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New Features of the Automobile

Technology has come a long way. There are features on vehicles that can help you not only minimize, but also avoid accidents. Some of these features can assist a distracted driver or improve the driver’s ability to see a hazard around a bend. Others will apply the brakes for you to avoid rear ending the car in front of you. Come hear about the technology of today and tomorrow so you can start thinking about how that will impact the insurance world.
Source: 2009 Spring Meeting
Type: concurrent
Moderators: Jeanne Camp
Panelists: Kay Stepper, Sharon Mazanec, Matthew Moore

A Report from the ABCD

Mike Toothman, a CAS Past President and a current member of the Actuarial Board for Counseling and Discipline (ABCD), will discuss the processes of the ABCD and your obligations and responsibilities under the Code of Conduct. He will use several case studies to highlight common ethical issues. Lively audience participation is anticipated!
Source: 2009 Spring Meeting
Type: concurrent
Moderators: Jeanne Camp
Panelists: Michael Toothman

California Workers’ Compensation Reforms – Is the System Evolving or Unraveling?

The 2002-2004 California workers compensation medical and indemnity reforms contained some of the most significant changes in history. The outcomes immediately following reforms showed significant corrections to the record adverse development and escalating medical utilization trends seen between 1992 and 2002. However, new research shows that post-reform administrative changes and recent appeals board decisions have compromised these gains and threaten the stability of the system. Two leading workers compensation researchers will review the history and recent modifications to the reforms as well as present new outcomes on the association between post-reform changes and claim development, medical utilization, return-to-work, and litigation.
Source: 2009 Spring Meeting
Type: concurrent
Moderators: Stephan Christiansen
Panelists: Laura Gardner

Price Optimization – Getting Started

Optimization is the hot topic for personal lines predictive modeling. This session will provide a brief overview of optimization and identify some of the key issues such as building elasticity and risk models, designing the appropriate value functions that combine the component models and creating the appropriate optimization algorithm to search for the set of rates given a certain set of constraints. In addition this session will cover opportunities and pitfalls associated with price optimization strategies.
Source: 2009 Spring Meeting
Type: concurrent
Moderators: Simon Lilley
Panelists: Serhat Guven, Bob Weishaar

What’s going on with the use of Credit?

A lot has happened in the Regulation of the use of credit history over the past couple of years. The economy may be wreaking havoc on some people’s credit reports. Have the models been adjusted to account for all that is happening with the foreclosures of homes and jobs lost? Is credit still as predictive as it once was? It’s time to find out where we are and what the future holds on it’s use!
Source: 2009 Spring Meeting
Type: concurrent
Moderators: Simon Lilley
Panelists: Howard Eagelfeld, Chet Wiermanski

A Top-Down Approach to Understanding Uncertainty in Loss Ratio Estimation

In this paper we define a specific measure of error in the estimation of loss ratios; specifically, we focus on the discrepancy between the original estimate of the loss ratio and the ultimate value of the loss ratio. We also investigate what public data can tell us about this measure. Using Other Liability Occurrence data as reported in Schedule P, we find that in a given accident year the values of this "estimation error ratio" for different companies are lognormally distributed. Furthermore, we find that the average accident year estimation error ratio is amenable to time series analysis. Using the time series analysis and the lognormal accident year model, we can estimate the distribution of possible estimation error ratios for the industry in a future year.
Source: 2009 Spring Meeting
Type: paper
Panelists: Patrick Brockett, Alice Underwood, Linda Golden
Keywords: Uncertainty

Valuing Mortgage Collateral for Asset Valuation Purposes

During the mid-2000s when non-traditional mortgage securitizations helped fuel the credit crisis, investors worldwide piled into residential mortgage backed credit derivatives (RMBS, CDO, ABS) because the spreads above Treasuries were several points and the securities were highly rated by the rating agencies. Institutional investors, often times pension funds and insurance companies, generally did not perform independent fundamental analysis on the mortgage collateral underlying the securities they were purchasing. This session opens with discussion about non-agency mortgage securitization and segues into an actuarial approach to projecting future cash flows related to residential mortgage backed credit derivatives. The fundamental approach begins with an analysis of the underlying collateral that explicitly reflects both underwriting characteristics and key economic indicators (home price appreciation and interest rates) as well as aggregate performance methods. The investors’ cash flows are then projected using the actuarially derived modeling assumptions and credit derivative waterfall schemes.
Source: 2009 Spring Meeting
Type: concurrent
Moderators: Julia Stenberg
Panelists: Neal Dihora, Jeffrey Green

Underwriting Risk: The Best Laid Plans

You have done your rate analysis, your predictive models are impeccable at identifying risk characteristics and accounting for them appropriately in your pricing model, you have included the correct provision for all losses and expenses, including the cost of capital, you know what the loss size and expected frequency distributions are for your book. In short you have dotted all your I’s and crossed all your T’s. Now it is time to roll all this into your company’s assessment of the risks it faces as captured by its economic capital model. Are you ready for that step? This panel will look at underwriting risk - the risk that costs, including the cost of capital, on a book of policies will turn out different from what was anticipated in the price charged. Some of that difference is due simply to random fluctuation and is likely anticipated in many pricing analyses. But there are influences in addition to simple random chance. Such influences might not be readily apparent and they might not be appropriately captured in the analytic models. Our panel will look at both the quantitative and qualitative issues that can arise when considering underwriting risk.
Source: 2009 Spring Meeting
Type: concurrent
Moderators: Julia Stenberg
Panelists: Urban Leimkuhler, Richard Derrig

Prudent Enterprise Risk Management: What is Learned by the Crisis

Several Discussions of the financial crises have alluded to a perceived failure of enterprise risk management. The consensus of the authors of the recently published E-book “Risk Management: The Current Financial Crisis, Lessons Learned and Future Implications” seems to counter this view in that the crisis is not a result of a failure of enterprise risk management per se, but rather a failure to implement enterprise risk management processes at all. The panelists will discuss various lessons learned from the current crisis with a view that the key to prudent enterprise risk management is in the enactment of a corporate culture that aligns desired performance with incentives and the matching of authority to make decisions with the accountability for the decisions made. Currently, most incentive compensation rewards returns, but without reflecting risk undertaken to achieve them. It’s time to balance the two. How can we help? It’s our opportunity to serve.
Source: 2009 Spring Meeting
Type: concurrent
Moderators: Julia Stenberg
Panelists: Michael Wacek, Parr Schoolman, Neil Bodoff

Solvency II and a New ERM Paradigm

This session will provide information on the current state of the European Union’s Solvency II regulatory initiative along with ways in which its fundamentals can lead to an enhanced Enterprise Risk Management framework. A critical piece of Solvency II regulation will be the development of internal capital models and how they are used to manage risk and make strategic decisions. We will discuss the attributes of an effective capital model and uses beyond defining regulatory capital. The session will also include a presentation of PillarOne, an open source modeling platform, as well as the modeling approach and simulation results of a partial internal model comparing Solvency I and Solvency II requirements. Finally, we will talk about how capital models and other operational improvements can lead to a new ERM paradigm, one in which the risk function within an organization not only focuses on what can go wrong but also on what can go right and becomes part of the strategic decision making process.
Source: 2009 Spring Meeting
Type: concurrent
Moderators: Julia Stenberg
Panelists: Navid Zarinejad, Jörg Dittrich

ERM Roundtable Discussion

Enterprise Risk Management is rapidly evolving to better meet the needs of firms. Join fellow attendees in this roundtable format as you share your knowledge and develop solutions to issues commonly faced by ERM practitioners. Facilitators will help guide the discussion to keep the topics varied and useful to practitioners. Topics will be determined by interest at the session, but could extend comments made at other sessions or issues of general interest. Each roundtable session is meant to be broad and not tied to issues related to a single track.
Source: 2009 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium
Type: concurrent
Panelists: David Koenig

Advanced Risk Modeling Concepts

The 2009 ERM symposium highlights select innovative cutting edge papers that explore and advance risk management topics with a focus on the analysis and practical tools related to financial and operational risks, interaction between the risks (i.e., diversification benefits), integrated ERM, and ERM value creation.
Source: 2009 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium
Type: paper
Panelists: Gary Venter, Spencer Gluck, John Manistre, Klaus Böcker
Keywords: Risk

Solvency II Framework and its Implication for the Mexican Insurance Market

The Mexican Insurance and Bonds Commission (CNSF) has announced Mexico's compromise to comply with Solvency II in 2012. This has left the Mexican insurance market with a very tight agenda to fulfill all the CNSF requirements. This session aims to present two major topics involved in this regulatory framework: * Solvency II in México, an actuarial perspective and * Operational risk best practices for emerging markets-Mexico's case
Source: 2009 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium
Type: concurrent
Moderators: Gregory Graves
Panelists: Massashi Kikuchi, Jorge Araiza

Economic Capital with Applications in View

Economic capital performs two critical functions: it forms the crucial linkage between risk and return and it constitutes a formal and rigorous risk quantification regime. A number of insurers are starting to use economic capital frameworks for a variety of key managerial undertakings, including: rating agency communications, internal solvency exercises, determination that risks are appropriately assessed, and strategic decision-making including performance measurement. In this session, we illustrate the application of economic capital in two specific realms. First, we outline a framework for liability-driven strategic asset allocation in the context of economic capital. The framework uses economic capital as a key risk tolerance constraint and the return on economic capital (ROEC) as a key risk-adjusted return objective. We demonstrate how a well-constructed and diversified investment portfolio can produce superior risk-conscious performance. Second, we describe how a company's risk profile behaves when varying levels of mortality and interest-rate risk are considered. Optimality considerations are covered. At the conclusion of the session, attendees will have gained a better understanding for the everyday application of economic capital concepts in important business matters and an appreciation for ways to apply learnings to their own companies' benefit.
Source: 2009 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium
Type: concurrent
Moderators: Gregory Graves
Panelists: David Schraub, Stuart Silverman

Emerging Risks

This session will review a recent emerging risks survey, including results and how they might be used. Presenters will also discuss how an emerging risk strategy is being developed at an existing firm.
Source: 2009 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium
Type: concurrent
Moderators: Jefferson Gibbs
Panelists: Beverly Barney

Risk–Based Financial Management of Insurance Companies

Recent disclosures, by some large multinationals, show increasing use of a risk-based framework for the financial management of insurance companies. The movement toward risk-based management of insurance liabilities-which began on the life side in Europe-is now expanding to P&C and life companies, both inside and outside the United States. The emergence and formalization of economic capital now constitutes a rigorous and nimble framework for making this kind of determination. This panel will highlight key concepts of a risk-based management framework compared to a statutory or GAAP framework, compare risk-based performance metrics with more traditional metrics, and discuss some of the challenges in the application of risk-based concepts in actual practice. At the conclusion of the session, you will have gained a better appreciation for the introduction of risk concepts into business decision-making and be better equipped to apply such theory and practice in your own settings.
Source: 2009 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium
Type: concurrent
Moderators: Jefferson Gibbs
Panelists: Thomas McIntyre, Dominique Lebel

ERM Roundtable Discussion

Enterprise Risk Management is rapidly evolving to better meet the needs of firms. Join fellow attendees in this roundtable format as you share your knowledge and develop solutions to issues commonly faced by ERM practitioners. Facilitators will help guide the discussion to keep the topics varied and useful to practitioners. Topics will be determined by interest at the session, but could extend comments made at other sessions or issues of general interest. Each roundtable session is meant to be broad and not tied to issues related to a single track.
Source: 2009 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium
Type: concurrent
Panelists: Mark Abbott, Stephen Hiemstra

Differing Risk Perspective

The 2009 ERM symposium highlights select innovative cutting edge papers that explore and advance risk management topics with a focus on the analysis and practical tools related to financial and operational risks, interaction between the risks (i.e., diversification benefits), integrated ERM, and ERM value creation.
Source: 2009 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium
Type: paper
Panelists: David Ingram, Michael Lockerman, Larry Rubin, Randy Tillis, Etti Baranoff, Thomas Sager, Xiaokai Shi
Keywords: Risk

Global Insurance Regulations, Risk Management and Credit Crisis Implications

In this session, a distinguished international panel will compare and contrast the insurance regulations of Solvency II and North America and will offer their perspectives on how these regulations align with risk management principles. They will also discuss potential implications and/or changes in the global regulatory systems and these principles given the latest market crisis.
Source: 2009 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium
Type: concurrent
Moderators: Jefferson Gibbs
Panelists: Frank Sommerfeld

Advances in Opertational Risk Quantification

Quantifying operational risk for risk assessment and capital modeling purposes has been a long-standing challenge due in large part to shortages and shortcomings in historical loss data. This session will explore how combining Bayesian and stochastic modeling processes using event tree models and scenario analysis can be used to overcome these problems and help arrive at loss distributions based on all available data and expert opinion.
Source: 2009 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium
Type: concurrent
Moderators: D. Barclay
Panelists: Daniel McKinney

Implementing a Comprehensive Privacy Program

Data privacy is one of the most important elements of a regulatory compliance program. In today's increasingly global marketplace, sensitive customer and employee data is sent instantaneously across borders and often distributed to a complex network of partners, contractors and suppliers. Compounding the problem is the fact that privacy regulations vary across countries, regions and states. This session will describe Barclay's privacy initiative which has implemented a comprehensive privacy program across 60 jurisdictions world-wide. The session will discuss the successes and the pitfalls, as well as the improvements planned as part of the new implementation based on OpenPages.
Source: 2009 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium
Type: concurrent
Panelists: John Kelly, Joseph Nocera

ERM: Is There Anything Beyond the Hype?

ERM programs have been in place at many large financial institutions for several years. Yet, a surprising number of these large financial companies either have failed or are in severe economic distress due to economic risks. In this session, potential causes of first generation ERM program failures will be discussed and an example of a more bottom-line-designed ERM program structure will be presented.
Source: 2009 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium
Type: concurrent
Moderators: Jane Taylor
Panelists: Mark Homan

ERM Roundtable Discussion

Enterprise Risk Management is rapidly evolving to better meet the needs of firms. Join fellow attendees in this roundtable format as you share your knowledge and develop solutions to issues commonly faced by ERM practitioners. Facilitators will help guide the discussion to keep the topics varied and useful to practitioners. Topics will be determined by interest at the session, but could extend comments made at other sessions or issues of general interest. Each roundtable session is meant to be broad and not tied to issues related to a single track.
Source: 2009 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium
Type: concurrent
Panelists: John Dodson, Jessica Leong

Aspects of Credit Risk

The 2009 ERM symposium highlights select innovative cutting edge papers that explore and advance risk management topics with a focus on the analysis and practical tools related to financial and operational risks, interaction between the risks (i.e., diversification benefits), integrated ERM, and ERM value creation.
Source: 2009 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium
Type: paper
Panelists: Dan Rosen, James McNichols, Stephen D'Arcy, David Saunders, Xinyan Zhao
Keywords: Credit Risk

Talent Management: Identifying, Measuring, and Mitigating Risks

Most experts believe that talent management will be the principal factor in determining business success across all industries, geographies and sizes of firms. To succeed, management must focus ERM efforts on these risks, evaluating their exposures and seeking efficient mitigation techniques. In this session, experts will discuss how to identify, measure and manage/mitigate these risks. Case studies will be presented. Experts will also explore mitigating the risk of a bad hire, one of the most overlooked HR risks.
Source: 2009 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium
Type: concurrent
Panelists: Kathline Holmes