. When changes in history are verified through discussion with claim, underwriting, reinsurance, and field staff, the actuary can pick the right tool for the job. Adjustments of loss reserve methodologies to account for each situation will also be discussed.
Source:
2009 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Panelists:
Jeremy Pecora, Richard Atkinson, Lawrence White, David Vogt
Current Issues and Trends in Personal Auto Insurance Reserving
This session will focus on recent trends in the personal automobile insurance market and the impact such trends have on reserving techniques and the needed reserves. The speakers will focus on several topics including reserving techniques and issues related to unlimited PIP in Michigan, current reserving trends in other liability coverages such as BI and UM, and the latest observations in all of the major auto coverages from recent reserve analysis.
Source:
2009 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Trevor Handley
Panelists:
Roger Hayne, Allan Neis
Basic Track II-Comparison of Techniques
Building on Basic Track session I, this session will present basic questions surrounding a reserve estimate: "Is it reasonable?" and "How sensitive is the estimate to alternative assumptions?" Participants will then walk through basic expected loss ratio methods, comparing them with the loss development method. Advantages and disadvantages of methods will be presented. The session will conclude by describing the Annual Statement Schedule P, with terminology and data available from that schedule.
Source:
2009 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Panelists:
George Levine, Nancy Arico, Vincent Yezzi
Simultaneous Modeling of Paid and Incurred Losses
Actuaries are gradually moving from deterministic methods to stochastic reserve models. However, modeling paid and incurred triangles separately ignores the ultimate equality of paid and incurred. This session will present two practical alternatives to modeling paid and incurred losses simultaneously that both result in the ultimate paid and incurred losses being exactly, rather than approximately, equal. There will be a simple spreadsheet that illustrates one of the techniques and a number of case studies where joint methods are compared to other approaches that do not take into account the eventual equality of cumulative paid and incurred losses. For one presentation, a familiarity with the recent Quarg/Mack paper would be useful; for the other presentation basic knowledge of statistics (multivariate normal distribution and maximum likelihood) is sufficient.
Source:
2009 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Trevor Handley
Panelists:
Leigh Halliwell, Bouke Posthuma, Eric Cator
Risk Transfer Testing-Guidance and Practice
Accounting standards require that a reinsurance contract must transfer a significant amount of insur ance risk. This session will briefly discuss the accounting guidance available today and will focus on several methods that can be used to test for risk transfer. This session will allow the audience to engage in a dialogue with practitioners to discuss the relative strengths and weaknesses of the various methodologies.
Source:
2009 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Trevor Handley
Panelists:
Kevin Owens, Robert Smith, Bonnie Parker
Intermediate Track I-Considerations in Evaluating Changing Conditions
In an ideal situation, loss reserving would begin with a long, stable history of consistent claim experience with no significant environmental or operational changes affecting the mix of business, claim handling, or terms of coverage. However, that situation is often far from the reality. Changing conditions contribute to volatility and uncertainty in estimates that are mechanically produced. The intermediate track begins with a series of considerations that can help bring understanding of the volatility of initial estimates. These considerations lead us to diagnostic tools for clues. More complete understanding requires communication with other operating units.
Source:
2009 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Panelists:
Jane Taylor, Anthony Burke, Theodore Shalack, Charles White
Ethical Case Studies from the Course on Professional Development
Members from the Course on Professionalism Education will present a historical perspective on actuarial professionalism followed by a brief overview of the Code of Professional Conduct. Case studies will be presented and panelists/audience will argue for and against the subject actuary's actions in the context of the Code and relevant Standards of Practice. Under the revised 2008 Qualifications Standards, three of the required 30 CE hours need to be on professionalism topics. This session will provide attendees with 1.8 CE hours toward the professionalism requirement.
Source:
2009 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Trevor Handley
Panelists:
Robin Davis, John Wade
Current Issues and Trends in Medical Malpractice
This session will focus on the most recent trends in the medical malpractice market and the impact such trends would have on reserve and funding studies being prepared by actuaries. Also, the results of recent industry benchmarking analysis will be summarized. Included in this session will be a discussion of the trends in frequency and severity of claims and their effects on loss reserving for all types of medical professional liability including long-term care professional liability. We will also discuss the unique reserving and opinion challenges associated with captives and risk retention groups that write medical professional liability coverage.
Source:
2009 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Brian Hoffman
Panelists:
Mark Burgess, Christian Coleianne, Kevin Atinsky
Basic Track I - Considerations in Evaluating Reserves
Basic understanding begins with the "CAS Statement of Principles Regarding Loss and Loss Adjustment Expense Reserves," including the definitions and considerations that guide the actuary. Following the discussion for the "Statement of Principles," participants will walk through, step-by-step, the most basic of reserving techniques-the loss development method. The presentation will include examples of data organization, link ratios, key assumptions, and potential problems.
Source:
2009 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Panelists:
Marc Oberholtzer, Derek Jones, Kurt Johnson, Kyle Falconbury
Workers Compensation Excess of Loss Pricing
This session will cover the many special issues relating to this line of business. Topics will include a discussion of loss trends, particularly dealing with sharply different medical and indemnity severity trends and often declining frequency. The speaker will discuss the difficulties associated with determining appropriate excess loss development factors, and possible methodologies for calculating reasonable factors. He will discuss the NCCI’s approach to calculating excess factors and will review the strengths and weaknesses of the NCCI’s new method. He will review issues related to determining appropriate excess factors for non-NCCI states, such as California. Finally, he will discuss how to quantify the impact of legislative reforms and benefit level changes on excess layers.
Source:
2009 CARe LAS - Reinsurance Boot Camp on Pricing Techniques
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Andrew Doll
Professional Liability Pricing
This session will cover unique pricing approaches and issues related to pricing Directors and Officers Liability and Medical Malpractice. The D&O session will start with a description of the coverage, the different sub-classes of business and issues relating to them. The speaker will pay special attention to the issues of the current economic conditions have on D&O coverage. She will also discuss some of the claims handling issues that impact the rating of this coverage. The speaker will review key issues and unique features of rating medical malpractice reinsurance such as clash coverage and ECO/XPL. The discussion will also include recent movement in loss trends, and recent tort reforms and their possible impacts on reinsurers.
Source:
2009 CARe LAS - Reinsurance Boot Camp on Pricing Techniques
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Martin Simons
Loss Sensitive Treaty Terms
This session will start by reviewing different treaty features. It will then discuss methods for deriving aggregate distributions. The speaker will review different methods that can be used and when each is appropriate. She will also discuss how to view and attempt to quantify parameter uncertainty as well as approaches for reviewing the reasonability of the indicated aggregate distribution. Other topics that will be covered include responding to issues commonly raised by underwriters, considering deficit and credit carry forwards, and the frequent misuse of curve fitting approaches to determine size of loss curves.
Source:
2009 CARe LAS - Reinsurance Boot Camp on Pricing Techniques
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Charles White
Catastrophe Modeling
This session will discuss the basic elements of cat modeling, including a review of the meteorological, engineering, and insurance modules that comprise nearly all catastrophe models. The speaker will discuss the key differences between the various commercial models, including a discussion of what perils are modeled and those that are not. He will discuss how to review the completeness of the exposure data provided and the different levels of data quality. This session may also review advanced topics including demand surge, storm surge, secondary uncertainty, etc. Finally the speaker will discuss how catastrophe models can be used for portfolio management and the allocation of risk capital to individual contracts and/or lines of business.
Source:
2009 CARe LAS - Reinsurance Boot Camp on Pricing Techniques
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Charles White
Property and Casualty Exposure Rating
This session will cover exposure rating for property per risk treaties and general casualty business. It will start with a brief review of the basic premise and mechanics of exposure rating. The casualty portion of this session will review the calculation and uses of limited expected values and discuss the strengths and weaknesses of various types of ISO curves. The session will review issues related to exposure rating personal auto liability and different ways of quantifying the impact of ALAE. It will also cover more advanced topics, such as applying the standard exposure rating methodology to evaluate the adequacy of client umbrella pricing as well as exposure rating excess of loss treaties covering umbrella. The property portion of the session will discuss the methodology and data underlying the ISO PSOLD property per risk rating model. The speaker will compare this approach with traditional property per risk rating based on loss to value curves. The speaker will also discuss key data issues, such as when the limit profiles provided do not match the treaty definition of risk. Finally, the speaker will review special issues with regard to exposure rating homeowners business and discuss the difficulties of exposure rating shared and layered business.
Source:
2009 CARe LAS - Reinsurance Boot Camp on Pricing Techniques
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Charles White
Experience Rating
This session will review the mechanics and finer points of experience rating. Topics covered will include a review of experience rating methodology, a discussion of the leveraged effect of trend, sources and variability of excess loss development, the impact of changes in the mix of business, and a discussion of diagnostic checks to validate the assumptions in the model. Finally, the speaker will discuss a new method that he has developed for weighing experience and exposure indications.
Source:
2009 CARe LAS - Reinsurance Boot Camp on Pricing Techniques
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
L. Conlee
Review Reinsurance Structures and Pricing Prorata Treaties
This session will start with a review of standard and non-standard reinsurance structures as well as a discussion of the various motivations for the buyers. It will then cover the mechanics of rate level loss ratio calculations and then move on to cover more advanced topics, including dealing with a changing mix of business, balancing responsiveness and stability, and loading for catastrophes and large losses. This session will also review approaches that the actuary can take when data is limited, including appropriately benchmarking versus similar companies and making rate comparisons. The speaker will also give his thoughts regarding the difficulties in rating covers for start-up entities.
Source:
2009 CARe LAS - Reinsurance Boot Camp on Pricing Techniques
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
L. Conlee
Actuarial Foundation Update
He shared that there have been over 30 MAF donors during the MAF's matching program over the last two years…donating $15,000 and providing an additional $10,000 with the match. He talked about consumer education materials, research and actuarial education, and youth education. His complete presentation is attached.
Source:
2009 Regional Affiliate - MAF
Type:
affiliate
Panelists:
David Cummings
Innovations and Value Creation in Predictive Modeling
David took us back to look at past innovation in predictive analytics and then talked about new innovation coming down the road for home and auto and measuring the value of increased rate segmentation. His complete presentation is attached below.
Source:
2009 Regional Affiliate - MAF
Type:
affiliate
Panelists:
David Cummings
Keywords:
Predictive Modeling
